Bitcoin is facing a dense resistance zone near $87,700, where holders who acquired coins six to 12 months ago have reached their aggregate breakeven level, according to blockchain analytics platform Glassnode. The price area also overlaps with Bitcoin’s 2026 opening level and a long-term moving average, creating a cluster of reference points that has attracted selling during recent rallies.
Glassnode places the aggregate cost basis for the six-to-12-month holder cohort at $87,700. A cost basis measures the average purchase price for coins held by a group of wallets, making it a closely watched marker when previously underwater holders regain the opportunity to exit without a loss.
Bitcoin’s 2026 opening price, $87,490, and its 20-month simple moving average, near $87,165, sit just below that cost-basis estimate. The convergence places several forms of potential resistance within a relatively narrow band above $87,000, rather than leaving the market to contend with a single technical threshold.
Holders are meeting price at breakeven
The six-to-12-month cohort includes buyers who entered during the latter stages of 2025 and early 2026. Glassnode’s data indicates that the group’s average entry price had been near $94,000 in November 2025 after Bitcoin moved beneath the level.
When Bitcoin later rose toward that trendline near $97,100 in January 2026, the recovery failed and price moved lower. Glassnode recorded a decline of more than one-third after Bitcoin reached the cohort’s cost-basis region during that episode.
The pattern is relevant to the present market structure because cost basis can turn into a supply source when a large group of holders has spent months carrying unrealized losses. Some holders may use a return to breakeven to reduce exposure, while others may take profits or rebalance holdings. Those decisions can add sell orders precisely where a rally is already losing momentum.
Glassnode also identifies a higher aggregate cost basis of $99,500 for Bitcoin held for one to two years. That group sold during the rally at the beginning of October even as the market traded below its average entry price, according to the platform’s cohort data.
The one-to-two-year group has already provided examples of how such price levels can influence a rebound. Its aggregate cost basis fell to about $76,900 in February, when Bitcoin dropped below the group’s average purchase level and pushed the cohort into aggregate unrealized losses. In May, a recovery just above $82,000 stalled near the same area. Glassnode said Bitcoin subsequently fell by roughly a quarter after that rejection.
Support builds around the ETF cost basis
The lower end of the current range contains a separate set of reference levels. Glassnode estimates the aggregate cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings at $81,500, placing it near the $80,000 area where bid liquidity has concentrated.
That does not establish an automatic price floor, but it gives the market a level tied to a large and relatively new source of Bitcoin demand. Buyers who entered through US-listed spot ETFs would, in aggregate, remain above water around $81,500. A sustained move below the area could change their positioning and test whether ETF-linked demand remains durable during a deeper correction.
The supplied market data puts the total value held by spot Bitcoin funds above $106 billion by late October 2026. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest individual US spot Bitcoin ETF, is described as holding more than 811,100 BTC. Large ETF reserves do not prevent price declines, but they have made institutional-style spot demand a more visible element of Bitcoin’s market structure than in previous cycles.
Below $80,000, Glassnode identifies a liquidation cluster just under that round-number level. Liquidations occur when leveraged positions are forcibly closed after collateral no longer meets platform requirements. A breach of a heavily watched level can therefore accelerate a decline if long positions are concentrated nearby.
Glassnode’s next reference point is Bitcoin’s “true market mean,” estimated at $77,500. The metric tracks the cost basis of BTC acquired in secondary-market transactions and is intended to filter out coins that have remained dormant since issuance or moved through non-market transfers.
Short-term holders, defined by Glassnode as entities holding coins for up to six months, have an estimated breakeven price of $74,600. That leaves a layered downside structure: ETF cost basis near $81,500, liquidation risk under $80,000, the true market mean around $77,500, and short-term-holder breakeven at $74,600.
A range defined by supply and demand markers
Bitcoin’s price is therefore caught between two very different holder behaviors. Near $87,700, recent buyers appear positioned to sell into a recovery that restores their capital. Near $80,000, ETF-related cost basis and visible bid interest provide the first major support area.
Network data adds a separate measure of resilience. Bitcoin’s hashrate, the computing power committed to securing the network, has remained above 1,000 exahashes per second according to the supplied figures. Hashrate does not dictate short-term price direction, but sustained mining participation indicates that operators continue to commit substantial resources to the chain despite market volatility.
For the market, the immediate question is whether Bitcoin can absorb supply between roughly $87,000 and $88,000. A sustained move through that band would bring the $99,500 cost basis of one-to-two-year holders into clearer view. A loss of the ETF cost-basis area near $81,500 would instead put the $77,500 true market mean and the short-term-holder breakeven level at the center of trading.
Spot similar on-chain resistance setups and ETF flows in our latest market breakdown: read the full analysis.
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