US stocks fall as oil lifts yields

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted $635.6 million in net outflows on Thursday, their largest daily withdrawal in October, as a rise in oil prices and Treasury yields pressured risk-sensitive assets across financial markets. The withdrawal erased nearly 60% of the approximately $1.07 billion that had entered the funds during the previous three sessions, according to the ETF flow figures provided.

The outflows arrived as U.S. stocks fell for a second consecutive session and crude oil settled at its highest level since April. Brent crude for December delivery rose 3.1% to $116.72 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 3.82% to $103.27. The energy-driven inflation concern pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up 3.5 basis points to 4.988%, increasing pressure on assets whose valuations are more sensitive to interest rates.

Bitcoin-linked shares also weakened. Coinbase fell 2.74%, while publicly traded mining companies declined by roughly 3% to 5%. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was comparatively unchanged, closing 0.14% higher at $146.01.

Despite Thursday’s withdrawal, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs retained $57.8 billion in cumulative net inflows and $100.2 billion in total net assets, based on the supplied ETF data. That leaves the products with a far larger capital base than during earlier market pullbacks, although the session showed that demand can reverse quickly when macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.

Oil and yields set the tone for risk assets

The stock market’s decline was led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which dropped 652.82 points, or 1.23%. The S&P 500 lost 0.52%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.21%. The narrower losses in the technology-heavy Nasdaq reflected a partial rebound in semiconductor shares after their sharp decline in the previous session.

Fresh U.S. labor-market figures added to the move in yields. Initial jobless claims came in at 194,000, below a 200,000 forecast, while continuing claims reached 1.728 million, slightly above expectations of 1.720 million. The data pointed to a labor market that remains relatively firm, reducing the immediate case for rapid interest-rate cuts.

Rising oil prices complicate that picture. Higher crude prices can feed through to transport, manufacturing and consumer costs, leaving policymakers cautious about declaring inflation contained. Reports of Houthi attacks and expectations of further tension involving the United States and Iran were among the geopolitical developments being tracked by markets.

U.S. diesel prices were listed at $6.30 a gallon, while officials were also weighing supply risks and tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The supplied figures put the reserve near 282.7 million barrels, a level that limits the scale of any future release intended to cushion a prolonged oil shock.

Energy gains while rate-sensitive shares retreat

Energy companies benefited directly from the crude-price rally. Exxon Mobil rose 2.79% to $183.21, and Chevron gained 2.88% to finish at $233.21. Chevron reached a new 52-week high of $233.74 during the session.

Other large industrial and consumer-facing companies moved lower. Caterpillar fell 2.42%, Nike lost 2.66%, and American Express declined 3.67% to $313.22 after announcing plans to eliminate roughly 3,500 jobs, or about 5% of its workforce.

The job cuts add a corporate cost-control element to a market already focused on rates and inflation. American Express did not frame the reduction in the supplied material as a response to any single macroeconomic factor, but the announcement came as companies assess spending plans against elevated borrowing costs.

Semiconductor stocks, meanwhile, stabilized after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.72% in the previous session. The index rose 0.44%, led by gains in Micron, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. Nvidia fell 0.59%, while Broadcom and Western Digital also closed lower.

The mixed performance suggests traders were willing to buy selected chip names after the prior selloff, without making a broad return to growth-oriented equities. Mega-cap technology shares were similarly divided: Microsoft gained 0.66% ahead of its scheduled Oct. 28 earnings release, while Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla and Meta all declined.

Bitcoin treasury valuations diverge

The session also showed a growing contrast between companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Strategy’s market capitalization was listed at $61.61 billion, below an estimated $68.43 billion value for its 848,517 BTC holdings using a Bitcoin price of $80,644. That calculation implies a market-value-to-holdings ratio of about 0.90, placing the company’s equity at roughly a 10% discount to the estimated value of its Bitcoin.

Strive traded at a different valuation. The company reported holdings of 36,818 BTC after buying 1,223 BTC for about $100 million on Oct. 19. At $80,644 per Bitcoin, those holdings would be worth around $2.97 billion, compared with Strive’s listed market value of $3.59 billion. The resulting ratio of about 1.21 represents a premium of roughly 21%.

Strive also introduced a preferred-share class carrying a 15% coupon on Oct. 20. The structure gives the company another financing route but also raises its fixed payment obligations, a more consequential consideration while yields remain near 5%.

Fed meeting comes into focus

Markets were monitoring the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27-28 meeting, with the policy decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern time on Oct. 28. No Summary of Economic Projections is scheduled for release alongside the decision.

The federal funds target range stood at 3.75% to 4.00% following a 25-basis-point increase after the Sept. 16 meeting, according to the supplied material. Market pricing indicated expectations that the upper bound would remain at 4.00%.

The combination of ETF outflows, rising Treasury yields and an oil-driven inflation concern places Bitcoin and other high-volatility assets under a more demanding macroeconomic backdrop. The next Federal Reserve decision will test whether traders see the recent ETF withdrawal as a brief reduction in risk exposure or the beginning of a more sustained retreat from Bitcoin funds.