Older Bitcoin holders appear to be reducing their onchain spending after a year-long period of distribution, with the share of realized capitalization tied to coins dormant for at least 18 months easing from a recent high, according to data tracked by CryptoQuant.
The 18-month-and-older cohort accounted for 26.98% of Bitcoin’s realized cap on Sept. 16, its highest share since mid-November 2024. That figure had slipped to 26.59% in the latest reading, while remaining broadly stable since mid-September. The decline is modest, but it points to a pause in the rising contribution from long-dormant coins that began in November 2025.
Realized cap values each Bitcoin according to the price at which it last moved onchain, rather than using the current market price. When older coins are transferred, their value is updated at more recent prices, changing the share of realized cap associated with different holder groups. The metric can therefore offer a view of whether long-held supply is becoming active.
CryptoQuant’s historical review linked extended periods of lower activity among older holders with the early stages of prior Bitcoin bull markets. The current data does not yet establish a comparable cycle turn, but it shows that selling pressure from one of Bitcoin’s most closely watched supply cohorts has cooled while Bitcoin remains below its $126,200 all-time high.
Recent buyers carry the heaviest losses
The data also places the current downturn’s losses mainly among relatively recent long-term holders. Within the long-term holder category, Bitcoin held for between 18 months and two years is the only group whose aggregate cost basis is above the market price, according to CryptoQuant.
That cohort’s realized price stands at $93,193. Bitcoin has traded below that level since the 2025 peak, leaving this group at a net unrealized loss. Holders with coins dormant for longer periods remain, in aggregate, profitable.
The distinction matters because coins bought closer to a cycle high are generally more sensitive to price declines than holdings accumulated years earlier at much lower prices. A holder sitting on gains has greater room to retain exposure during a drawdown, while a buyer underwater may be more likely to sell if prices recover toward their purchase price.
CryptoQuant’s 2026 data shows Bitcoin holding above the realized price of the two-to-three-year holder cohort. The firm described that as the first bear-market period in which the price had not fallen below that group’s cost basis. If sustained, that pattern would indicate that buyers from the prior cycle’s later stages have retained more of their gains than comparable cohorts did in earlier downturns.
Five-year holders are moving fewer coins
The slowdown is also visible among Bitcoin’s oldest tracked supply. Coins that last moved at least five years ago have been sending fewer BTC onchain in 2026 than in the previous two years, according to CryptoQuant’s monthly volume data.
The five-year-plus cohort moved an average of 67,000 BTC a month during 2024, falling to 47,000 BTC a month in 2025. Since October 2024, the group has transferred a combined 1.11 million BTC onchain.
In 2026, the same holders have averaged roughly 34,000 BTC in monthly onchain volume, about half the 2024 pace. Onchain transfers do not always represent immediate sales; coins may be moved for custody changes, estate planning, internal wallet management or over-the-counter transactions. Even so, a sustained decline in transfers from such old supply reduces the visible flow of previously dormant Bitcoin entering circulation.
CryptoQuant linked the earlier distribution period to demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin-focused digital asset treasury companies. Those vehicles can absorb substantial amounts of available Bitcoin, though onchain holder behavior alone cannot identify the buyer in each transaction.
The combination of lower movement from five-year holders and a leveling-off in the 18-month-plus realized-cap share suggests that the supply released by veteran holders has become less intense than it was through 2024 and 2025. That does not automatically produce a rally: Bitcoin’s price would still depend on demand, macroeconomic conditions, derivatives positioning and liquidity across trading venues. It does, though, leave less evidence of persistent selling from the market’s oldest supply.
A historically limited drawdown
Galaxy Digital has characterized the current decline as the “shallowest” Bitcoin bear market on record, measuring the maximum drawdown from the all-time high at 53%. Bitcoin’s $126,200 peak provides the reference point for that calculation.
A 53% decline remains severe by conventional market standards, but it compares favorably with Bitcoin’s earlier cycle drawdowns, which were substantially deeper. The ability to hold above the two-to-three-year realized-price level aligns with that assessment, suggesting that demand has absorbed a larger share of supply without forcing prices below the average acquisition level of that cohort.
The market structure also differs from periods when older holders distributed aggressively into rising prices. Bitcoin’s spot ETF market and treasury-company buying have created large, identifiable channels of demand for coins held outside exchanges. Their presence does not remove volatility or guarantee renewed upside, but it can change where distributed supply goes and how quickly it is absorbed.
For now, the onchain picture is one of moderation rather than a definitive reversal. Long-dormant holders have not stopped moving coins, and the 18-month-plus realized-cap share remains near a multi-month high. Yet the easing in activity, alongside the concentration of losses among the newest long-term holders, indicates that the selling pressure associated with the latest drawdown has become more contained than it was during the preceding distribution phase.
As long-term BTC holders pause selling, learn how these trends shape strategy in current market trends and on-chain data.
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