Bitcoin began the final week of October struggling to hold $80,000 as a crowded US economic calendar put pressure on risk assets and left traders focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, technology-sector earnings and inflation data due later in the week.
The cryptocurrency briefly fell to $79,145 over the weekend, triggering nearly $150 million in long-position liquidations within two hours, according to CoinGlass. It recovered toward $80,000 on Monday, but order-book data tracked by CoinGlass showed a concentrated cluster of sell orders near $81,000, leaving little room for an easy rebound before several market-moving events.
If Bitcoin ends the month near current levels, it would record an October decline of roughly 4%. That would extend a difficult break from the asset’s usual seasonal pattern: CoinGlass data dating to 2010 puts Bitcoin’s average October gain at 26.1%.
Fed decision takes center stage
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday. CME FedWatch showed market pricing above 90% for no change ahead of the decision, while expectations for December leaned toward a quarter-point rate increase.
Markets will also parse comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the post-meeting press conference. Robin Brooks, an economist and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said markets had assigned a 12% probability to a rate increase at the October meeting.
Bitcoin’s ability to retain $80,000 could partly depend on whether Warsh’s remarks reinforce expectations that borrowing costs will remain restrictive into December. Higher rates can reduce appetite for volatile assets by raising returns available from cash and government debt, while also tightening financial conditions for growth-focused equities that frequently trade alongside Bitcoin.
Energy markets add another complication to the inflation picture. Brent crude rose to $117 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since March 19, before retreating to about $110 on Monday. Brooks said a move toward $125 per barrel would not alone force the Federal Reserve to alter its projected rate path, though sustained oil-price strength could complicate the outlook for consumer prices.
Inflation, GDP and big tech earnings follow
Thursday’s personal consumption expenditures report will provide the next major reading on US inflation. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and its previous annual reading was 3.4%. Analysts linked part of the decline in that release to changes in the way components of the index were calculated.
The same day is set to bring US third-quarter GDP figures, giving markets a fresh view of economic growth. A weaker-than-expected reading could revive concerns that high rates and elevated energy costs are slowing the economy more sharply than policymakers anticipate. A stronger figure, meanwhile, could support the case for rates to remain higher for longer.
Equity markets entered the week on a softer footing. The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at 25,955, its lowest daily close since Aug. 3, as traders prepared for quarterly results from some of the market’s largest technology companies.
Microsoft and Alphabet are scheduled to report after the market closes on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Intel on Thursday. Roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies are due to release quarterly earnings during the week. Their results and forecasts will help determine whether the recent weakness in technology stocks becomes a broader correction or remains limited to a pre-earnings pullback.
Asian equities reflected similar caution. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite fell 1.5% on Monday to close at 5,469, after reaching 5,308 on Friday, a level last seen in late July.
Bitcoin faces a narrow trading range
Bitcoin’s weekend selloff exposed a thin and highly contested range around $80,000. CoinGlass order-book data showed about $73 million in bids near $79,300, a level close to Saturday’s low. Those bids may offer short-term support, but the nearby sell interest around $81,000 has capped attempts to regain higher ground.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, described Bitcoin’s late-September and early-October push toward $87,000 as a “fakeout” in a Monday post. That area remains technically important. The 2026 yearly open sits at $87,490, while the 20-month moving average is near $87,165, creating a cluster of levels that Bitcoin would need to reclaim to reverse the recent downward momentum.
The market’s near-term structure therefore leaves Bitcoin caught between a well-tested support area below $80,000 and a series of resistance levels extending from $81,000 to roughly $87,500. A close below the weekend floor would put the $79,300 bid zone under greater pressure, while a sustained move above the immediate sell wall would shift attention toward the yearly open and long-term moving average.
Seasonal pattern offers limited comfort
Bitcoin’s October performance has also challenged a popular seasonal assumption among crypto traders. Historical averages can describe past tendencies, but they have provided little protection during a month dominated by changing rate expectations, higher oil prices and weaker technology shares.
CoinGlass records show Bitcoin declined 3.9% in October 2025 before falling another 17.5% in November, despite its historical sample showing an average November return of 35%. The comparison underlines how seasonal records can be overwhelmed by macroeconomic conditions and market positioning.
With the Fed decision, PCE inflation data, GDP figures and heavyweight earnings arriving within two days, the defense of $80,000 has become a test of whether Bitcoin can absorb another risk-off wave without reopening the path toward the weekend low.
Wondering if rate cuts and inflation shifts favor BTC? Dive deeper into macro impacts in this detailed guide.
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