PUMP, the token associated with Solana meme-coin platform PumpFun, was trading at $0.0047 on Sept. 9 while Blockworks Research estimated a probability-weighted value range of $0.0108 to $0.0205. The gap rests on PumpFun’s revenue generation and a program that directs half of protocol revenue toward PUMP buybacks and burns, though the token’s economics also face competition, scheduled insider unlocks and no stated claim on company revenue.
Blockworks Research valued PUMP at a 2.8x price-to-sales multiple and placed the indicated range at roughly 2.3x to 4.4x above the Sept. 9 market price. Its model used bear, base and bull cases weighted at 25%, 50% and 25%, respectively.
The valuation is built around a business that Blockworks Research estimated was generating $677 million in annualized revenue, after accumulating $1.37 billion since 2024. The report ranked PumpFun’s weekly revenue volatility at 29.7%, the lowest among the 10 largest revenue-generating protocols included in its comparison.
Revenue is increasingly spread across PumpFun products
PumpFun began as a token launchpad but has developed into a broader trading stack. Its infrastructure segment includes the launchpad and PumpSwap, its decentralized exchange, while its consumer products include Terminal and a mobile app.
Daily front-end trading volume across Terminal and the mobile app rose 5.6-fold between early July and early September, according to Blockworks Research. The first-week average was about $15 million, rising to $84 million in the first week of September, with volume reaching $100 million on Sept. 4.
Mobile daily active users also climbed sharply over that period, from 5,600 to 34,100. Applying a 50-basis-point fee to recent mobile volumes, the research firm estimated that the mobile app alone could generate $128 million in annual revenue, equal to a 24% increase over its estimate of current revenue.
PumpFun was estimated to handle 70% of meme-coin trading volume on Solana and about half of meme-coin decentralized-exchange volume across chains. Its share of Solana launchpad bonding-curve activity stood near 98%, according to the report.
That early-stage trading model is central to its fee engine. Users can create tokens without first supplying liquidity to an automated market maker. Trading initially takes place through a bonding curve, an automated pricing mechanism using virtual reserves. Once a token reaches the platform’s graduation threshold, liquidity is funded and trading moves into a PumpSwap pool.
PumpFun charges 125 basis points on bonding-curve trades and retains 95 basis points, Blockworks Research said. Its modeling assumed take rates of 91 basis points on launchpad bonding-curve volume, 14 basis points on PumpSwap volume and roughly 58 basis points on volume routed through Terminal.
PumpSwap growth has strengthened the secondary-trading business
Combined quarterly revenue from the launchpad and PumpSwap reached $85.2 million in the second quarter of 2026, according to the report. Based on third-quarter performance available when the analysis was published, Blockworks Research estimated an annualized run rate of $125.4 million for the two products, up 47% quarter over quarter.
The launchpad accounted for an estimated $87.1 million annualized run rate, a 41% quarterly increase. PumpSwap was projected at $38.3 million, up 64% quarter over quarter. Its realized take rate increased from 5 basis points to 13.3 basis points.
The platform’s revenue remains heavily tied to small, fast-moving tokens. Blockworks Research calculated that 96% of PumpFun revenue came from tokens with market capitalizations below $1 million. In January 2025, 94% of revenue came from tokens less than a day old and 97% from tokens less than a month old. By August 2026, those figures had moderated only slightly, to 87% and 94%.
This dependence exposes revenue to shifts in token issuance and speculation, but the report argued that trading activity has held up better than meme-coin valuations. The total market capitalization of tokens launched through PumpFun was down 81% from its January 2025 high. Yet revenue denominated in SOL reached 661,000 SOL in August, exceeding the 647,000 SOL recorded during January 2025.
August token issuance was 69% of the January 2025 peak, bonding-curve trades were 76% of peak and bonding-curve volume in SOL was 91% of peak. Secondary-market meme-coin volume, by contrast, stood at 11% of peak and the market capitalization of PumpFun-launched tokens was 19% of peak.
Buybacks could absorb supply, but token holders lack cash-flow rights
PumpFun began directing 50% of protocol revenue to programmatic PUMP buybacks and burns through a locked contract on April 28, 2026. The program is set to run for one year. At launch, the mechanism included a $370 million PUMP burn, equal to 36% of circulating supply at that time, according to Blockworks Research.
Using the preceding 30 days of revenue, the firm estimated buyback flow at about $27.8 million per month. Its figures through Sept. 8 implied a 16.4% annualized buyback rate and an absorption rate equal to about 17.6% of circulating supply.
In its three valuation cases, Blockworks Research modeled annual revenue of $310 million, $836 million and $2.5 billion. At a 50% buyback allocation, that would produce annual buyback-and-burn totals of $155 million, $418 million and $1.24 billion. Using a $1.93 billion PUMP market capitalization and holding token prices constant, the report estimated that buybacks through April 28, 2027 could remove an amount equivalent to 5.1%, 13.7% or 40.7% of current market capitalization.
The mechanism does not give PUMP holders a contractual claim on PumpFun or Baton Corp revenue, profits, dividends, distributions or corporate assets. Blockworks Research also cited an estimated $2 billion Baton Corp treasury that belongs to the company rather than PUMP holders. Buybacks can reduce tradable supply, but they do not convert the token into equity.
Unlock schedule and rivals remain constraints
The token’s supply schedule presents a separate challenge. Team-held tokens representing 20% of supply and tokens allocated to existing backers representing 13% face a 12-month cliff ending July 12, 2026. That event covers 82.5 billion PUMP: 50 billion for the team and 32.5 billion for existing backers.
Afterward, 6.875 billion PUMP is scheduled to unlock monthly over 36 months through July 2029. About 4.2 billion tokens per month are assigned to the team and 2.7 billion to existing backers.
Blockworks Research’s on-chain review found that 62.1 billion PUMP had moved to related recipient wallets by Aug. 31. Of those tokens, 5% had been sold on-chain, 13% had moved to deposit addresses and 5% had been transferred to other wallets. Roughly three-quarters remained in their original receiving wallets.
Competition has also intensified. Weekly launchpad fees across PumpFun, Pons and STONK rose from $20.8 million in the first week of July to $92.4 million for the week ending Sept. 8. PumpFun’s share of fees among those three platforms fell to 32% from 90% in the week ending Aug. 25, according to the report.
PUMP’s valuation case therefore depends less on a return to the meme-coin market caps seen in early 2025 than on PumpFun’s ability to preserve high-frequency launch and trading activity, expand PumpSwap and consumer volumes, and maintain enough revenue for buybacks to offset the supply entering the market.
Explore more on meme coin dynamics and PUMP-style launches in our guide to meme coins and how they work.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
