Bitcoin entered the final week of August near its strongest level since mid-May after closing a weekly candle above its 50-week exponential moving average, a long-term technical marker it had not reclaimed since November 2025. The move followed a five-day advance that took the price as high as $79,550 before Bitcoin ended the week at $77,727, close to the 50-week EMA level of $77,752.
The rally put Bitcoin roughly 22% higher for August and left the market consolidating around $77,500 over the weekend. CoinGlass data cited in the market update characterized the month as Bitcoin’s strongest August performance since 2017, though the late-month advance also brings the asset into a week dominated by US monetary-policy signals and inflation data.
Bitcoin’s rise above the 50-week EMA carries technical weight because the indicator is often used to gauge whether a recovery has developed beyond a short-lived bounce. A sustained position above the average would place Bitcoin back in a range last seen before its mid-year decline, while a reversal below it could turn the same level into near-term resistance.
Cost-basis data places focus on the $68,000 to $73,000 range
Onchain data cited from CryptoQuant showed Bitcoin had moved back above several cost-basis levels associated with recent and longer-term buyers. The aggregate cost basis for short-term holders — wallets holding a UTXO, or unspent transaction output, for fewer than 155 days — stood near $68,700.
CryptoQuant estimated short-term holder net profitability at slightly more than 11% following the rally. Long-term holder profitability had risen from around breakeven to 18.5%, according to the platform, while “new-money” profitability increased from negative 1.4% to positive 12.7%.
The analysis placed the breakeven level for newer market participants near $73,000. That figure sat above the estimated cost bases of both short- and long-term holder cohorts, making the $68,000-to-$73,000 corridor a closely watched area for Bitcoin’s next pullback.
A decline beneath that range would push a greater portion of recent buyers into unrealized losses, based on CryptoQuant’s UTXO cohort calculations. Markets with a large concentration of holders near breakeven can become more volatile when prices fall below their entry levels, as some participants may choose to reduce exposure while others view the zone as a potential accumulation area.
ETF inflows accompanied the rebound
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $1.9 billion of net inflows over the week’s five trading days, according to Farside Investors. The total was described as the strongest weekly inflow figure since October 2025, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,200.
Thursday accounted for a substantial portion of the weekly activity as Bitcoin extended its recovery above $70,000. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded more than $500 million in net inflows that day, according to Farside’s fund-flow data.
The August inflows followed a difficult June, when US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $4.5 billion in net outflows, according to the supplied figures. Total inflows for August reached $2.38 billion, described as a year-to-date monthly record.
The reversal in fund flows coincided with Bitcoin’s price rebound, suggesting that demand through regulated US products had returned as the market regained key technical and onchain levels. ETF flows do not provide a complete picture of Bitcoin demand, but their scale can affect near-term market liquidity because issuers buy or sell Bitcoin to create and redeem fund shares.
Inflation and Jackson Hole could test the rally
Attention is now shifting to the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh was scheduled to give his first keynote address in the role. The gathering brings together central bankers and policymakers from more than 70 countries, placing remarks on inflation, interest rates and financial conditions under close scrutiny.
The next US Personal Consumption Expenditures index is also due this week. The PCE index is the inflation measure most closely followed by the Federal Reserve when setting monetary policy. Consensus expectations cited in the supplied material called for a 0.1% monthly increase and annual inflation of 3.6%, slightly below June’s 3.7% reading.
A softer-than-expected inflation result could reinforce expectations that borrowing costs will remain stable or move lower, a backdrop that has generally supported risk-sensitive assets. A stronger reading would likely revive concerns that policy may remain restrictive for longer, potentially putting pressure on Bitcoin after its rapid August gain.
The US Treasury also said last week that it would at least double the size of debt-buyback purchases to $4 billion per operation. The announcement came during a sharp move higher in Bitcoin that erased $3.1 billion in crypto short positions over two days, according to the market data in the supplied report.
That squeeze helped accelerate Bitcoin’s advance toward $80,000, but the coming week will show whether spot demand and ETF inflows can support the price without the same forced buying from short sellers. With Bitcoin trading only modestly below its recent peak, the $68,000-to-$73,000 cost-basis range offers a clearer measure of whether August’s recovery has built a durable base.
Wondering if Bitcoin above $77K is still a buy? Read our outlook in this Bitcoin price-level guide now.
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