Bitcoin entered the third week of September below a closely watched long-term support level as a U.S. Senate vote on digital-asset legislation and an expected Federal Reserve rate increase placed policy risk at the center of the market’s near-term outlook.
BTC ended the previous week near $76,800, below its 50-week exponential moving average of about $77,380. The cryptocurrency had also failed to retain $78,300 into the weekly close, leaving the market below a level that traders often use to judge whether a broader advance remains intact.
The immediate calendar is crowded. The Senate is scheduled to hold a cloture vote at 2:15 p.m. Tuesday on advancing the CLARITY Act, while the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday. A 25-basis-point increase would take the U.S. benchmark rate to a 3.75%–4% range, extending tighter financial conditions during a period of renewed energy-price pressure.
Senate vote tests prospects for the CLARITY Act
Tuesday’s Senate action is procedural rather than a final vote on the CLARITY Act itself. Sixty votes are required to invoke cloture and move the measure forward, making bipartisan backing necessary in a chamber where neither party holds that threshold alone.
Senate Republicans released an updated 635-page proposal on Monday amid negotiations over a framework for U.S. digital-asset markets. The legislation would seek to define regulatory responsibilities and establish rules for parts of the cryptocurrency sector that have spent years operating under overlapping claims from federal agencies.
The vote has become a short-term market focus because a successful cloture motion would preserve momentum for a legislative process that has repeatedly stalled in Washington. A failed vote would not necessarily end efforts to pass cryptocurrency-market rules, but it could delay negotiations and reduce expectations for a near-term breakthrough.
Polymarket pricing placed the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 34% at the time cited, below levels seen in early August. Prediction-market odds are not a legislative forecast, but the decline reflects a more cautious assessment of the bill’s path through the Senate and any subsequent steps required for enactment.
Fed decision arrives as oil returns above $100
The Federal Reserve decision follows a period in which inflation concerns have resurfaced alongside higher oil prices. Oil moved back above $100 a barrel as risks surrounding Middle Eastern supply routes increased.
The Kobeissi Letter estimated that as much as 30 million barrels per day of supply could face transit disruptions involving the Strait of Hormuz or Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. It also pointed to risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Global oil consumption is roughly 100 million barrels per day, so disruptions to even part of those routes could feed quickly into fuel prices and inflation expectations.
For Bitcoin and other liquid risk assets, the issue is less the oil price alone than the potential response from monetary policy. Higher energy costs can complicate the Fed’s effort to bring inflation under control, limiting its room to ease financial conditions. A rate increase would also raise borrowing costs across the economy and keep pressure on leveraged positions in markets that depend heavily on derivatives.
The policy backdrop has encouraged caution in Bitcoin futures. Santiment reported that Bitcoin-denominated open interest fell 13.5% in the week through Sept. 11, declining from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s spot price fell 5%.
That reduction points to a meaningful unwind in futures exposure rather than a price decline driven solely by aggressive new short positions. Santiment described open interest as roughly 20% below levels seen before the mid-August rally, suggesting that traders have already reduced some leverage ahead of the Senate and Fed events.
Funding data shows a market less defensive than in spring
CryptoQuant’s funding-rate data showed aggregate funding rates gradually rising from the end of May after a negative-rate period that began in early March. Funding rates are periodic payments between traders holding long and short perpetual futures contracts; positive rates generally indicate that long-position holders are paying shorts.
The pattern does not by itself signal an imminent decline, but it shows that derivatives traders have moved away from the defensive positioning seen earlier in the year. CryptoQuant noted that negative cumulative 30-day funding rates have historically appeared during late stages of Bitcoin bear markets and during major corrections within bull cycles.
Its dataset also referenced a previous 52% drawdown during the earlier negative-funding stretch. The comparison offers context for how sharply sentiment can change when leveraged demand fades, though past funding patterns do not establish a fixed price target or timing for the current market.
Chart focus shifts toward the 21-week average
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s loss of the 50-week EMA has shifted attention to lower support levels. Rekt Capital identified the 21-week EMA near $72,270 as the next major level to watch.
A decline toward that area would represent a further test of the market’s medium-term trend, while a recovery above the 50-week EMA would ease immediate technical pressure. Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index, or RSI, has continued to form higher lows through 2026, maintaining a bullish divergence even as price has weakened. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price moves and is commonly used to assess momentum.
That divergence gives technical traders a counterweight to the bearish weekly close, but confirmation would require price to stabilize rather than merely avoid a deeper sell-off. With leverage already reduced and two major policy events scheduled within days, Bitcoin’s response around the $77,380 and $72,270 levels is likely to provide a clearer read on whether the current retreat is a contained correction or the start of a more sustained breakdown.
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