Mizuho has cut its price target on BitGo to $11 from $14 while maintaining an Outperform rating, arguing that delays in U.S. digital-asset legislation could slow the company’s route to higher-quality earnings even as its revenue and customer base expand. BitGo shares traded at $5.61 at 2:47 p.m. EST, leaving the revised target roughly 96% above the quoted market price.
The lower target reflects a more cautious valuation view rather than a reversal of Mizuho’s positive stance on BitGo’s position in regulated digital-asset infrastructure. In a research note published Thursday, the bank pointed to uncertainty surrounding U.S. market-structure legislation, including repeated delays involving the Clarity Act.
The proposed legislation is intended to establish a federal framework for digital assets and clarify the division of oversight among U.S. regulators. Its delay leaves companies operating in custody, tokenization and stablecoin-related services without a settled rulebook, complicating forecasts for product launches, compliance costs and the pace at which traditional financial institutions may enter the sector.
Legislative delays reshape the competitive outlook
Mizuho said the lack of a final framework could also prolong BitGo’s existing regulatory advantage. The bank described BitGo as operating the first federally chartered digital-asset trust bank owned by a publicly traded company, a structure that gives the firm a regulatory footprint that newer competitors may struggle to replicate quickly.
That advantage creates an unusual split in the outlook. A slower legislative process can hold back industry-wide expansion, particularly for institutions waiting for clearer federal rules before deploying tokenized products. Yet it may also protect established providers with regulated custody infrastructure and existing institutional relationships.
Mizuho cited BitGo’s work with the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, Canton and Figure as evidence of its push beyond conventional cryptocurrency custody. Those relationships are tied to tokenized securities and other onchain financial products, placing BitGo in a segment where regulated settlement, asset safekeeping and identity controls are likely to carry more weight than simple trading activity.
The Clarity Act’s timetable remains central to that strategy. The supplied material said Senate Majority Leader John Thune had pushed a reform vote to September, extending uncertainty over the eventual form of federal oversight. Separately, a planned agency rule meeting was reportedly canceled because of a scheduling conflict, removing another near-term event that market participants had watched for regulatory signals.
Revenue growth has yet to deliver comparable profitability
BitGo reported $4.33 billion in total revenue in the second quarter, a 79.6% increase from a year earlier. The company posted a net loss of $19 million, an improvement from the $60.7 million loss reported in the preceding quarter.
The figures show a business growing rapidly in volume while facing a far harder task in converting that activity into earnings. Digital-token sales accounted for roughly $4.2 billion of quarterly revenue, while associated expenses were reported at approximately $4.19 billion. On those figures, token-sale activity generated substantial turnover but contributed relatively little room to cover overhead, technology spending and other operating costs.
That revenue mix helps explain why Mizuho’s target moved lower despite the Outperform rating. Large top-line gains can support a higher-growth narrative, but markets typically assign greater value to recurring revenue streams and durable margins than to activity that produces high revenue alongside nearly equivalent direct costs.
Subscription and services revenue rose 7% from the prior quarter, according to Mizuho. The bank also said services tied to stablecoins rose 148% to $38.8 million during the reporting period. Although much smaller than token-sale revenue, these services may be more useful in assessing BitGo’s ability to build repeatable, less transaction-dependent income.
Customer growth supports the infrastructure case
Mizuho said BitGo’s customer base increased 27% from a year earlier. The supplied figures put total client accounts at 5,833, up 26%. Those numbers suggest institutional demand is extending beyond a small base of early cryptocurrency-native users, even while legislative uncertainty limits visibility into the speed of future adoption.
The customer-account figure does not reveal the value or activity level of each relationship, and it should not be treated as a direct measure of assets under custody or future revenue. It does show that BitGo is adding clients while developing services around stablecoins and tokenized financial instruments, two areas likely to depend heavily on clear regulatory treatment.
BitGo’s board has also approved a $50 million share-repurchase program, according to the supplied material. A buyback can reduce the number of shares outstanding and signal confidence from management and directors, although its practical effect depends on the timing and scale of actual purchases.
The company is also facing a finance leadership transition. Chief Financial Officer Reginelli is expected to step down by mid-September, adding an operational change as BitGo manages profitability questions and pursues infrastructure partnerships.
Mizuho disclosed that it managed or co-managed a BitGo public offering and received compensation for investment-banking services from the company during the past 12 months. The firm’s revised target therefore arrives with BitGo showing strong reported revenue growth and expanding customer relationships, but with its valuation increasingly tied to whether higher-margin stablecoin, subscription and tokenization services can gain ground against the low-margin token-sale business.
For deeper insights on regulation shaping crypto markets, explore the possible future of crypto regulation in the US today.
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