Wintermute says tokenized real-world assets could become crypto’s next measurable route for bringing fresh capital on-chain, following a period in which exchange-traded funds and digital-asset treasuries drove much of the market’s inflow activity. The market maker’s framework argues that each cycle has been shaped by a new access channel that attracts one-way net inflows before becoming a routine part of market infrastructure.
The argument comes as ETF flows have weakened, digital-asset treasury activity has concentrated around net asset value levels, and stablecoin supply has suffered its sharpest contraction since the Terra collapse, according to Wintermute. Tokenized funds, government bonds and other real-world assets have continued to expand during that period, giving the sector a different profile from the shrinking on-chain dollar base.
Wintermute estimates that tokenized real-world assets absorbed about $16 billion in net new capital over the past 12 months. That is roughly one-tenth of the strongest 12-month combined inflows recorded by ETFs and digital-asset treasuries during the previous cycle, but it puts RWA among the few categories still showing sustained growth in the report’s latest window.
Tokenized value rises above $30 billion
The report says on-chain tokenized value tripled in roughly a year to more than $30 billion. Much of that value remains concentrated in cash-management products, tokenized Treasury instruments and money-market funds, rather than tokenized equities or actively traded credit products.
That concentration shapes the near-term case for RWA. Treasury-backed tokens and fund shares appeal to institutions and businesses seeking yield-bearing cash equivalents, especially where stablecoin balances offer limited or no yield. Their growth does not automatically translate into demand for volatile cryptocurrencies, but it expands the amount of regulated financial value held in blockchain-based wallets and settled through on-chain rails.
Wintermute’s view is that this changes the initial point at which capital reaches crypto infrastructure. A buyer may enter through a tokenized government-bond fund or a tokenized equity rather than Bitcoin or another cryptoasset. Once those holdings are issued and managed on-chain, they can potentially be used alongside stablecoins and other digital assets in the same wallet environment.
The transition from passive tokenized holdings to more active on-chain use remains the central test. Tokenized assets would need to become accepted collateral across major trading venues, lending markets and decentralized-finance protocols before they could generate the kind of secondary-market flows that stablecoins produced in the 2020–21 cycle.
Earlier inflow engines have slowed
Wintermute measures market cycles through net inflows relative to total crypto market capitalization. By that measure, the firm estimates that aggregate inflows peaked near 12% of market capitalization in 2021 and roughly 10% in 2025. At the latest trough, that figure fell to about 2.4%.
The previous cycle’s principal channels have shown signs of maturity. Wintermute reports that ETFs brought in $63 billion in net inflows during 2024–25, while corporate and treasury accumulation through digital-asset treasury structures exceeded $115 billion over the same period. The market impact was concentrated in large-cap tokens, reflecting the assets most commonly held by ETF products and corporate treasuries.
The report also points to a recent improvement after the downturn. Over the past two weeks, it recorded a rebound from low levels across ETF flows and stablecoin minting. That recovery suggests the established channels have not disappeared, though Wintermute’s broader framework treats their strongest growth phase as likely to fade once access becomes familiar and widely available.
Its historical comparisons illustrate the pattern. Venture capital and initial coin offering activity led the 2017–18 period, while stablecoins became the dominant liquidity route in 2020–21. Wintermute says stablecoin issuance exceeded $120 billion in net terms in a single year during that cycle.
Each channel expanded rapidly after reaching sufficient scale, then lost momentum as market participants incorporated it into normal activity. The report’s thesis is less that any one structure permanently replaces another than that new structures can add demand during periods when older ones no longer deliver accelerating inflows.
RWA remains early in Wintermute’s timeline
Wintermute estimates that inflow channels generally reach their peak between 20 and 60 months after becoming measurable at scale. ETFs peaked at around 20 months under its methodology, stablecoins at approximately 33 months, and venture capital and ICOs at about 54 months.
Real-world asset tokenization is about 18 months into that timeline, the report says. Its trailing 12-month inflows equal roughly 0.9% of crypto market capitalization, a faster pace than digital-asset treasuries had reached at a comparable age but slightly below the trajectory of ETFs.
That comparison needs to be viewed alongside the different products involved. ETFs direct funds into a narrow set of underlying cryptoassets. Digital-asset treasuries typically buy and hold tokens on corporate balance sheets. Tokenized RWAs, by contrast, may represent conventional financial instruments whose buyers have no initial intention of taking crypto market exposure.
The potential connection emerges after settlement. If tokenized funds and bonds increasingly use stablecoins for transactions and gain acceptance as collateral, their holders could move capital among tokenized securities, cash-like assets and cryptoassets without leaving on-chain markets. That would give blockchain-based financial infrastructure a larger role in the movement of traditional assets, rather than merely offering another wrapper for them.
Collateral use could determine the next phase
Most tokenized assets remain distributed through permissioned systems with eligibility restrictions and transfer controls. Those features suit regulated funds and securities, but they also limit the composability that has helped decentralized finance grow around stablecoins and crypto collateral.
Wintermute identifies two conditions that could widen usage: market-structure and tokenization rules that permit broader ownership and transfer of tokenized securities, and acceptance of tokenized Treasuries and funds as collateral in major venues and decentralized-finance applications.
The second condition is particularly consequential for on-chain liquidity. A tokenized Treasury held only for yield functions mainly as a digital record of a traditional asset. The same instrument, if widely accepted for borrowing, margin or liquidity provision, could support additional transactions without requiring holders to sell it first.
Wintermute’s data therefore places RWA growth at an early but more operationally demanding stage than previous inflow channels. The category has already attracted capital while stablecoin supply was contracting. Whether it develops into a larger source of crypto-market liquidity will depend on whether tokenized holdings become usable financial collateral rather than remaining largely passive, permissioned cash-management products.
Explore how real-world assets could unlock the next wave of on-chain liquidity and reshape crypto market inflow cycles.
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