Bitcoin remained below $64,000 on Thursday, failing to extend a recovery despite U.S. inflation reports that broadly supported the case for easier monetary policy. The muted reaction has left the market confined to a narrow range around key on-chain cost-basis levels, with Glassnode identifying $68,700 as major resistance and $58,500 as the lower support area.
July’s Consumer Price Index showed core inflation easing by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%, while headline inflation was unchanged. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that its Producer Price Index for final demand was flat in July: services prices rose 0.2% while goods prices fell 0.7%. Final-demand prices were up 4.7% over the 12 months through July.
U.S. labor data added a slightly softer signal. Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000 in the week ended Aug. 8, above economists’ expectations for 202,000 claims. Yet neither the inflation data nor the labor reading generated sustained buying in bitcoin, which continued trading within the $60,000 to $65,000 corridor.
Bitcoin remains trapped between cost-basis levels
Glassnode said bitcoin was trading just above its median realized price of roughly $63,000 and below the short-term holder cost basis near $68,700. The median realized price represents the midpoint of bitcoin’s aggregate on-chain cost basis, while the short-term holder metric tracks the average acquisition price for coins held by newer market participants.
That positioning leaves a large group of more recent buyers underwater or near break-even as bitcoin trades below $68,700. In previous periods, such cost-basis levels have often become areas where holders sell into recoveries, creating resistance as the market approaches them.
Bitcoin has spent nearly three months inside this band, Glassnode said, while the two levels have gradually converged and price volatility has declined. The pattern suggests the market has moved from the large directional swings seen earlier in the cycle toward a period of compressed trading, where a smaller amount of new demand or selling pressure can have an outsized effect on price.
The lack of a strong response to favorable inflation data is part of that picture. Softer inflation normally supports risk assets by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates or maintain a less restrictive policy stance. Bitcoin’s inability to rally through $64,000 after the releases indicates that macro relief alone has not been enough to overcome weak spot-market demand.
Spot trading activity reaches multi-year lows
Glassnode said spot trading volume had fallen to its lowest level since the firm’s data series began in early 2019. Even when activity associated with Binance was excluded, volume remained near levels last seen during the 2023 bear market, according to the report.
The firm also said fewer bitcoins were changing hands than at any point in seven years. Low turnover can reflect a market where long-term holders are unwilling to sell at prevailing prices, but it can also show that new buyers are not entering aggressively enough to absorb available supply.
Several of Glassnode’s on-chain measures point to a market close to balance rather than one dominated by either panic selling or renewed accumulation. Supply held in profit was near areas that have previously aligned with bear-market floors, while the firm’s seller exhaustion constant had fallen to a cycle low. That combination suggests many weaker sellers may already have exited, though it does not by itself establish that bitcoin has formed a durable price bottom.
The adjusted spent output profit ratio, or aSOPR, has added another obstacle on rebounds. The metric compares the sale price of spent coins with their purchase price. Glassnode said its seven-day average has returned to break-even nine times since bitcoin’s October 2025 peak, with sellers using the level to exit positions rather than allowing the market to build momentum above it.
That behavior helps explain why $68,700 has become a more consequential threshold than the latest $64,000 test. A move toward that level would bring the market back to the average cost basis of short-term holders, where break-even selling has repeatedly capped prior recoveries.
ETF demand has improved, but remains uneven
Flows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs turned positive at the end of July for the first time in months, Glassnode said, though the firm described the pace as weaker than in earlier accumulation periods. The funds recorded $61 million of net outflows on Wednesday, with daily trading volume at $1.19 billion, far below the $14.7 billion peak reached in February.
Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21shares, said U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had attracted more than $850 million in net inflows since the start of the third quarter. He argued that an in-line CPI result combined with a benign producer-price reading could help bitcoin clear $66,000, though the market has yet to demonstrate enough buying pressure to sustain a break above its current range.
Glassnode’s exchange-flow analysis provides a counterweight to the ETF data. The firm said coins had moved onto exchanges on most days this year, a pattern that can increase the supply immediately available for sale. The flow data does not identify each holder’s intent, but persistent exchange deposits can limit upside when demand is already thin.
Macro signals and derivatives positioning diverge
Martin Gaspar, research analyst at FalconX, cited increased call-option activity and less aggressive put buying as signs of a somewhat more constructive derivatives backdrop. He also pointed to long-term holder accumulation and improving ETF flows during the third quarter.
Gaspar said a rally in gold and rising Treasury yields remained the main macro constraints. Rising yields can reduce the appeal of assets that do not generate income, while gold’s strength may draw demand from traders seeking a traditional hedge against economic or geopolitical uncertainty.
Market attention has also remained on developments around the Strait of Hormuz, where Middle East tensions have added another variable to an already cautious risk environment. Bitcoin’s narrow trading range has persisted as traders weigh those risks against the prospect of softer U.S. monetary conditions.
The immediate technical picture remains straightforward: bitcoin has held above the $60,000 area identified by Simon-Peter Massabni, market analyst at XS.com, while repeated attempts to reclaim the mid-$64,000 range have lacked follow-through. A sustained advance toward $68,700 would test whether recent buyers are prepared to hold through break-even levels. A decline toward $58,500 would place the market near Glassnode’s next major support zone and test whether the apparent seller exhaustion is sufficient to absorb renewed supply.
Want deeper insight into BTC’s range and inflation impact? Read how Fed rate cuts influence Bitcoin volatility next.
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