Robinhood Markets’ event-contract business generated more revenue than its crypto trading operation in the second quarter, according to a Bernstein research note, giving the brokerage a new source of digital-asset-related growth as cryptocurrency trading volumes weaken. Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and $160 price target for Robinhood, arguing that tokenized products, prediction markets and crypto infrastructure could extend the company’s business beyond spot coin trading.
The shift is visible in the revenue figures cited by Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani. Event-contract revenue reached $156 million during the second quarter, compared with $100 million from crypto trading. The gap emerged as industry-wide crypto volumes softened, prompting Bernstein to reduce its 2026 estimate for Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue by 49%.
Robinhood shares closed at $89.84 on Wednesday, a level Bernstein said represented 78% potential upside to its $160 target. The stock then fell 3.6% to close at $86.60 on Thursday, which raised the implied upside to roughly 85%, assuming the target remains unchanged.
Event contracts eclipse crypto trading revenue
Event contracts allow users to take positions on the outcome of defined real-world events, such as economic releases, sporting events or political developments. Their appeal to brokerage customers lies partly in their short duration and simple payoff structures, which differ from the open-ended price exposure of holding cryptocurrencies or equities.
Bernstein’s figures suggest Robinhood is finding demand for those products even when crypto trading activity is less favorable. The brokerage’s Rothera exchange, launched in June, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts to date, according to the note. About 2.1 billion of those contracts were processed in the second quarter.
The exchange generated $17 million in second-quarter revenue tied to that activity, Bernstein said. While the revenue contribution remains smaller than Robinhood’s broader event-contract total, the contract volume indicates that prediction-style products have become a meaningful source of engagement on the platform.
That development changes the near-term earnings mix around Robinhood’s crypto offering. Crypto trading is highly sensitive to token-price volatility and market activity, while event contracts can produce trading demand around scheduled news and recurring events. The two products can coexist, but their revenue cycles are unlikely to move in lockstep.
Bernstein did not abandon its crypto thesis for Robinhood. Instead, the firm’s updated view places less weight on a rebound in conventional crypto trading and more on products that bring blockchain tools, tokenized assets and event-based markets into the brokerage’s consumer ecosystem.
Tokenization is the next crypto growth lever
The Bernstein note identified Robinhood Chain, Stock Tokens, Robinhood Earn and the company’s Bitstamp acquisition as additional levers for its crypto business.
Robinhood Chain has recorded more than $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume and surpassed 150 million transactions since its launch, according to Bernstein. Decentralized exchange volume refers to trades conducted through blockchain-based protocols rather than through a conventional centralized order book. The transaction and volume figures point to usage beyond a limited product test, though they do not on their own show the revenue Robinhood earns from the network.
Stock Tokens are available in more than 120 countries through Robinhood Wallet, the analysts said. Tokenized stocks are blockchain-based representations designed to track or provide exposure to shares or related financial instruments. Their availability through the wallet gives Robinhood a route to distribute products internationally without relying solely on its core U.S. brokerage app.
That international dimension matters for the company’s strategy. Robinhood’s traditional equity-trading model is centered on regulated brokerage accounts, while wallet-based token products can connect the company with customers outside that structure. The model also places heavier emphasis on product design, custody arrangements and local regulatory requirements.
Robinhood Earn, another product cited by Bernstein, has attracted more than $200 million in deposits. Earn products typically let users place crypto assets into programs that generate returns, although the economics and risk profile can vary depending on how the assets are used and which entity provides the service.
The Bitstamp acquisition adds an established crypto exchange business to Robinhood’s operations. Bernstein views the deal as part of the company’s attempt to build a more complete crypto stack, spanning trading, wallet access, tokenized assets and blockchain-linked services. That approach could give Robinhood more ways to monetize customers without depending exclusively on transaction fees from coin trades.
Regulatory risks remain central to the outlook
Bernstein’s $160 target rests on a growth case that also carries substantial policy risk. The analysts listed potential changes to payment for order flow rules and crypto-trading regulation among the main threats to Robinhood’s outlook.
Payment for order flow, the practice in which market makers compensate brokers for routing customer orders, has long been important to the economics of commission-free retail brokerage. A regulatory change affecting that model could pressure revenue in Robinhood’s core equity and options operations, even if its tokenization and event-contract businesses continue to expand.
The analysts also flagged unresolved questions over whether particular crypto tokens could be treated as securities. Such classifications could affect which assets Robinhood can offer, the disclosures it must provide and the compliance structure needed for its crypto products.
Prediction markets carry their own regulatory sensitivities because event contracts can sit near the boundary between derivatives, gaming and financial products. Robinhood’s fast contract growth gives the category greater commercial relevance for the company, while making the regulatory treatment of those markets more consequential for its revenue outlook.
Bernstein’s revised estimates reflect that tension. The firm has cut its forecast for crypto trading revenue in response to weaker volumes, but it continues to see value in Robinhood’s ability to turn blockchain infrastructure and prediction-market activity into new product lines. The $156 million in quarterly event-contract revenue shows that the brokerage’s expansion is already altering the mix of businesses behind its crypto ambitions.
Explore how tokenized assets reshape trading beyond Robinhood—discover the mechanics, benefits, and risks in our deep dive on tokenized equities.
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