Bitcoin moved above its 200-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since November 2025, reaching nearly $73,000 after a sharp two-day rally. TradingView data showed the cryptocurrency had gained more than 13% since Wednesday, when the US Treasury said it would expand buybacks of longer-dated government bonds beginning Sept. 9.
The recovery put Bitcoin back above a technical level widely watched as a measure of its longer-term trend. Its previous move above the 200-day average came in November 2025, roughly a month after Bitcoin set an all-time high above $126,000, according to the price history cited by Barchart.
Bitcoin’s breakout coincided with a change in Treasury market operations that initially pushed longer-term yields lower. The timing has encouraged traders to interpret the Treasury announcement as a supportive macro development for risk assets, though the buybacks are designed to improve trading conditions in the government-bond market rather than to function as a monetary stimulus program.
Treasury raises long-bond buyback cap
The Treasury said it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated securities, raising the ceiling from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The revised program is scheduled to start on Sept. 9.
Treasury buybacks allow the department to repurchase older, less actively traded bonds from market participants. The stated purpose is to support liquidity, particularly in parts of the market where trading can become less efficient as securities age. In practice, the Treasury issues new debt and manages its outstanding stock through a range of operations, including buybacks.
The announcement arrived after pressure had built in the long end of the Treasury market. Lower long-term yields can improve appetite for assets perceived as carrying more risk, including technology shares and cryptocurrencies, because the returns available on government securities become relatively less attractive.
That relationship is not automatic. Treasury buybacks do not directly create new money in the way central-bank asset purchases can, and they do not guarantee a lasting decline in yields. Their effect depends on the scale of operations, broader Treasury issuance, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy and demand from large bond buyers.
Yet Bitcoin’s rapid response shows how closely the market is tracking signals from US fixed income. As an asset that has increasingly traded alongside broader liquidity expectations, Bitcoin can react quickly when traders see a potential easing of financial conditions.
The 200-day average returns to focus
Bitcoin’s move above the 200-day moving average carries technical weight because the indicator smooths roughly nine months of daily price action. When prices remain below that level, chart-focused traders often regard it as evidence that the broader market remains under pressure. A sustained recovery above it can draw attention from participants who use trend-following strategies.
The indicator alone does not establish that a previous downtrend has ended. Bitcoin has crossed major moving averages during temporary rallies before reversing, especially when macroeconomic conditions or leverage in derivatives markets shift quickly. The more useful test will be whether the price can hold above the average through periods of weaker momentum and renewed volatility.
The level also comes after a difficult stretch for Bitcoin following its record high above $126,000 in 2025. A rebound toward $73,000 recovers part of that decline but leaves the asset far below its prior peak. That gap limits the case for treating the latest technical move as a full return to the conditions that prevailed at the top of the market.
Price action around the moving average may nevertheless affect positioning. Traders who had treated the level as resistance may reassess short positions, while those seeking confirmation of a trend reversal will look for sustained closing prices above it rather than a brief intraday break.
A $100,000 call rests on broader conditions
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said the Treasury’s move could support a Bitcoin advance toward $100,000 by year-end. Such a target would require Bitcoin to rise by about 37% from the nearly $73,000 level cited by TradingView.
The forecast depends on more than the Treasury buyback program. Bitcoin’s path will also be shaped by long-term borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook, the strength of the US dollar, demand through regulated investment products and conditions in cryptocurrency derivatives markets.
The Treasury operation may reduce one source of stress in longer-dated bonds, but it does not settle the forces that have driven those yields higher. Inflation data, fiscal borrowing needs and changes in the term premium—the additional return traders demand for holding long-term debt—could all alter the market response before the expanded buybacks begin.
For Bitcoin, the immediate development is a return above a closely watched long-term price gauge during a period of improving sentiment around US bond-market liquidity. Whether that recovery develops into a durable advance will depend on whether lower yields persist and whether Bitcoin can retain the technical ground it regained near $73,000.
BTC reclaiming $73K? Learn key signals and timing in When is the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
