Grayscale sees Bitcoin bottom and advises allocation

Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl said Bitcoin’s decline to roughly $58,000 around June 30 marked the low point of the current bear-market phase in the firm’s market-cycle framework, and that Grayscale is now advising clients to maintain allocations to the asset class.

Speaking during an interview at Avalanche Summit in New York, Pandl said Grayscale’s view rests on three factors: Bitcoin’s long-term structural trend, the market’s position in its cycle, and the macroeconomic environment. In his assessment, all three have moved above the firm’s threshold for recommending exposure.

Bitcoin traded above $76,000 early Thursday, rising 0.8% over the preceding 24 hours. The price remained about 39% below its reported all-time high near $126,000, illustrating the gap between a potential cyclical bottom and a full recovery to previous peak levels.

Pandl’s comments place Grayscale among the firms treating the June selloff as a completed bear-market leg rather than the start of a deeper downturn. That conclusion does not remove the risk of further volatility, but it gives the asset manager a defined reference point for judging whether subsequent weakness represents a new breakdown or a pullback within a recovering market.

Grayscale’s allocation framework

Pandl said Grayscale does not base allocation recommendations on price direction alone. Its first consideration is the long-term structural case for Bitcoin, including digital-asset adoption and the asset’s fixed supply model. Bitcoin’s issuance schedule limits the eventual supply to 21 million coins, a feature frequently cited by supporters as a form of digital scarcity.

The second factor is the market cycle. Pandl said Grayscale considers the market to have already passed through a bear phase, with the approximately $58,000 level serving as the cycle low in its present framework. That view implies the firm sees the sharp decline as a period of capitulation and repricing rather than a signal that the longer-term case for the asset has weakened.

The third factor is the macro backdrop. Pandl did not provide a detailed list of economic indicators during the interview, but said Grayscale’s current assessment of global conditions supports maintaining client allocations. Bitcoin has often traded as a high-volatility risk asset in periods of tight financial conditions, even as advocates portray it as a hedge against currency debasement and fiscal instability over longer horizons.

Combining those three elements, Pandl said Grayscale has crossed its internal bar for recommending exposure to the digital-asset class. The stance reflects a portfolio-allocation judgment rather than a near-term price forecast.

A bottom call shared by another industry executive

Pandl’s assessment echoed comments made by Brian Armstrong, chief executive of Coinbase, on Sept. 10. Armstrong said Bitcoin had bottomed for the current cycle and predicted a two-year upward trend leading into the next halving.

The two executives are approaching the market from different positions: Pandl leads research at a major digital-asset investment manager, while Armstrong runs a cryptocurrency trading platform. Their statements nevertheless point to a similar reading of the recent correction: that Bitcoin’s largest drawdown in the current phase may have already occurred.

Such calls should be treated as market views, not confirmations. Bitcoin has historically experienced substantial rebounds and reversals within broader cycles, and a price floor becomes clear only in hindsight. The $58,000 level is therefore more useful as a benchmark for Grayscale’s strategy than as a guaranteed support level for the market.

Bitcoin’s position near $76,000 also leaves the asset materially below its previous record. That distance can create room for sharp moves in either direction, particularly when macroeconomic data, monetary-policy expectations, or risk appetite shift quickly.

Zcash discussion turns to privacy and auditability

Pandl also used the Avalanche Summit appearance to discuss Zcash, a cryptocurrency Grayscale has offered through an investment product for about nine years. He described Zcash as a distinct proposition from Bitcoin because of its focus on transaction privacy.

Bitcoin’s blockchain records transaction activity on a public ledger. Addresses are pseudonymous rather than directly tied to names, but transaction flows can often be analyzed using blockchain-tracing tools. Zcash was designed to allow users to shield information such as the sender, recipient, and transaction amount when using its privacy features.

Pandl said that greater privacy comes with reduced auditability compared with Bitcoin’s transparent design. The trade-off has practical implications. Public blockchains allow market participants, researchers, and compliance firms to inspect transaction histories, while privacy-preserving systems make that work more difficult when shielded transactions are used.

He linked renewed attention toward privacy tools to expanding concerns over data protection as artificial intelligence systems become more capable. AI development has increased the value of large data sets and sharpened public concern over how personal and financial information can be collected, linked, and analyzed.

That does not make privacy-focused tokens interchangeable with Bitcoin. They carry different technical designs, liquidity profiles, regulatory considerations, and adoption patterns. Pandl’s remarks instead frame Zcash as a long-running privacy-focused asset that may draw interest from users concerned with transaction surveillance and financial-data exposure.

Grayscale’s position ultimately rests on a measured but constructive view of Bitcoin’s cycle: the firm sees adoption and scarcity supporting the long-term case, the June decline as the bear-market low, and current macro conditions as sufficient to support client allocations. The $58,000 mark will remain the clearest test of that thesis if the market faces another sustained downturn.