Trade.xyz has launched its prediction-market product on Hyperliquid’s mainnet, introducing event-based contracts that derive pricing from the platform’s existing perpetual futures markets instead of external oracle feeds. The product, now called Events, is the third prediction-market application built under Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 framework, following Outcome.xyz and Skew Markets.
The early rollout is modest, recording $180,000 in trading volume from 263 users during its first week, according to Trade.xyz. Yet the structure offers a distinct approach for contracts linked to stocks, commodities, pre-IPO assets, sports, politics and economic outcomes: event prices for financial markets can be based on liquidity already available in Trade.xyz’s HIP-3 perpetual markets.
This model could make Events particularly relevant for Hyperliquid users already trading perpetual contracts on the platform. Rather than moving collateral to a separate prediction-market venue or relying on an outside pricing source, users can trade event outcomes alongside derivatives positions held within the same trading environment.
Events begins with 34 markets
Trade.xyz initially released the product through a “Predict” page featuring 34 events across Finance, Sports and other categories. The company began formally promoting the service on Friday, saying it had adopted the Events name and intended to add more contract categories and market formats.
Prediction markets let traders take positions on whether a specified event will occur, with contracts generally settling at a fixed value if the outcome is correct and zero if it is not. Their usefulness depends heavily on market depth, pricing quality and settlement mechanics, especially in financial markets where prices can move rapidly after news breaks.
Trade.xyz’s initial design seeks to connect event contracts to its perpetual markets for selected financial underlyings. The company said contracts involving stocks, commodities and pre-IPO assets will use pricing derived from its on-platform HIP-3 markets.
HIP-3 is Hyperliquid’s framework for permissionless perpetual futures deployment. Linking an event market to those trading books gives Trade.xyz a route to use existing market activity as a pricing input, though it also ties the quality of event pricing to the liquidity and resilience of the underlying perpetual markets.
The model differs from prediction markets that depend on external data providers, exchange prices or published reference rates to determine probabilities or settle contracts. Trade.xyz has not positioned Events as a replacement for conventional oracle-based settlement systems; its initial financial-market contracts are designed around Hyperliquid-native pricing.
Fee schedule favors active takers
Trade.xyz’s documentation says Events follows Hyperliquid’s Outcome Trading fee schedule and does not add a separate project-level fee in its initial configuration. The base fee is 0.07% for takers, whose orders immediately execute against existing liquidity, and 0.04% for makers, whose orders add liquidity to the book.
Fees decline according to a user’s trailing 14-day weighted volume. At the highest tier, taker fees fall to 0.025%, while maker fees reach zero. Users who stake HYPE can receive discounts of up to 40%, according to the documentation.
The platform charges fees when a position closes or reaches final settlement, rather than when a trader first opens a contract. Maker orders do not receive rebates under the initial structure.
That approach creates a straightforward headline cost for takers. On a $100 trade, the base 0.07% taker fee would amount to roughly $0.07, assuming the trade closes at a comparable notional value.
Polymarket uses probability-based fees
Polymarket publishes a different fee model. Its maker trades are fee-free and can qualify for rebates ranging from 15% to 25%, while taker fees vary by category and probability price.
According to Polymarket’s published formula, its taker fee is calculated as C × feeRate × p × (1-p), where p represents the contract’s probability price. The schedule lists a 0.07% parameter for Crypto markets, 0.05% for Sports, Economics, Culture, Weather and Other, and 0.04% for Finance, Politics, Mentions and Tech. Geopolitics markets are listed as fee-free.
Trade.xyz’s comparison estimates that a $100 Polymarket taker trade priced at a 50% probability would cost about $1 in a 0.04% category, $1.25 in a 0.05% category and $1.75 in a 0.07% category. Under Trade.xyz’s base taker rate, the comparable fee would be about $0.07.
The gap narrows for Polymarket contracts priced far from 50%, because the p × (1-p) component falls as probabilities approach zero or one. Trade.xyz’s example places a $100 Finance or Politics trade at roughly $0.36 at a 90% probability, $0.19 at 95%, and $0.04 at 99%.
The comparison changes for liquidity providers. Polymarket’s fee-free maker execution and rebates can offer an advantage to traders willing to leave orders on the book, while Trade.xyz’s base maker fee remains 0.04% until volume tiers and HYPE staking discounts apply.
Liquidity remains the immediate test
The first-week figures show that Events has yet to establish meaningful scale. Its $180,000 in volume and 263 users place it well behind established prediction-market venues and also behind some newer Hyperliquid-based products that attracted several million dollars of early trading activity.
Low initial volume does not determine the product’s long-term prospects, but it has practical consequences for early users. A lower displayed fee does not necessarily produce a lower total trading cost if thin order books create wide bid-ask spreads or substantial price slippage on larger orders.
Events will need consistent market makers and deeper participation for its fee structure and unified Hyperliquid balance to translate into competitive execution. The product’s near-term opportunity lies with traders already active in HIP-3 perpetuals, who can use the same platform infrastructure to take positions on event outcomes without shifting funds across venues.
Want to trade similar on-chain predictions? Try Toobit’s low-fee event contracts and compare structures.
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