Trueo plans to move its decentralized prediction-market protocol from Base to Ethereum mainnet, seeking to build directly on the network where Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has called for more competition in prediction markets. The project announced the plan on Sept. 22, saying there is no fixed migration date and that its Base deployment will continue operating during the transition.
Project lead MilliΞ confirmed the planned move before Buterin said he was looking forward to seeing another prediction-market competitor on Ethereum’s base layer. The endorsement helped draw immediate attention to a protocol that has remained relatively small by trading activity since launching on Base in March 2025.
TRUE, the protocol’s governance and dispute-resolution token, rose more than tenfold in roughly five hours after the announcement, moving from about $0.02 to a peak near $0.214, according to market data. The token later traded around $0.11, placing its fully diluted valuation near $11 million based on its fixed maximum supply of 100 million TRUE.
Trueo said it selected Base during its early development because Ethereum mainnet transactions were more expensive and the protocol’s design was still being tested. The team now argues that Ethereum mainnet offers the network effects and global integration needed for a “highly integrated, permissionless” prediction-market system.
Base markets will remain available
The migration will not immediately close the existing Base protocol. Trueo said trading, settlement and redemption will continue on the layer-2 network, while holders of TYD, its interest-bearing settlement asset, will continue accruing yield.
Users have been advised not to create markets that settle after Jan. 31, 2027. The team said longer-dated markets should wait for the Ethereum mainnet version, an approach that limits the number of unresolved positions that may remain on Base once the mainnet protocol is ready.
Trueo’s decision gives it direct access to Ethereum’s settlement layer, potentially reducing the need for users to bridge capital before interacting with its core contracts. Yet the move also places the project in a more demanding environment, where liquidity is spread across a large number of decentralized finance protocols and established prediction-market venues.
The protocol said its initial mainnet priorities will be building liquidity in selected market categories and launching a “next-generation oracle.” That oracle overhaul is central to the project’s execution challenge because Trueo’s market-resolution system has already faced a prominent dispute involving several rounds of arbitration.
Low trading activity raises the stakes
Trueo’s locked value has reached about $800,000, according to DefiLlama, putting it ahead of some smaller prediction-market experiments by deposits. Its trading activity tells a different story. DefiLlama data cited for the seven days before the announcement showed about $2,775 in volume and roughly $11 in protocol fee revenue during the preceding 24 hours.
Those figures trail other Base-based prediction products by a wide margin. Limitless recorded about $2.15 million in weekly volume and Sport.fun about $1.42 million over the same period, according to the figures cited. Their cumulative volumes were listed at roughly $1.465 billion and $134 million, respectively, compared with about $780,000 for Trueo since launch.
The gap suggests Trueo’s Ethereum plan is aimed less at relocating an already active market than at finding the liquidity and users it has not yet captured on Base. A mainnet launch alone would not resolve that problem. The team will need to persuade traders that its yield-bearing collateral and multi-layered dispute process offer advantages over simpler market designs.
Liquidity is another constraint. The TRUE token’s liquidity pool depth was estimated at around $600,000, while the eventual mainnet deployment date remains open. The sharp post-announcement price move showed how quickly a relatively small token can react to attention, but the subsequent retreat from its peak also underscored the limits of thin markets.
Yield-bearing collateral and layered disputes
Trueo’s markets use TYD, or True Yield Dollar, rather than ordinary USDC as their settlement unit. Users deposit USDC to mint TYD, an ERC-4626 vault token built with Yearn Finance. Trueo says the vault targets a yield rate that matches or exceeds the USDC deposit rate on Aave’s Base deployment.
That structure allows collateral posted in a market to earn yield while positions remain open. It also adds a second layer of operational complexity: market participants must rely not only on the outcome-resolution process, but also on the vault mechanics used to manage the settlement asset.
Outcomes are settled through a seven-stage optimistic-oracle arbitration process. In the first stage, any user can submit an outcome by posting a 250 TYD bond, triggering a 12-hour challenge window. Objections move the case to an Oracle Council, also using a 250 TYD bond.
Further challenges increase the required bond to 750 TYD and send the ruling to a vote by TRUE holders. In the final stage, holders or stakers with at least 250,000 TRUE can request a ruling by 11 randomly selected, high-reputation attesters. Bond requirements are set when a market is created using a snapshot of protocol conditions.
The mechanism was tested during an April-to-May dispute over a market asking whether Polymarket would issue a token. An Oracle Council decision reached by a 3–2 vote was overturned by a TRUE-holder vote, then reversed again through the final attester process. The market was ultimately reset.
Buterin referenced the dispute in May 2026, arguing that prediction-market quality depends on oracle reliability and suggesting that attester voting should be private. His earlier involvement with the project included buying about 400 Patron NFTs for roughly 32 ETH in November 2024.
Token distribution leaves team stake under vesting
TRUE has a fixed supply of 100 million tokens. Patron NFT holders receive the largest allocation, 40.3%, covering 15,071 Oracle Patron NFTs and 59 Truth Seeker NFTs. Trueo raised more than $4 million through its public Patron NFT crowdfunding effort in November 2024, according to the project.
Team members and advisers hold 25% of supply, subject to two-year linear vesting. The remaining distribution includes 12.5% for TRUE/ETH liquidity incentives on Base, 12.5% for oracle ecosystem development and strategic partnerships, 7.5% for new-market subsidies, and 2.2% for genesis attesters, beta users and early Polymarket community members.
The anonymous team, which communicates under the MilliΞ name, previously operated as Truemarkets before changing its name because of a trademark issue. Its mainnet plan now turns attention from the rebrand and token rally toward whether its redesigned oracle can settle contested markets efficiently enough to attract sustained liquidity.
To deepen your understanding of on-chain prediction markets and oracles, explore this detailed guide next.
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