Brian Armstrong, chief executive of Coinbase, said Thursday that he expects Bitcoin to move higher over the next one to two years and believes the market has already established its low for the current cycle, tying that outlook to the next Bitcoin halving expected around 2028.
The call came with Bitcoin trading near $78,000, down 1.7% over the previous 24 hours and roughly 38% below its record high near $126,000. Armstrong’s view places the recent pullback in the context of Bitcoin’s four-year issuance cycle, in which the reward paid to miners is cut in half roughly every four years.
Bitcoin has often attracted renewed attention in the period before and after halving events, though previous cycles have produced very different price paths and sharp drawdowns. A lower rate of new coin issuance can tighten the supply entering the market, but it does not eliminate the influence of macroeconomic conditions, risk appetite, derivatives positioning or large holders selling into rallies.
Glassnode sees reduced selling near resistance
A research note published Wednesday by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode found that Bitcoin gained 23% across the 21 trading sessions through Sept. 9, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were broadly flat over the same period.
The divergence suggests Bitcoin’s recovery was driven by cryptocurrency-specific positioning rather than a broad move into risk assets. Yet the rebound slowed as the price approached an overhead range between $83,000 and $86,000, which Glassnode identified as a zone of resistance.
Resistance refers to a price area where selling has historically emerged strongly enough to slow or reverse an advance. For Bitcoin to establish a sustained recovery above the current range, traders would need to absorb supply from holders taking profits or reducing exposure after the bounce.
Glassnode said its seven-day Sell-Side Risk Ratio had fallen to 7 basis points per day, compared with 16 basis points at the August peak. The metric assesses the amount of profit and loss realized by on-chain holders relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization. Lower readings generally indicate that coins are moving with less realized financial pressure, while higher readings can signal heavier distribution or capitulation.
That easing in the ratio supports the argument that immediate selling pressure has cooled since August. It offers a more measured conclusion than treating the $80,000 area as a confirmed floor: lower realized selling can help prices stabilize, but it does not guarantee that buyers will defend a level if broader conditions deteriorate.
Bitcoin remains below the $83,000-$86,000 band that Glassnode highlighted, leaving the market between a recent recovery and a technically sensitive supply zone. A move through that area would test whether the 23% advance has drawn enough fresh demand to overcome sellers. A rejection could keep Bitcoin trading within the range that has defined the market since its retreat from the record high.
Armstrong links Bitcoin outlook to payments and tokenization
Armstrong also pointed to stablecoin payments, tokenized assets, prediction markets and agentic finance as areas he expects to shape cryptocurrency development through 2027.
His focus reflects an effort by major crypto companies to frame blockchain activity around financial infrastructure rather than speculative trading alone. Stablecoins are increasingly used for settlement and cross-border transfers, while tokenization refers to representing financial instruments or real-world assets on a blockchain. The model could allow ownership records and transfers to operate on shared digital ledgers, though adoption depends heavily on legal frameworks, custody arrangements and the willingness of traditional financial institutions to issue assets on-chain.
Prediction markets, another area highlighted by Armstrong, let users take positions on the likelihood of real-world outcomes. Their growth has brought more attention to blockchain-based applications, but also regulatory scrutiny because the products can resemble wagering or derivatives contracts depending on their design and jurisdiction.
Agentic finance is a newer term for software agents that can carry out financial tasks, such as managing payments, executing transactions under preset conditions or interacting with on-chain protocols. The concept remains early-stage and raises questions around user authorization, security and accountability when automated systems initiate transactions.
A cycle thesis faces a near-term market test
Armstrong’s one- to two-year view is a long-horizon thesis built around Bitcoin’s issuance schedule and the potential expansion of crypto-based financial services. The immediate market picture is narrower: Bitcoin has recovered sharply from recent lows, realized selling activity has eased, and a resistance zone sits several thousand dollars above the current price.
The next major test is whether the market can convert reduced sell-side pressure into sustained demand above $83,000. Until then, the evidence supports a market attempting to stabilize after a deep retreat rather than confirming that a new upward cycle is already underway.
For deeper context on BTC cycles and key levels, explore our guide here before planning your strategy.
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