Bitcoin began the third week of October near $82,000 after closing the previous week below a closely watched support area, leaving the market exposed to another test of $80,000 if the rebound in global equities loses momentum. The move comes as traders weigh a sharp technology-led stock retreat, stubborn US inflation and a busy week of corporate earnings led by Tesla and Meta.
The cryptocurrency ended the week at about $82,000, beneath a support range between $82,500 and $82,800 that analyst Rekt Capital had identified. In a market update, Rekt Capital said the weekly close below that zone raised the prospect of Bitcoin revisiting the $80,000 area in the weeks ahead.
Bitcoin had traded below $58,000 as recently as July 1 before recovering through the summer. That recovery now faces a technical barrier near $87,000, around September’s local high. Rekt Capital identified the 2026 yearly opening price and the 20-month simple moving average as overlapping resistance levels in that area, creating a narrow but important range between roughly $80,000 and $87,000.
Equities attempt to steady after technology sell-off
Asian and US equity futures opened firmer on Monday after the previous week’s sharp decline. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index rose nearly 1.8%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%, according to the market figures cited in the source material.
The rebound followed a difficult stretch for Korean technology shares. The KOSPI fell 2.8% on Oct. 12 before touching a weekly low of 5,455 on Thursday, which briefly brought its losses for the week to 17%. Selling then spread through other Asian markets before reaching US stocks, where the S&P 500 finished Friday down 2% for the week.
Concerns over the cost of artificial intelligence infrastructure were central to the technology retreat. Markets have increasingly focused on whether large spending commitments for data centers, chips and power capacity can translate into durable revenue and cash flow. Semiconductor competition from China also added pressure to Korean manufacturers, according to the source material.
Warnings on social media about a potential “Black Monday” circulated over the weekend, coinciding with the 39th anniversary of the 1987 stock-market crash. Monday’s early gains eased those immediate fears, but the episode showed how quickly a concentrated sell-off in technology shares can affect sentiment across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Crypto has frequently traded alongside technology stocks during periods when interest-rate expectations and appetite for higher-risk assets drive market positioning. A sustained recovery in equities would remove one source of pressure from Bitcoin, while another round of selling in highly valued technology names could keep the token below its nearby resistance levels.
Earnings will test AI spending expectations
Attention is shifting toward corporate results as the US economic calendar becomes lighter. About 15% of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report third-quarter earnings this week, according to the source material, with Tesla and Meta due to release results on Wednesday.
Their reports will be watched closely for evidence that AI spending is producing commercial returns rather than simply lifting capital expenditures. Technology companies are preparing to spend roughly $760 billion this year on data-center construction, while global AI spending could reach $2.7 trillion by the end of 2026, according to the research figures cited in the source material.
Those estimates frame the market’s concern: companies building AI capacity must show that rising infrastructure costs are matched by revenue growth, pricing power or lower operating costs elsewhere. Earnings calls could therefore influence more than individual share prices. They may help determine whether traders see the recent tech decline as a temporary repricing or the beginning of a deeper reassessment of AI-related valuations.
Inflation complicates the Federal Reserve outlook
US inflation data remains another constraint on risk markets. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index rose 1.7% in September from the previous month, its largest monthly increase since March 2022. The agency said half of the increase in final-demand goods prices came from gasoline, which rose 20.3%.
The Consumer Price Index also exceeded forecasts by 0.1 percentage point and rose 3.7% year on year, according to the source material. Fuel accounted for more than half of the September CPI increase, following earlier gains in oil prices linked to the Middle East crisis.
Energy-driven inflation can be particularly awkward for central bankers because it reduces household purchasing power while limiting the scope for easier monetary policy. Higher fuel prices do not necessarily point to persistent underlying inflation, but they can keep headline readings elevated long enough to make policymakers cautious about rate cuts.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep rates in the 3.75% to 4.00% range at its Oct. 28 meeting, according to the figures in the source material. For December, the tool showed an 11% chance of another pause, a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point increase and a 13% probability of a 50-basis-point increase.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh offered no guidance on future decisions during a discussion last week with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. “I don’t prejudge meetings,” Warsh said. “I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year.”
US spot-market demand weakens
Bitcoin’s technical position has also been accompanied by weaker demand signals on Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency trading venue. CryptoQuant reported that its Coinbase Premium Index fell to minus 0.141 on Oct. 18, the lowest reading since June 30.
The index compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase with prices on other major venues. A negative reading can indicate comparatively weaker US-based buying interest or greater selling pressure on Coinbase. CryptoQuant said a persistently negative premium could leave demand insufficient to absorb additional selling.
That reading does not determine Bitcoin’s next move on its own, especially during a week shaped by equity earnings and Federal Reserve expectations. It does suggest that a push back toward $87,000 would need stronger spot demand than the market showed late last week. Until then, Bitcoin remains caught between a weakened $82,500 support level and a cluster of resistance near September’s high.
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