Micron Technology is due to report fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results after the U.S. market closes on Sept. 30, with Wall Street focused less on whether the memory maker beats its already elevated targets than on whether demand for high-bandwidth memory can sustain the company’s unusually high margins into fiscal 2027.
Micron guided for quarterly revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $31, plus or minus $1. The company’s midpoint would exceed its entire fiscal 2025 revenue of roughly $37.1 billion. Analysts expect about $51.07 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $31.52 per share, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 351% and 938%, respectively.
The earnings release arrives as artificial-intelligence server spending is redirecting a growing share of global DRAM production toward high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. That reallocation is tightening supplies of conventional server and consumer memory, giving manufacturers more pricing power while also increasing the risk that a production or demand setback could hit a market priced for near-perfect execution.
Estimates cluster above Micron’s midpoint
Several major banks have published forecasts above Micron’s revenue midpoint. Citi expects $51 billion in revenue and $31.45 in earnings per share, while Goldman Sachs forecasts $51.9 billion and $32.54. UBS is more optimistic on revenue at $52.4 billion and sees earnings of $32.50 per share.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur projected revenue of $51.4 billion, gross margin of 86.2%, and earnings of $31.73 per share. Morgan Stanley modeled a more cautious outcome, calling for $50.024 billion in revenue, 86.4% gross margin, and $31.20 in earnings per share.
The narrow spread among forecasts underscores the immediate challenge for Micron. A modest beat may carry limited weight if the company’s forward outlook suggests that supply additions, weaker consumer-memory demand, or rising manufacturing costs will erode pricing power. Conversely, confirmation that HBM and server DRAM remain constrained could support expectations for another strong fiscal year.
Micron shares closed at $1,071.72 on Sept. 29. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated a $2,000 price target, implying roughly 87% upside from that close. Luria’s valuation case rests on long-term HBM supply agreements and orders placed more than a year before delivery, a structure that can make revenue more visible than in earlier memory cycles.
He also pointed to Micron’s reported price-to-earnings multiple of about seven times, compared with 40 to 60 times cited for AMD and Intel. Such comparisons have limits because the companies operate in different segments of the semiconductor market, but they reflect the debate over whether Micron’s earnings surge should be treated as a short-lived cyclical peak or as a longer-lasting change in its product mix.
HBM4 ramp will shape the outlook
The report is expected to provide fresh details on Micron’s 12-layer HBM4, the next-generation memory product designed for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform. Micron previously said the product entered mass production and shipments in fiscal 2026’s first quarter, delivering energy efficiency more than 20% better than its HBM3E generation.
Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron’s chief executive officer, said in June that the 12-layer HBM4 production ramp was progressing at roughly twice the speed of the company’s 12-layer HBM3E ramp. Micron has also said cumulative HBM shipment revenue had passed $1 billion.
Production speed alone does not settle the economics. HBM4 uses substantially more wafer capacity than general-purpose DRAM and has faced lower early yields than the preceding HBM3E generation, according to the industry estimates cited in the briefing. Yield measures the proportion of usable chips produced from a manufacturing run. Lower yields can restrict supply and lift unit costs even when final prices are strong.
Industry sourcing cited in the materials projected that Micron’s monthly HBM capacity could double to 100,000 wafers before year-end. HBM4 could account for as much as half of Micron’s HBM output by year-end, compared with an estimated 20% to 30% earlier in the year. Those milestones would show that Micron is moving from limited early shipments toward a larger contribution from its newest memory generation.
Conventional DRAM remains a major earnings lever
HBM has attracted the most attention because it sits inside high-performance AI systems, but conventional server memory may be equally influential for Micron’s near-term results. BMO channel checks indicated that rising server DDR5 prices could provide more upside to quarterly earnings than HBM, while HBM3E and HBM4 prices were also expected to rise sequentially.
DDR5 is the current generation of mainstream server memory. Its importance to Micron’s results reflects an increasingly tight relationship between AI spending and the rest of the memory market: every wafer directed to HBM can reduce supply available for standard DRAM products.
Kim Taewoo, executive vice president at Samsung Electronics, said on Sept. 29 that HBM could account for nearly 30% of global DRAM wafer capacity by 2027, up from around 20% currently. Dongwu Securities estimated HBM’s share of total DRAM capacity at 12.3% in 2024, 17.1% in 2025, 20.8% in 2026, and 22.5% in 2027. The firm estimated that HBM4 requires about three times the wafer capacity of general-purpose DRAM.
Chen Libai, chairman of ADATA Technology, said the three major memory manufacturers had sold out their 2027 capacity, with HBM and AI-server applications consuming about 70% of DRAM output. Such conditions would help explain the sharp revenue and profit forecasts around Micron, but they also leave the company exposed to any slowdown in large AI infrastructure orders.
Citi analysts have cautioned that DRAM and NAND pricing could decelerate over the next several quarters. Bernstein expects the memory cycle to begin normalizing in 2028, suggesting that the present supply squeeze may have a longer runway than past upcycles without becoming permanent.
Spending plans and rates add pressure
Micron’s fiscal 2027 guidance on gross margin and capital expenditure will be closely examined alongside its current-quarter results. Bank of America analysts have focused on whether gross margin can remain near 85%, while expecting capital spending in the mid-to-high $40 billion range, much of it directed toward cleanroom construction.
Heavy spending would expand Micron’s future manufacturing base, though it also raises the stakes around demand forecasts. Memory producers have historically faced sharp downturns after capacity expansions outpaced end-market demand. The difference in the current cycle is that HBM production is more complex and consumes considerably more capacity per unit than conventional DRAM, which may slow the pace at which usable supply reaches customers.
Market conditions could also influence the reaction to the report. Micron fell 2.61% on Sept. 28 as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 1.61% amid higher U.S. Treasury yields. Higher rates can pressure richly valued technology stocks by raising the discount rate applied to future earnings, even when company fundamentals remain strong.
Michael Burry has taken the opposing side of the bullish view. The trader known for prominent bearish positions in previous market cycles shifted Micron short exposure into June-expiry put options with a $500 strike, according to the briefing. Burry argued that the AI-driven memory shortage could fade within two years as supply catches up.
Micron’s results will test both narratives: whether constrained supply and expanding AI-memory demand can keep margins near current expectations, and whether the industry is already building the capacity that could eventually bring those conditions back toward normal.
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