Friday's 162,000 jobs print took 81,000. The holiday tape is sitting under 80,000.
The tape as of late Monday in New York, already Tuesday morning in Taipei, is a Labor Day session with US cash markets closed. Bitcoin is changing hands near 79,051, down about 0.7% over 24 hours, after a session range of about 78,707 to 80,494. Market cap is near 1.59 trillion. Total crypto market cap is near 2.68 trillion. Dominance is back near 59.1%. Ether is near 2,484. Solana is near 103.91. XRP is near 1.40. Fear and Greed is 71, greed, down from 73. Twenty-four-hour volume is near 77 billion.
That is not the Thursday squeeze. Thursday tagged 81,000 for a third time with payrolls still unreleased. Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics print was 162,000 jobs in August against a consensus near 56,000. Some venue prints tagged a four-month high near 82,240 before the number, then bitcoin fell more than 2% toward 79,300 within minutes of 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The seven-day CoinGecko range sits about 76,591 to 81,731. The 30-day change is still about plus 21.5%. The week is about plus 0.5%. The structure that failed in August is the structure that failed again on the first real data test of September: no weekly or monthly close above 82,000 to 83,000.
Monday adds two overlays the jobs print did not have. US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday. A federated bitcoin sidechain had about 4,000 coins leave its reserve wallet on Sunday. Neither is a layer-one consensus failure. Both are reasons a holiday bid under 80,000 should not be mistaken for absorption.
What Friday actually printed
Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August. Reuters consensus was 56,000. July was revised to plus 21,000 from the originally reported minus 23,000. Unemployment held at 4.1%. The labor force rose about 683,000 and participation rebounded to 61.6% from 61.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month. The year-over-year wage print eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. That last line is the only soft joint in an otherwise firm report. ADP had already printed plus 38,000 private jobs. The gap between a soft private survey and a 162,000 establishment print is why desks that had called payrolls a warm-up still had to reprice the front end.
The Dow dropped about 226 points. Gold gave back the Waller spike, with Friday prints near 4,419 to 4,444 after the midweek run toward 4,490 to 4,500. Tokenized gold is near 4,411 as of this writing. The two-year yield tagged its highest level since January 2025. Cash Treasuries are closed today, so Monday is not a confirmation session for the long end. The 10-year had been near 4.77% to 4.79% through Wednesday. The curve that actually trades bitcoin is still Friday's two-year plus whatever oil does to the inflation path.
CME FedWatch as of Monday sits near 58.4% to 58.6% for a 25 basis point hike to 3.75% to 4.00% at the September 15 to 16 meeting, with a hold near 41.4%. Some Friday prints ran to about 59% to 62% immediately after the release. Waller had cut odds toward a coin flip on Thursday. The jobs number put the hike back on the table without taking CPI off it. Wages did not accelerate. The establishment survey did. Oil is still the item that can turn a labor beat into an inflation problem before September 11.
The holiday tape is not a new bid
Labor Day closed US equities, Treasuries, and the creation window. There is no Monday ETF print. Spot is trading a three-day-old flow number, a two-day-old jobs number, and a weekend of geopolitics.
Ether is holding the 2,480s after tagging about 2,526 on the seven-day high, still under the 2,500 handle it lost after the squeeze. Solana's seven-day range is about 97.65 to 107.08; it is back near 104 and lagging. XRP is testing 1.40 after Thursday's run through 1.45. BNB is near 740. Cardano is near 0.221. The Thursday breadth that lifted Cardano 13% and XRP 9% is gone. Dominance at 59.1% versus about 57.6% on the squeeze day is the market shrinking back into bitcoin share, not expanding into an alt follow-through.
Zcash was the weekend exception: a privacy-coin run with a listed product taking in tens of millions over several sessions, one count putting the converted trust above 430 million in assets. That is a satellite bid. It is not the 79,000 tape. Jupiter had a one-day spike in the same window. Treat both as leverage and narrative, not as confirmation that the complex rotated.
Derivatives activity is still doing more work than spot. One Monday snapshot had derivatives volume near 7.9 times spot with a fear-greed reading still in greed. That combination is how a 78,700 to 80,500 holiday range turns into a flush if CPI is hot, and how it turns into another squeeze if CPI is not. It is not organic accumulation.
Waller bought Thursday. Payrolls spent it. CPI still owns the vote
Waller told markets Thursday that if August inflation keeps progressing he is inclined to hold. He did not cancel a hike if the inflation data come in hot. Chair Kevin Warsh still owns 2% as firm and fixed. Governor Barr had already said that if inflation does not moderate soon it will be time to hike. Friday's labor print is backdrop, the way Waller said employment is backdrop. It removed the soft-jobs argument for a pause. It did not replace the inflation constraint.
President Trump demanded lower rates on the same afternoon the 162,000 print landed. Futures still price a hike near 58% to 59% into a closed cash session. That is the committee being read as data-responsive, not as politically compliant. The next two prints that can move that number are producer prices on Thursday, September 10, and consumer prices on Friday, September 11. The FOMC sits September 15 to 16. A Senate cloture vote on market-structure legislation is still on the mid-month calendar. None of those items trade on Labor Day.
ISM services prices paid at 72.6, a four-year high, is still on the table. July headline PCE was 3.7% versus 3.6%. Core was 3.3% as expected. Waller's three-month core path, 4.76% in February down to 3.05% through July, is the hold case. Warsh's 65 months of elevated inflation is the hike case. Payrolls did not settle that argument. They made the hold case narrower.
Oil went up on Saturday. Gold already went down on Friday
US Central Command confirmed strikes on three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday: Downy, Stark 1, and Kylo, near Kharg Island, Jask, and the Gulf of Oman. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it targeted six vessels in retaliation. WTI prints near 92.72. Brent prints near 96.28. September crude is up more than 6% on some counts from the early-month base, with oil still above 90 after weeks of impaired Hormuz traffic.
That is imported inflation sitting on top of a 162,000 jobs beat. Higher oil feeds the prices-paid survey Waller downplayed and Warsh will not. A squeeze to 81,000 with oil above 90 was the market choosing a voter for a few hours. A holiday session under 80,000 with oil closer to 93 to 96 is the market remembering the barrel.
Gold's Friday drop was a real-yield event after the two-year jumped, not a collapse in official demand. The midweek Waller bid to 4,500 did not survive 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Tokenized gold near 4,411 is the post-payrolls level, not the pre-payrolls level. Bitcoin blinked less than gold on the yield move, which is a relative statement, not a bid. Both are still trading the same constraint: sticky inflation plus a chair who will not pre-commit to a cut.
Treasury's doubled long-end buybacks, 2 billion to at least 4 billion per operation, still start Wednesday, September 9, through November 4. Cash bonds are closed today. The first operation is a liquidity event for the 10-to-30-year sector, not a Monday crypto flow. If the long end actually cheapens after the first prints, that is the Bessent channel from August. If 30-year yields ignore the larger size the way they ignored Warsh's Jackson Hole language, bitcoin is still trading the front end and the barrel.
Flows: Thursday was 731 million. Friday was 175 million. Monday is closed
US spot bitcoin ETF data through Friday, September 4, the last completed session:
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September 4: plus 174.6 million. IBIT plus 117.4 million. Fidelity plus 57.2 million. Every other tracked issuer flat
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September 3: plus 730.8 million to 730.9 million, the largest day since January 14. IBIT plus about 454 million, more than 60% of the session. ARK plus about 138 million. Fidelity plus about 74 million. Category net assets printed about 103.3 billion that day
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September 2: plus 101.15 million
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September 1: minus 236.46 million, IBIT minus about 201 million
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August 31: plus 216.7 million
The week through Friday is about plus 986.7 million to 986.9 million, the third straight week of heavy inflows. Three-week total is about 3.8 billion, the strongest such run of 2026. Category net assets were about 101.3 billion by the September 5 close, off the Thursday 103.3 billion mark as price gave back the squeeze. Cumulative inflows since January 2024 are about 55.4 billion to 55.6 billion. Year-to-date the bitcoin complex is still about 1 billion negative. That last line is the one the weekly streak does not erase.
IBIT supplied 454 million of Thursday and 117 million of Friday. Two-day IBIT is more than half a billion after a 201 million redemption on September 1. Concentration is the market. A 731 million day with price through 80,000 is regulated demand. A 175 million day with price already sliding toward 79,700 after payrolls is the same complex slowing into the number. Monday cannot confirm either print.
Ether spot products took in about 218.4 million on the week, down about 74% from 824.4 million the week before. Thursday was plus 141.4 million. Friday was plus 25.9 million with Fidelity red against BlackRock green. XRP products took in about 19 million on the week, down about 83% from 110.5 million, still an eight-week streak and about 1.68 billion cumulative with assets near 1.48 billion. Solana products went from a Tuesday bid near 102 million earlier in the stretch to about 6.4 million on Thursday and about 5.2 million of outflows on Friday. The rotation last week was into bitcoin products, not across the complex. That is consistent with dominance back at 59%.
Thursday's 81,000 print now has its flow confirmation: 731 million, IBIT-led, largest since mid-January. Friday's loss of 80,000 also has its flow confirmation: 175 million, still green, not enough to hold the squeeze through 162,000 jobs. The honest sequence is creations arrived, then the data arrived, then price went back under the door it had tagged three times.
4,000 coins left a federation wallet. Bitcoin's base layer did not
On Sunday, September 6, actors claiming to be white hats moved about 4,000 bitcoin, near 320 million dollars, out of the Liquid Network federation reserve through a peg-out. The wallet held about 4,200 coins. About 95% left. The coins sat at an on-chain address with a signed message asking the operator to make contact.
The federation's 11-of-15 keys were not reported as compromised. The peg-out authorization key used at the conversion desk was not reported as stolen. The failure, as described by the technology provider and the conversion venue, is an inflation bug in the open-source software under the sidechain: unbacked wrapped bitcoin was created, then presented through a valid peg-out flow, and the reserve released real coins. Other assets on that chain, including tether, were described as unaffected. Bridge nodes were disabled. Exchanges paused or prepared to pause wrapped-bitcoin deposits and withdrawals.
As of Monday the operator said bridge nodes were patched. The actors said they would return most of the coins after every node installed the fix. The coins had not been returned at the time of that statement. Until the reserve matches legitimate outstanding wrapped bitcoin one-for-one, that network is a halted federation, not a functioning two-way peg.
This is counterparty and implementation risk on a federated sidechain used as a settlement layer. It is not a bitcoin consensus failure. It is also not nothing. A 320 million dollar reserve hole on a network exchanges use for faster settlement is exactly the class of event protection funds are not designed to pretreat as "the chain is fine." BitMart's wind-down remains the reminder that exchange-as-the-problem is a different bucket. This one is software-as-the-problem underneath a valid withdrawal. Do not staple it to the 79,000 print as the cause. Do not ignore it as plumbing that cannot leak into confidence if the coins do not come back.
Levels into a closed session and an open inflation week
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Spot now: about 79,051, under 80,000, inside Friday's post-print band. The 24-hour range 78,707 to 80,494 is a holiday coil, not a reclaim
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Failed test: 81,000 to 81,500 from August 25, August 28, and September 3 to 4. Friday's spike toward 82,000 to 82,240 was the fourth look and the first one that had to live with 162,000 jobs. It did not
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Confirmation that still has not printed: weekly and then monthly close above 82,000 to 83,000, the 365-day average and the trend-change line August failed. About 1.05 million coins held by long-term holders still have cost basis in the 83,000 to 86,000 band
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Immediate resistance: 80,000, then 81,200 to 81,500, then 82,000 to 83,000. One desk flagged a sell wall near 82,850. A weekly close back above the 50-week average near 79,718 is constructive only if it survives CPI. A Monday print at 79,051 is not that close
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Immediate support: 78,700 session low, then 78,000 to 78,400, then 77,500 to 77,165. The week's low near 76,591 to 76,399 is still the line that invalidates the late-August recovery structure
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Below that: 75,500 to 75,968, then the moving-average cluster near 72,000 to 73,000 (50-day and 200-day area), then 70,300
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Calendar: Tuesday is the first post-holiday cash session. Wednesday is the first doubled long-end buyback. Thursday is producer prices. Friday is consumer prices. The FOMC is the following week. Size for September 11, not for a Labor Day wick
Fear and Greed in the 70s with price under the door it just tagged is the usual setup for a second liquidation map. If funding is extreme and open interest rebuilt into 80,000 before CPI, the next flush is longs. If the holiday range dies quietly into 78,000, the next squeeze still needs 82,000 to 83,000 on more than one issuer's creations to become a trend.
Alpha watch
The squeeze had its data test. It failed the hold, not the month
August gained about 25% and still failed a close above 82,000 to 83,000. Thursday tagged 81,000 for a third time. Friday tagged the low 82,000s and gave them back on 162,000 jobs. The 30-day change near plus 22% is the rebound. The seven-day change near plus 0.5% is the digestion. Do not upgrade the structure because the month is still green.
731 million is real. It is also Thursday
The largest bitcoin ETF day since January 14 arrived the session bitcoin broke 80,000. That is the regulated bid showing up on time, IBIT-heavy, with ARK and Fidelity in the same print. Friday's 175 million while price lost the handle is the same bid refusing to chase 82,000 through a labor surprise. Year-to-date still negative by about 1 billion is why three strong weeks are a recovery, not a new regime.
Payrolls removed the soft-labor pause. They did not decide September 16
162,000 versus 56,000 is not a rounding error. Wages at 3.1% year over year are not an acceleration. Waller still votes inflation. Warsh still owns 2%. Oil at 93 to 96 after Saturday's tanker strikes is the item that can turn a labor beat into a prices-paid problem. Producer prices Thursday and consumer prices Friday are the remaining summary statistics. A 58% hike odds print on a holiday Monday is a parked number, not a decision.
Sidechain reserves are not the base layer. They are still reserves
Four thousand coins leaving a federation wallet through a valid peg-out of unbacked wrapped bitcoin is an implementation failure, not a bitcoin bug. Until the coins return and the peg is one-for-one, treat that network as halted infrastructure. Do not use it as a reason to sell 79,000. Do not use "white hat" as a synonym for "funds are safe."
The buyback is Wednesday. The cash market was closed today
Doubled long-end operations start September 9. Labor Day means Monday cannot show whether 30-year yields care. August's lesson still applies: bitcoin traded the long end when Warsh was hawkish and 30-year yields barely moved. If this week's larger size actually cheapens the long end while CPI is still ahead, that is a liquidity overlay. If it does not, the tape stays a front-end and oil tape.
Breadth died when the jobs print landed
Ether, Solana, and XRP all lost the Thursday extension. Ether and XRP weekly ETF inflows compressed 74% and 83%. Solana products flipped to modest Friday outflows. Dominance back at 59% is the complex telling you the bid that remains is bitcoin-product bid, not alt season. Zcash is a listed-product satellite. It is not a market breadth signal.
Bottom line
As of this writing bitcoin is near 79,051, ether near 2,484, Solana near 104, XRP at 1.40, gold near 4,411, oil in the low-to-mid 90s, and the total market near 2.68 trillion. Friday's payrolls were 162,000 against 56,000. The 81,000 squeeze did not hold. Spot bitcoin ETFs still took in about 987 million on the week and 731 million on Thursday, with IBIT on both sides of September's largest days. US cash is closed for Labor Day. Saturday added tanker strikes. Sunday added a 320 million dollar sidechain reserve hole that is patched on paper and not yet made whole.
The unfinished argument from August 31 is narrower, not resolved. Exceptional month. No confirmation close. Thursday's squeeze reopened 81,000 with genuine creations. Friday's labor print closed it. Hold 78,000 through producer prices and consumer prices and the absorption story gets a third life under a 58% hike-odds overlay. Lose 76,600 on a hot inflation mix with oil still bid, and this is another lower high into a red September. Reclaim 82,000 to 83,000 after September 11 on more than one issuer's creations, and the first reading from late August finally gets the test payrolls denied. Between those, it is a holiday range sitting on top of an inflation week.
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