Bitcoin enters early bull market stage

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Bitcoin’s rally has pushed the market to within reach of a technical level that CryptoQuant says would confirm the early phase of a new bull cycle: a daily close above the 365-day moving average near $83,000.

Bitcoin traded above $81,000 during the week after gaining more than 25% since early last week, according to CryptoQuant. The blockchain analytics firm placed the 365-day moving average at about $83,100, while noting that Bitcoin’s latest close near $79,000 remained roughly 5% below that threshold.

CryptoQuant analyst Moreno said Bitcoin’s longer market cycles have historically turned more constructive after the asset reclaimed its 365-day average. In the firm’s framework, sustained trading above that line has coincided with bull-market conditions, while losses below it have accompanied bear-market periods. A move through $83,000 would therefore shift attention from a sharp recovery rally to whether demand can support a more durable trend.

Demand metrics turn higher alongside price

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 within one week, the firm said, marking its strongest reading since Oct. 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded around $124,000. Eight of the model’s 10 onchain, market and valuation indicators were positive, according to the report.

The firm also said apparent spot demand was expanding at its fastest monthly rate since late December. More notably, demand in both spot and futures markets has increased at the same time for the first time since early October 2025, when Bitcoin reached its previous all-time high.

Spot demand reflects purchases of Bitcoin for direct ownership, while futures demand represents activity in contracts tied to the asset’s price. A simultaneous increase can give a rally more momentum, although futures-led moves can become unstable when leverage builds too rapidly.

CryptoQuant linked the latest advance partly to macroeconomic developments in the United States. The firm cited the U.S. Treasury’s plan to double long-term government bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation beginning Sept. 9. Bond buybacks can affect liquidity conditions in government debt markets, a factor crypto traders increasingly watch alongside interest-rate expectations and dollar strength.

The report also pointed to comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that the U.S. government may be considering buying Bitcoin. CryptoQuant did not present a formal government acquisition plan, but the remarks added to a market already reacting to improving demand indicators and a fast price recovery.

Profit-taking risks build near resistance

The same data that supports Bitcoin’s advance also shows a market where some holders have begun locking in gains. CryptoQuant described short-term conditions as “overheated,” warning that the rapid move has created incentives for selling near resistance.

Traders’ unrealized profit margin reached 20.5%, CryptoQuant said, its highest level since June 2025. Unrealized profits measure the gain holders would receive if they sold their coins at current prices. Elevated readings do not automatically signal a reversal, but CryptoQuant said comparable periods have often been followed by profit-taking and additional selling pressure.

Short-term holders, which CryptoQuant categorized as “new” whales, realized $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22. The firm recorded a single-day peak of $614 million in realized profits on Aug. 20, when Bitcoin traded near $78,000 to $79,000.

That activity places $83,000 in a potentially difficult area for the market. Bitcoin would need to absorb selling from recently profitable holders while attracting enough fresh spot demand to convert the former moving-average barrier into support.

Exchange inflows point to more coins becoming available to sell

CryptoQuant also reported rising exchange inflows across Bitcoin, Ether and several altcoins. Coins transferred to exchanges can be sold, traded or used as collateral, so higher inflows often draw scrutiny when a market has just risen quickly.

Bitcoin inflows reached about 53,000 BTC, CryptoQuant said, the highest level since June 5. Ether inflows climbed to roughly 1.7 million ETH, also their highest since June 5.

Whale inflows of XRP reached approximately 460 million XRP, the largest level since February, according to the firm. Across altcoins, seven-day cumulative deposit transactions rose to around 39,000, the highest reading since early July. CryptoQuant said most of those deposits went to Binance.

The figures do not establish that every deposited coin will be sold. Large holders also move assets to exchanges for derivatives trading, collateral management or transfers between accounts. Yet the scale of the inflows, combined with rising unrealized gains, suggests that Bitcoin’s rally has encouraged holders to prepare for more active trading.

A technical test after a rapid recovery

Bitcoin’s move from below $80,000 to above $81,000 has improved market sentiment and lifted CryptoQuant’s demand measures, but the price remains below the technical level the firm uses to identify a confirmed bull-market transition.

A close above roughly $83,000 would place Bitcoin back over its 365-day moving average and test whether the recent demand surge can continue after short-term holders have already taken substantial profits. Failure to clear that range would leave the market vulnerable to renewed selling from holders who accumulated during the latest rebound.

For now, CryptoQuant’s data presents a split picture: improving spot and futures demand is supporting Bitcoin’s recovery, while elevated profits and heavy exchange inflows raise the odds of volatility near the $83,000 barrier.