JPMorgan estimates that roughly $50 billion has entered digital assets so far this year, lifting the annualized pace of inflows to about $66 billion as cryptocurrency ETF demand recovered and institutional futures positioning strengthened ahead of the fourth quarter.
The estimate, published in a Wednesday report led by JPMorgan managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, marks an improvement from the $52 billion annualized pace the bank calculated in May. It remains well below the pace recorded last year, however, running at roughly half that level.
JPMorgan’s figures point to a market increasingly supported by several channels rather than a single source of demand. Its flow model combines cryptocurrency fund flows, the trading impulse implied by CME futures activity, venture-capital fundraising, and digital-asset purchases by publicly listed miners and corporate treasuries. The bank expanded the model this year to include private corporate treasuries, private miners and government-related entities.
That broader measurement captures a changing market structure. Public companies buying bitcoin, institutional participation in regulated futures and funding for blockchain businesses now sit alongside ETF subscriptions as factors shaping capital flows into the sector.
Etf demand turns positive after midyear outflows
Crypto ETF flows were a drag during the first half of the year, according to JPMorgan, as substantial withdrawals in May and June offset earlier activity. The picture began improving in August, with ETF flows turning positive on a year-to-date basis.
The recovery has supported the bank’s more constructive near-term flow estimate, though the ETF data also shows how sensitive the category remains to market conditions. Cumulative ETF flows were still negative when measured from the cryptocurrency market decline that began on Oct. 10, 2025, JPMorgan said.
That distinction places the recent pickup in context. Positive flows since the start of the calendar year do not necessarily indicate that all capital withdrawn during the prior market drawdown has returned. Instead, ETF demand appears to have rebuilt following a weak spring and early summer period.
JPMorgan also reported that institutional positions in bitcoin and ether futures listed on CME have risen over the past two months after a muted start to the year. Bitcoin futures positioning exceeded its previous peak, while ether positioning approached the high reached in October 2025.
CME futures are widely used by professional market participants seeking regulated exposure or hedging tools. Higher positioning can reflect directional demand, hedging activity or relative-value strategies, so it does not provide a simple measure of bullish sentiment. In combination with improving ETF flows, though, it indicates that regulated market venues have contributed more to the recent recovery in digital-asset flows.
Leverage has eased from post-correction highs
JPMorgan found that leverage indicators in offshore perpetual futures markets have declined since the highs reached after the Oct. 10 correction. The bank measures leverage through open interest relative to the market value of bitcoin and ether.
The decline suggests that some of the most aggressive derivatives exposure built during the earlier rebound has been reduced. Leverage readings remain above their long-term averages, JPMorgan said, leaving derivatives markets more active than they have typically been over a longer historical period.
The bank’s momentum indicators also showed trend-following traders, including commodity trading advisors, rebuilding long positions in bitcoin and ether. Such strategies generally respond to sustained price direction rather than making discretionary calls on cryptocurrency fundamentals. Their return can reinforce an existing market move, but trend-following capital can also reverse when prices break lower or volatility rises.
The combination of rising CME participation, recovering ETF flows and rebuilding systematic long positions helps explain why JPMorgan sees the flow run rate accelerating into the fourth quarter. The evidence describes improving institutional participation, though it does not establish that traditional financial firms alone are directing daily market moves or that higher flows guarantee a price floor.
Corporate buying and venture funding shape the first half
During the first half, JPMorgan said inflows were led primarily by bitcoin purchases from Strategy and fundraising by cryptocurrency venture firms. Strategy accounted for a large portion of public-company treasury buying early in the year through rapid bitcoin acquisitions.
The report described public corporate treasuries as substantially larger buyers than private treasuries. JPMorgan linked the difference to private companies’ more limited financing choices and lower tolerance for bitcoin’s price volatility.
Public treasury companies have financed digital-asset purchases through common-stock issuance, debt and preferred shares. JPMorgan said the funding mix has gradually shifted away from debt and toward preferred shares. That approach can reduce the need for conventional borrowing but creates fixed dividend or interest obligations that companies must meet, raising the cost of maintaining large treasury positions.
Miners, by contrast, were net sellers this year, with JPMorgan estimating total net sales at about $1.8 billion. The selling was concentrated among publicly listed miners, which shifted from accumulating bitcoin to selling newly produced coins and, in some cases, reducing existing holdings.
JPMorgan attributed that change partly to spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Mining operators with access to power capacity and data-center sites have increasingly weighed the economics of dedicating resources to computing workloads rather than retaining all mined bitcoin on their balance sheets. The result is that miners have supplied coins to the market even as treasury companies have added to holdings.
Funding concentrates in established firms and infrastructure
Venture funding has improved from 2024, JPMorgan said, although capital has been concentrated in fewer and larger financing rounds led by established firms. The pattern suggests that funders are placing greater emphasis on companies with operating histories and clearer commercial paths rather than distributing capital broadly across early-stage token projects.
The report also identified a shift in infrastructure financing from equity toward debt, particularly for businesses with more predictable cash flows. Debt financing can suit firms whose operations generate recurring revenue, while equity remains more common for companies still developing products or pursuing uncertain growth opportunities.
Tokenization has drawn increased funding attention as well, chiefly in business-to-business applications, according to JPMorgan. That focus centers on systems designed to issue, manage or settle tokenized forms of traditional financial assets and related enterprise services, rather than consumer-facing cryptocurrency products.
JPMorgan’s $66 billion annualized estimate therefore rests on a mixed set of forces: revived ETF demand and stronger regulated futures activity on one side, corporate treasury accumulation and firmer venture funding on the other, partly offset by miner selling. The fourth-quarter outlook depends on whether those recovering ETF and institutional flows can continue while companies face the financing costs associated with maintaining large digital-asset holdings.
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