Bitcoin slipped roughly 0.3% on Wednesday after failing to sustain a move above $81,687, with the cryptocurrency reversing around the Wall Street open as traders waited for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. BTC/USD later fell as low as $80,297 on Bitstamp, leaving the market below a closely watched 50-day simple moving average near $81,831.
The price action placed Bitcoin between a near-term technical ceiling and increasingly cautious macro positioning. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee leaving rates unchanged at 90.6%, with markets pricing the federal funds rate to remain within its 3.75% to 4% range after the meeting.
A hold was widely anticipated, leaving Warsh’s language on inflation, growth and the conditions for future policy moves as the session’s main potential catalyst. The December meeting was still associated with expectations for a 0.25-percentage-point rate increase, according to the market pricing cited by CME Group.
Bitcoin stalls below the 50-day average
Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim the 50-day SMA kept attention on $81,831 as immediate resistance. The indicator had capped several intraday recovery attempts, suggesting that buyers had not yet absorbed supply placed near the recent highs.
A market commentator identified as Alan said that a four-hour close below $80,565 could lower the likelihood of another near-term challenge of the 50-day average. Bitcoin’s dip toward $80,297 brought that level into focus, although the cryptocurrency remained above the round-number $80,000 threshold during the reported move.
The 50-day moving average is widely used to gauge medium-term momentum by smoothing out daily price fluctuations. Trading below it does not determine Bitcoin’s next direction on its own, but repeated rejection at the level can encourage short-term traders to treat rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than chase higher prices.
That dynamic was visible in the timing of Wednesday’s reversal. Bitcoin initially moved higher before US equities opened, then lost ground as Wall Street began trading with stock indexes largely flat. With the Fed decision pending, neither equity nor cryptocurrency markets showed much appetite for a decisive directional move.
Lower bid interest emerges beneath $80,000
Order-book data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode indicated that visible buy orders had shifted lower if Bitcoin extends its decline. The firm reported about $3.4 million in bids at $80,000, while cumulative bids between $78,000 and $79,000 stood near $42 million.
Glassnode said the $78,000-$79,000 range had contained around $24 million in bids in mid-October. The increase suggests that some participants were prepared to buy at a deeper discount rather than provide substantial support immediately below the current market price.
Order-book data reflects limit orders that can be amended, cancelled or filled quickly, so it cannot guarantee that a price level will hold in a fast sell-off. It does provide a snapshot of where demand is concentrated. In this case, the distribution leaves a relatively thin visible buffer between $80,000 and the upper-$79,000 area.
A move into that lower range would test whether the larger cluster of bids represents durable demand or simply short-term positioning around a technical level. The $75,000 area was also cited in the supplied market analysis as a lower support zone, though Bitcoin would need to break through the nearer order-book concentrations first.
Fed message could reshape December expectations
The FOMC decision arrives with attention already turning to its December meeting. Alan said Warsh’s comments could alter market expectations for that gathering, which falls after US midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 3.
Rate expectations matter for Bitcoin because shifts in anticipated borrowing costs can affect appetite for risk-sensitive assets, particularly technology shares and high-growth sectors. A more restrictive outlook can raise pressure on asset valuations, while signs that policy may become less restrictive can support risk-taking. The immediate reaction often depends less on the rate decision itself than on whether the Fed’s language differs from what markets had priced in.
Wednesday’s market setup offered limited room for surprise from the rate announcement, given the 90.6% probability of no change shown by FedWatch. Warsh’s assessment of inflation risks and the path beyond the current meeting therefore carried greater potential to move both equities and Bitcoin.
Technology markets remain part of the backdrop
The session also coincided with closely watched technology-company earnings, which were expected to shape sentiment around the artificial intelligence sector. A commentator identified as Van Zyl said market attention remained fixed on whether earnings would justify elevated expectations around AI-related companies.
Global equity performance was mixed. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index gained 6.6% and recorded its strongest daily advance since July, while US technology shares did not produce a comparable move at the open. The divergence underlined how regional stock rallies do not necessarily translate into a broad risk-on signal for Bitcoin.
Van Zyl also referred to an unnamed index that had rebounded almost 10% over two days but remained 34% below its June 22 record of 9,115. The index had closed 40% below that peak on Monday, according to the commentary. Such swings point to a market environment where sharp rebounds can coexist with unresolved concerns over valuations and growth.
The supplied material also cited a Winterflood 90-day study that found a 0.46 correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100. That is a meaningful but imperfect relationship: it implies the assets often move in the same direction, without suggesting that technology stocks dictate every Bitcoin move. On Wednesday, the lack of a strong advance in US tech shares coincided with Bitcoin’s failure to clear its 50-day average.
Bitcoin’s next immediate tests are therefore clear. A recovery above $81,831 would put the rejected 50-day SMA back in play as support, while a sustained loss of $80,000 would shift attention toward the heavier bid interest Glassnode identified between $78,000 and $79,000.
Wondering how Fed rate cuts reshape BTC volatility? Explore insights in this detailed analysis of macro-driven Bitcoin moves.
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