Bernstein has sharply reduced its near-term outlook for Coinbase while placing greater weight on prediction markets, derivatives and blockchain-based settlement services across its coverage of Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle. The brokerage cut Coinbase’s price target to $250 from $330, retained a $160 target for Robinhood, and raised Circle’s target to $145 from $140 ahead of third-quarter earnings.
The most severe revision landed on Coinbase. Bernstein reduced its 2026 revenue forecast for the exchange operator by about 32% to $5.5 billion and now expects a full-year loss of $2.60 per share, replacing its earlier estimate of $5.97 in profit per share. The revised model reflects crypto trading volumes that have remained subdued and a market recovery that Bernstein said has not rebuilt sustained momentum.
Coinbase shares traded just above $162 on Monday, down more than 31% since the start of the year. The gap between that market price and Bernstein’s new target suggests the firm continues to see value in Coinbase’s longer-term product expansion, even as its earnings outlook has weakened substantially.
Coinbase’s trading slowdown reshapes the revenue outlook
Bernstein modeled Coinbase’s third-quarter spot trading volume at roughly $150 billion, broadly unchanged from the preceding quarter. Spot execution has historically been central to Coinbase’s transaction revenue, leaving earnings exposed when trading activity softens or shifts toward lower-fee products.
Stablecoin-related revenue was expected to provide the main source of quarterly growth, according to Bernstein. Coinbase earns revenue through its commercial relationship with Circle and the USDC stablecoin, including income related to reserves and USDC balances held on its platform. That business has helped reduce the company’s dependence on transaction fees, although it remains sensitive to interest rates, stablecoin supply and the distribution of USDC across different platforms.
Bernstein’s longer-range model gives far more prominence to prediction markets and derivatives. The firm now projects that those products could generate roughly $2 billion in annual revenue for Coinbase by 2028, compared with an estimate of about $600 million earlier this year.
That increase does not offset the near-term revenue reset, but it changes the composition of Bernstein’s long-term model. A larger derivatives and event-contract business would give Coinbase exposure to activity that may not move in lockstep with spot cryptocurrency prices. It would also place the company in more direct competition with established derivatives venues and fast-growing prediction-market platforms.
Robinhood’s model leans on event contracts
Bernstein made no change to its $160 price target for Robinhood, whose shares traded at $93.37 on Monday, down about 17.5% year to date. The brokerage’s forecast nevertheless shows a notable shift in which products it expects to drive the company’s crypto-related growth.
The firm estimates Robinhood could generate $1.7 billion in prediction-market revenue by 2028, slightly above the $1.6 billion it projects from crypto revenue in the same year. The figures suggest Bernstein sees event contracts becoming a business of comparable scale to digital-asset trading for the retail brokerage.
Event contracts allow users to take positions on defined outcomes, such as economic data releases, sports results or political events, rather than simply buying or selling an asset. Their growth has attracted regulatory scrutiny in the United States, particularly where contracts resemble gambling or touch on politically sensitive events. That regulatory uncertainty remains an important variable for any long-term revenue forecast built around the sector.
For the third quarter, Bernstein forecast event-contract volume of about 16.4 billion contracts, up 21% from the previous quarter. It projected crypto trading volume across Robinhood and Bitstamp, the exchange it acquired, at roughly $50 billion. That would remain 38% below the volume recorded in the third quarter of 2025, when the crypto bull market produced more active trading conditions.
Bernstein also estimated that Robinhood’s native blockchain generated approximately $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees during the quarter. Most of that activity was tied to memecoin trading, according to the firm’s model. Such activity can produce substantial network usage during speculative bursts, though it can also fade quickly when market attention shifts.
Circle gains support despite lower USDC supply
Circle received the only price-target increase in Bernstein’s update, rising to $145 from $140. Its shares traded around $80.50 on Monday and were up about 1.5% for the year, making Circle the only one of the three covered companies trading in positive territory at that point.
Bernstein expects Circle’s third-quarter revenue to edge up to $770 million. The forecast comes despite an anticipated decline in reserve income after USDC supply fell to about $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter. Reserve income is a central component of Circle’s business because the company earns interest on the cash and short-duration government securities backing USDC.
The brokerage pointed to activity around the Arc token presale as part of its more favorable view. Circle’s ability to build revenue beyond USDC reserves would become increasingly relevant if interest rates decline or stablecoin supply stops expanding, since both could limit the growth of income from reserve assets.
Across the three companies, Bernstein’s revisions draw a clearer distinction between current earnings pressure and the products expected to shape the next revenue cycle. Coinbase faces the sharpest adjustment because weaker spot volumes directly affect its established business. Robinhood’s forecasts increasingly depend on event contracts, while Circle’s valuation rests more heavily on stablecoin infrastructure and new network initiatives.
The projections also leave each company exposed to different risks: Coinbase to a prolonged trading slowdown, Robinhood to the regulatory treatment and durability of prediction markets, and Circle to USDC circulation and interest-rate conditions.
For deeper insight on tokenized markets and stablecoins, explore our guide on tokenized equities and stablecoins.
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