Bitcoin’s slide to $57,800 on July 1 drew far less visible dip-buying than previous sharp pullbacks, according to the HODL Waves indicator tracked by Look Into Bitcoin. The muted response raises questions about how broadly demand returned at the lowest BTC/USD level since September 2024, even after Bitcoin later recovered above $80,000.
The share of Bitcoin supply that had moved within the prior one to seven days stood at 1.97% on July 1, when BTC fell below $58,000. By July 5, the band had increased only to 2.35%, Look Into Bitcoin data showed. That 0.38-percentage-point increase suggested some coins changed hands after the decline, but it did not resemble the sharp burst of recent activity often associated with a widespread rush to buy a major dip.
HODL Waves sorts Bitcoin’s circulating supply according to the length of time coins have remained in a wallet without moving. The one-to-seven-day cohort is closely watched because it can show whether newly acquired coins are entering the network after a market move. A rising share can indicate fresh buying, though it cannot identify the buyers or establish their motives.
Woo flags possible concentration in buying
Willy Woo, an independent onchain analyst, described the limited increase as an anomaly and suggested that buying may have been concentrated among a very small number of participants, “possibly even a single whale.”
Woo said the data appeared consistent with steady accumulation rather than the coordinated buying surge that would emerge if a much larger group of traders had responded to the July sell-off. He also warned that institutional investment structures may not appear cleanly in the metric, limiting the ability to draw firm conclusions from wallet-age data alone.
That limitation is particularly relevant for Bitcoin exposure held through regulated funds, custodians, or other pooled vehicles. The HODL Waves measure follows onchain coin movement, while a change in ownership of a fund share can occur without a corresponding movement of Bitcoin from the custodian’s wallet. A quiet one-to-seven-day band therefore does not rule out demand from fund buyers, but it does show that the sell-off did not trigger a large, easily visible redistribution of coins on the blockchain.
The distinction leaves two plausible readings of the July low. Buyers may have accumulated gradually and through relatively concentrated channels, reducing the short-term impact on the HODL Waves data. Alternatively, broader spot-market participation may simply have remained cautious despite Bitcoin reaching a multi-month low.
A rebound did not erase the chart debate
Bitcoin’s subsequent move above $80,000 helped ease immediate pressure after the July decline, but the recovery did not settle the argument over whether $57,800 marked a durable market bottom.
The analyst known as Rekt Capital said the broader price structure continued to show lower highs, a pattern associated with a downtrend unless Bitcoin can reclaim prior resistance levels. In a Thursday market update, Rekt Capital said a weekly close below roughly $78,300 could open the way for a breakdown resembling the weakness seen in May.
That threshold gives the market a more concrete test than intraday moves around round-number levels. Bitcoin can trade above $80,000 during volatile sessions while remaining vulnerable if it cannot preserve support into the weekly close. A close below $78,300 would place the rebound under renewed scrutiny, while sustained trading above that range would weaken the immediate breakdown scenario.
The HODL Waves data and the chart structure are measuring different parts of the market. Price charts show whether sellers or buyers have gained control at key levels. Wallet-age data can offer clues about whether recent price action is drawing in new holders. Neither measure can independently confirm that a bottom has formed.
Fund demand adds a separate layer to the picture
Reported demand through US spot Bitcoin ETFs improved during August, after the July low. Those vehicles can channel substantial capital into Bitcoin while leaving only a limited signature in short-term onchain ownership bands, depending on custody arrangements and how fund issuers manage underlying holdings.
That dynamic makes it harder to use a single blockchain metric as a complete measure of market demand. ETF flow data, onchain transfers, derivatives positioning and spot price levels can all point in different directions over short periods. Fund purchases may support demand for underlying Bitcoin, while traders using futures or options can still amplify price swings around technical support.
Large fund holdings also do not automatically create a fixed price floor. ETF shares can be bought and sold quickly, and changes in net creations or redemptions can affect demand for the underlying asset. The reported two-day withdrawal of $166 million from US spot funds illustrates how quickly sentiment can shift even after periods of strong inflows.
Bitcoin’s network security has continued to expand alongside these market movements. The network’s global hashrate reportedly reached 970 exahashes per second, reflecting the computing power committed by miners to process transactions and secure the blockchain. Hashrate can provide a view of mining participation and infrastructure investment, but it is not a direct signal of short-term buying demand or price support.
For the moment, the July low remains better described as a contested turning point than a confirmed floor. A renewed increase in the one-to-seven-day HODL Waves cohort would show more recent coins entering circulation, while Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the levels identified by Rekt Capital would offer a clearer test of whether the rebound has developed into a more durable recovery.
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