Bitcoin entered Friday’s Wall Street session below $63,000 while major US equity indexes remained near record highs, extending a divergence that has put the cryptocurrency’s $61,000 liquidity zone in focus. TradingView data showed BTC/USD down 1.3% on the day at $62,570, near its lowest level of the month, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted modest gains.
The S&P 500 rose 0.11% and the Nasdaq added 0.14% during the session, indicating that the softer inflation backdrop supporting risk assets had yet to translate into renewed Bitcoin buying. The split leaves Bitcoin trading below a series of closely watched technical levels while equities sit roughly 1% below their record peak.
Market analyst Rekt Capital said Bitcoin needed to secure a weekly close above $63,220 on Sunday to reduce the risk of a deeper pullback. The analyst also identified $63,000 as a support area that had weakened during August and pointed to the 50-month exponential moving average, near $65,827, as a major resistance level above the market.
That leaves Bitcoin in a narrow and difficult range. A recovery above $63,220 would put the focus back on the $65,827 moving average, while another failure to hold current levels could expose prices to the dense area of orders and derivatives positioning around $61,000.
Long positioning raises pressure near $61,000
Derivatives markets have added to the downside sensitivity. Glassnode said traders had taken on “substantial risk” in recent positioning, with the exposure predominantly tilted toward long positions. The blockchain analytics firm added that it was not seeing corresponding demand capable of supporting that leverage.
Open interest—the value of unsettled futures contracts—rose sharply as Bitcoin moved toward the $61,000 area, according to the market data cited in the report. Rising open interest does not automatically predict a price decline, but it can amplify market moves when a large share of positions is aligned in the same direction.
In this case, a further decline could trigger liquidations among traders who borrowed funds to maintain bullish positions. Liquidations force exchanges’ trading systems to close positions that no longer meet margin requirements, potentially adding sell orders during a fast fall. The effect can turn a relatively limited move into a sharper intraday drop, particularly when spot buying is thin.
The absence of a clear Bitcoin response to stronger equities also complicates the bullish case. Recent US inflation readings have reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates further, a development that has generally supported assets perceived as more sensitive to liquidity conditions. Yet Bitcoin remained under pressure while stock benchmarks advanced.
That contrast suggests that Bitcoin’s immediate trading conditions are being driven more by its internal market structure—resistance overhead, fragile support and leveraged futures positioning—than by the broader macroeconomic backdrop.
Inflation release becomes the next macro test
Attention is turning to the Aug. 26 release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The Bureau of Economic Analysis data cited in the report indicated that July’s PCE reading marked the first monthly decline since 2020.
A softer PCE result would reinforce the recent easing in US inflation indicators and could strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs over time. That would improve the wider liquidity environment that often supports higher-risk assets, though a favorable macro reading would not by itself resolve Bitcoin’s near-term technical resistance or derivatives imbalance.
The previous Producer Price Index reading for July was flat, according to the report, offering another sign that price pressures may be easing. Markets will be watching whether the PCE figures confirm that pattern, especially after the inflation data helped US stocks maintain their advance.
Bitcoin’s response may depend as much on how traders are positioned as on the inflation number itself. A heavily long market can react poorly even to broadly supportive economic news if the price fails to clear resistance and traders begin cutting risk. Conversely, a decisive move above the closely watched weekly threshold could force some bearish positions to unwind and relieve pressure from the current range.
Technical levels define the near-term range
For now, $63,000 has shifted from a level Bitcoin traders hoped would provide a durable base into a contested area below resistance. The weekly-close level at $63,220 gives the market a near-term marker, while the 50-month exponential moving average at $65,827 remains the larger barrier for any sustained rebound.
Below the market, the concentration of liquidity around $61,000 makes that zone especially important. A move toward it would test whether spot-market buyers emerge as leveraged long exposure is reduced, or whether forced selling pushes Bitcoin briefly through the level.
The coming session and Sunday’s weekly close will determine whether Bitcoin can reclaim lost ground before the PCE release. Until then, the market is caught between a more favorable inflation narrative and a derivatives setup that leaves little room for another failed attempt at $63,000.
Want to better navigate BTC’s support and resistance? Learn key price levels in our guide, read now.
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