Bitcoin’s realized selling pressure has eased sharply after its August rally, with the sell-side risk ratio falling to 7 basis points in September from 16 in late August, according to the supplied on-chain data. The reading places realized profit and loss activity among the lowest levels recorded over the past year, even as bitcoin retained much of the roughly 25% advance registered during August.
The slowdown suggests that the rally did not trigger the same level of profit-taking seen at earlier 2025 peaks. Long-term holders reduced their share of realized profits, while recent buyers accounted for more of the coins moving on-chain. That pattern points to a market where older supply has become less active, though it does not by itself establish a permanent price floor.
Bitcoin was recently trading near $78,800, below the estimated aggregate breakeven level of US spot bitcoin ETF holders at about $86,000. The gap leaves a substantial group of ETF buyers facing unrealized losses, creating a technical and psychological level that could shape selling and buying behavior if bitcoin approaches it again.
Realized activity retreats after August spike
The sell-side risk ratio measures realized profits and losses relative to bitcoin’s realized market capitalization. Realized capitalization values coins according to the price at which they last moved on-chain, rather than the current market price. Dividing realized gains and losses by that measure helps show whether holders are actively taking profits or losses at a scale large enough to affect the broader supply base.
At 16 basis points in late August, the ratio coincided with bitcoin trading above $80,000 at multi-month highs. By September, it had declined to 7 basis points, less than half the late-August reading.
The latest level also sits below readings at two earlier market highs cited in the data. The ratio reached 35 basis points at the July 2025 peak and 23 basis points at the October 2025 high. Those periods involved a larger volume of coins being sold at a realized gain or loss relative to the network’s realized value.
A low sell-side risk ratio generally reflects limited on-chain distribution rather than an automatic bullish signal. Holders may be reluctant to sell after a price decline, may be waiting for higher prices, or may simply be moving fewer coins through transactions that create realized gains and losses. Its value lies in showing that the August advance was followed by a cooling of realized activity rather than a sustained wave of supply hitting the market.
Long-term holders have slowed their profit-taking
Long-term holders, defined in the supplied dataset as entities with unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs, held for at least six months, played a smaller role in September’s realized profits.
Their share of realized profit fell to 47% from 88% at the August peak. A separate rise in realized profit on September 3 was less than half the size of the August spike, according to the cohort data.
That shift matters because long-term holder distribution often adds meaningful supply during strong rallies. These holders tend to own coins accumulated at lower prices and can realize substantial gains when bitcoin reaches new trading ranges. Their reduced contribution after August indicates that the profit-taking associated with the initial move above $80,000 has moderated.
The cohort breakdown instead attributed more September selling to newer buyers. Such selling can be less structurally consequential than large-scale long-term holder distribution, but it may also show that recent entrants remain more sensitive to short-term price moves. Bitcoin’s decline from above $80,000 to roughly $78,800 illustrates that lower realized selling does not eliminate market volatility.
SOPR remains above breakeven
The spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, has remained above 1 for its longest stretch of 2026, according to the data. SOPR compares the price at which spent coins were last acquired with the price at which they were later sold. A reading above 1 means coins moving on-chain are, in aggregate, being spent at a profit; 1 represents breakeven.
An extended period above 1 indicates that market participants selling coins have generally remained profitable despite bitcoin’s retreat from the August highs. In previous market cycles, sustained readings above breakeven have often reflected resilient holder profitability, while a decisive move below 1 can signal that sellers are beginning to realize aggregate losses.
The current setup is less straightforward because bitcoin remains below the estimated $86,000 aggregate breakeven price for US spot bitcoin ETF holders. The supplied data says bitcoin has closed below that level for 229 sessions, leaving the group with about $3.9 billion in paper losses at current prices.
That estimate treats ETF holders as a group rather than identifying the cost basis of each fund or individual holder. Even so, it places $86,000 as a potentially crowded recovery level. A return toward it could prompt some holders to exit near breakeven, while a sustained move above it could reduce an overhang of unrealized losses.
A quieter supply picture meets an unresolved price range
The supplied market data also showed net spot selling volume at negative $29.6 million and reported $681 million in new flows into US spot bitcoin funds. Those figures point in different directions: spot-market activity has been subdued, while regulated fund products have continued to attract capital.
Neither measure settles bitcoin’s next move. ETF flows can change quickly, and on-chain realized-profit metrics do not capture every source of liquidity, including derivatives positioning, over-the-counter transactions, and coins held on centralized platforms.
For now, the on-chain evidence describes a market with less realized distribution than during August’s surge. Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim and hold the $86,000 area would test whether that reduced selling activity can support a renewed advance or whether the level becomes an exit point for holders seeking to recover losses.
For deeper context on current BTC dynamics above $70K, explore this Bitcoin market outlook guide today.
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