Crypto markets gained in the month after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, a result that left major parts of federal digital-asset policy unresolved while preserving existing rules for stablecoin rewards and exchange operations. In a memo published Wednesday, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said Bitcoin rose nearly 11% and Ether gained about 12% in the 30 days following the Sept. 15 vote, when a motion to advance the bill failed 49-50.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached about $2.95 trillion during that period, according to figures cited by Hougan, up nearly 11% from roughly $2.65 trillion on Sept. 15. Some smaller tokens posted sharper gains, though the memo focused on the broad resilience of the market rather than individual asset moves.
The performance complicates the view that crypto prices require a major legislative breakthrough to sustain a rally. Bitcoin had already moved from a July low of $57,950 to above $80,000 in early September, according to the market data cited in the supplied material, even as prediction-market odds of the Clarity Act advancing fell from 39% to 18%.
Stablecoin rewards remain under existing rules
Hougan identified stablecoin rewards as one of the clearest immediate consequences of the bill’s failure to progress. He wrote that the final version of the Clarity Act would have prohibited platforms from paying customer interest or yield on stablecoin balances.
With the legislation stalled, those offerings remain governed by the existing framework under the GENIUS Act, Hougan said. That leaves platforms with greater flexibility to compete for stablecoin users through reward programs, a feature that has become increasingly important as dollar-pegged tokens are used for trading, payments and onchain lending.
The outcome also avoids an immediate federal restriction on a business model that links stablecoin issuers, payment applications and trading platforms. Such rewards can resemble interest-bearing cash products to users, while providers may generate returns from reserve assets, lending arrangements or other services. The absence of a new statutory ban leaves those arrangements subject to the rules already in force rather than a separate restriction written into the Clarity Act.
National licensing route remains unresolved
The Senate vote also delayed a proposed national licensing pathway for crypto businesses. Hougan wrote that the Clarity Act could have reduced barriers for new exchange competitors by giving firms a federal route to operate rather than requiring them to navigate a patchwork of state-level rules and licenses.
A national system could have changed the competitive landscape for firms seeking to offer trading services across the United States. Without it, companies continue to face varying state requirements, particularly in areas such as money-transmission licensing and consumer-protection rules.
Hougan also pointed to provisions that would have limited firms combining exchange and brokerage services. Those restrictions could have forced operational separation among businesses that currently handle several functions within a single corporate structure, including matching trades, custody and customer execution.
The bill’s failure therefore preserved the present market structure in the near term. Established platforms retain their existing operating arrangements, while prospective challengers do not receive the simpler federal entry route contemplated by the legislation.
SEC actions move faster than Congress
The lack of progress in Congress has not prevented federal agencies from acting. Days after the Sept. 15 vote, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued what was described as a five-year “innovation exemption,” allowing limited trading of tokenized U.S. stocks through onchain platforms.
Tokenized stocks are blockchain-based representations tied to traditional securities. The SEC action would allow a more controlled route for platforms seeking to test how U.S. equities can trade and settle through blockchain infrastructure, rather than waiting for a comprehensive crypto-market law to define every rule.
SEC staff also updated its guidance on token buybacks in an FAQ issued last week. The staff said that announcing a buyback for an already functioning crypto network would not, by itself, make a token sale an investment contract.
That clarification addresses a recurring concern for token issuers. Buybacks can be interpreted by market participants as a signal that a team intends to support a token’s value, but the SEC staff’s position indicates that the announcement alone does not determine the legal character of a transaction. The surrounding facts, including how the network operates and how tokens are offered, would still shape the analysis.
Policy durability remains the unresolved issue
Hougan cautioned that agency-led progress carries a different kind of policy risk from legislation. Rules established by statute generally require Congress to change them, while agency priorities can shift with new leadership and future administrations.
That distinction places greater weight on the decisions of the SEC and other regulators while Congress remains divided on market-structure legislation. Agencies can offer exemptions, guidance and enforcement positions more quickly than lawmakers can negotiate a comprehensive bill, but those measures may not provide the same long-term certainty for businesses building products over several years.
The market’s post-vote rise suggests traders have not treated the Senate setback as an immediate threat to crypto demand. Yet the policy outcome is less a resolution than a continuation of the current arrangement: stablecoin rewards remain available under existing rules, exchange structures remain largely intact, and regulators retain substantial influence over how tokenization, trading and token issuances develop in the United States.
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