Tokenized real-world assets emerged as a rare growth market during a difficult first half for cryptocurrencies, with on-chain RWA value excluding stablecoins climbing 53% to $33 billion by mid-2026, according to rwa.xyz. The increase came as DeFi total value locked fell from $115 billion at the start of the year to $70 billion, while Bitcoin and Ether suffered steep declines under pressure from higher inflation, tighter US monetary-policy expectations and a powerful rotation into AI-linked equities.
The contrast points to a more selective use of blockchain infrastructure. Demand has increasingly centered on tokenized Treasury products, equities, private credit and trading contracts tied to traditional markets, rather than broad exposure to volatile network tokens. rwa.xyz data showed tokenized equities growing from $291 million in 2025 to $1.816 billion by mid-year, while weekly transfer volume in tokenized stocks rose from $408 million at the beginning of 2026 to $3.982 billion by mid-June.
That activity developed as crypto’s largest assets struggled to attract capital. Bitcoin ended June at $60,760, down about 20.5% for the month and more than 50% below its 52-week high of $125,500. Ether closed June at $1,606 after declining 60% over 250 days. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 15, a level associated with extreme fear.
Inflation shock reshaped rate expectations
US monetary conditions became markedly less supportive after Kevin Warsh replaced Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair in May. The Federal Open Market Committee kept its federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at its June 16-17 meeting, its fourth consecutive decision to hold rates steady.
The Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections placed 2026 real GDP growth at 2.2% and unemployment at 4.3%. Half of policymakers leaned toward rate increases in their projections, a substantial change from earlier market expectations for two or three cuts during 2026.
Inflation data added to that repricing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year in May and 0.5% from April. Producer prices for final demand rose 6.5% annually and 1.1% on the month, including a 2.8% monthly increase in final-demand goods. Core CPI increased 2.9% annually and 0.2% monthly.
The rise in prices was linked partly to an energy supply shock following disruption in the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Israel military action against Iran that began on Feb. 28. Shipping delays, insurance constraints and reduced regional oil output pushed energy costs through supply chains. Iraq’s southern production was cited as falling from 4.3 million barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day, including a 700,000-barrel-a-day reduction at the Rumaila field.
The International Energy Agency said its 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles, with 164 million barrels released by May 8. OPEC+ also announced output increases for four straight months, including an additional 188,000 barrels a day for July. Even with those measures, the IEA revised its forecast for 2026 global oil-demand growth from an increase of 1.2 million barrels a day before the conflict to a decline of 420,000 barrels a day.
CME interest-rate probabilities showed an October rate-hike probability reaching 60.7% after the June meeting. Money markets later fully priced a 25-basis-point increase by December before those expectations eased. Forecasts remained unusually divided: Bank of America projected three quarter-point increases, while CICC and CITIC expected no rate moves in 2026.
Bitcoin ETFs saw record outflow stretch
The tightening outlook coincided with persistent withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds recorded 13 consecutive trading days of net outflows between May 15 and June 3, totaling $4.4 billion, according to the figures cited in the source material. June net outflows reached $4.51 billion, the weakest monthly result since the products launched.
The selloff appeared tied more closely to macroeconomic repricing than to an internal crypto credit failure or major protocol breakdown. As financing costs rose and inflation became harder to dismiss, traders reduced exposure to assets whose valuations depend heavily on future liquidity conditions.
Crypto also faced competition from a concentrated rally in Asian semiconductor and hardware stocks. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 101.1% in the first half, Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 59.3%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 39.2%, according to the data cited. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix grew from 39% of KOSPI market value at the start of the year to 61%, while TSMC represented 42.87% of Taiwan’s market value.
The strongest AI-related equity gains came from constrained hardware supply chains rather than software. PCB and semiconductor substrate companies rose 282.8% in the first half, while memory stocks gained 243.9%. Optical networking, cloud infrastructure, foundries and data-center power suppliers also advanced sharply. Software and application-layer names fell 33.2%, suggesting capital favored businesses with scarce physical capacity and near-term pricing power.
Large technology fundraising plans added another claim on global liquidity. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic were reported to be targeting more than $200 billion in combined fundraising, compared with $45 billion raised across the entire US IPO market in 2025. Their combined target valuations were estimated at $3.6 trillion to $3.8 trillion.
Tokenized markets draw trading demand
RWA expansion has increasingly been driven by access to traditional assets through crypto-linked trading infrastructure. Four broad structures are competing for that demand: tokenized shares backed by brokerage-held securities, direct brokerage access, on-chain synthetic perpetual contracts using oracle prices, and centralized perpetual products settled in stablecoins.
The distinction has practical consequences. Fully backed tokenized wrappers aim to give holders economic exposure to an underlying asset held in custody, while perpetual contracts provide leveraged price exposure without ownership of the underlying share, commodity or currency. Some centralized platforms offer leverage of up to 20 times on these products, increasing both their liquidity appeal and their risk.
The source material cited CEX-style RWA perpetual volume rising from $12.37 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $203 billion in the second quarter of 2026. One traditional-asset perpetual product launched on Jan. 28 reportedly surpassed $153 billion in cumulative volume within two months and later reached a weekly high of $60.3 billion. By June, weekly centralized stock-derivatives volume reached a record $11.6 billion.
That growth occurred while conventional crypto trading activity faded. May spot volume was down 40% from January, while USDT-margined perpetual volume declined 18% over the same period, according to the figures provided. A venue’s RWA activity was reportedly generated through 90 pairs, compared with 588 pairs in its USDT-margined perpetual market, indicating that trading interest has concentrated around a relatively narrow set of familiar assets.
Regulatory progress has supported the migration toward more structured tokenized products. FINRA issued a custody license to Securitize, while implementation work continued around the US GENIUS Act, Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance and the European Union’s MiCA framework. Stablecoin supply fell by roughly $10 billion, or 3%, in May and June, far less than the contraction of more than 26% seen during the 2022 downturn.
RWA markets have not insulated crypto from macroeconomic pressure, but they have given blockchain-based platforms a clearer source of activity while speculative token demand weakened. With rates remaining elevated and capital still drawn to AI infrastructure, products tied to government debt, private credit, equities and commodities are receiving the clearest evidence of sustained on-chain demand.
To explore how tokenized equities and RWAs could reshape markets in 2026, read this detailed analysis next.
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