Bitcoin climbed more than 6% in late-morning US trading on Wednesday, approaching $69,000 for its highest level since early June, as traders reacted to a Treasury plan to expand buybacks of longer-dated government bonds and a bullish Standard Chartered outlook. The bank’s analyst Geoff Kendrick said improving liquidity conditions could support a move toward $100,000 by the end of 2026.
The rally took Bitcoin above $65,500, a technical threshold Kendrick identified in a Standard Chartered note as a potential marker that the market’s cycle low may already be in place. His assessment links Bitcoin’s price recovery to changes in bond-market conditions, particularly a sharp fall in long-dated Treasury yields after the US Treasury’s announcement.
Treasury doubles certain long-bond buyback limits
The US Treasury said it will at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for selected longer-maturity government bonds. Operations involving 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal coupon securities will rise from a maximum of $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
The expanded program is scheduled to run from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. Treasury buybacks allow the government to repurchase outstanding debt in the secondary market, improving market functioning in securities that can become harder to trade during periods of volatility or uneven demand.
Long-dated Treasury yields fell sharply after the announcement, according to the market reaction described in the materials. Falling yields generally make fixed-income returns less attractive relative to assets carrying greater volatility and potential upside, including equities, commodities and cryptocurrencies.
The Treasury’s stated purpose is liquidity support rather than directing money into digital assets. Yet the move adds to a market environment Kendrick views as constructive for Bitcoin: easier trading conditions in government debt markets, lower long-term yields and greater appetite for assets that can benefit when financial conditions loosen.
Bitcoin clears Kendrick’s technical level
Kendrick’s $65,500 level has become a near-term reference point following Bitcoin’s Wednesday advance. In the Standard Chartered note, he said a sustained move above that price could suggest the asset had already passed through its cycle bottom.
Bitcoin has historically gone through periods of sharp expansion and contraction that many market participants describe through a four-year cycle framework, often associated with the rhythm of Bitcoin’s supply halvings. Kendrick said that framework also points toward an approaching or recently established bottom, though technical levels alone do not establish a durable trend.
A move above $65,500 followed by continued trading around or above that range would strengthen the case that the market has absorbed much of its earlier selling pressure. A quick reversal below it would leave the signal less conclusive, particularly if Treasury yields rebound or broader risk markets weaken.
Bitcoin’s rise to nearly $69,000 placed it within a few thousand dollars of a round-number level that could attract heightened trading activity. Such levels often become focal points for short-term positioning, with breakouts drawing momentum buyers while failures can trigger rapid profit-taking.
Lower yields can change the backdrop, not guarantee a rally
The connection between Treasury operations and Bitcoin is indirect. When the Treasury buys back longer-dated bonds, it reduces the volume of those securities available in the market and can support bond prices. Since bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, the result can be lower yields, especially when the purchases arrive alongside demand from other bond buyers.
That environment can reduce the return available from holding longer-term government debt. It may also ease stress in funding and bond markets, conditions that have previously aligned with stronger performance in higher-volatility assets. Kendrick’s note treats the Treasury action as one part of that financial backdrop rather than a standalone explanation for Bitcoin’s move.
The scale of the announced operations also sets limits on the immediate effect. Each eligible buyback can reach at least $4 billion, but the program is targeted at particular maturity ranges and runs on a schedule through early November. The program may influence long-end Treasury trading and market liquidity without producing a uniform shift across every financial market.
Bitcoin traders will therefore be watching whether the initial decline in long-dated yields persists through the Treasury’s scheduled purchases. Sustained yield declines could reinforce the easier-liquidity narrative behind Kendrick’s outlook. A rise in yields, particularly if driven by stronger inflation expectations or heavier government borrowing concerns, could complicate that view.
A $100,000 target depends on more than buybacks
Standard Chartered’s year-end 2026 target of $100,000 implies a substantial advance from Bitcoin’s level near $69,000 on Wednesday. Reaching it would require the liquidity trend identified by Kendrick to endure and would likely depend on continued demand across spot markets and other channels.
The supplied market data indicates that spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds had attracted $56.9 billion since early 2024 and that Bitcoin represented roughly 63% of the total digital-asset market by mid-2026. Those figures point to Bitcoin’s dominant role during the latest phase of institutionalized market access, though the Treasury buyback program itself does not determine fund flows.
Stablecoins, described in the supplied data as exceeding $300 billion in market value, also represent a large pool of on-chain dollar liquidity. Their presence can make it easier for traders to move between dollar-linked tokens and cryptocurrencies, but it does not ensure that capital will be deployed into Bitcoin during a bond-market shift.
For now, the most immediate development is Bitcoin’s recovery above Kendrick’s $65,500 threshold alongside lower long-dated Treasury yields. The next test will be whether the market can hold that level as the Treasury begins the expanded buyback operations in September and bond-market conditions develop through early November.
For deeper insights on liquidity, cycles, and BTC’s $100k path, explore our outlook in this Bitcoin forecast.
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