Galaxy Research said Bitcoin’s bear market ended with the June 30 low, arguing that selling by long-term holders has eased and that the asset has re-established itself above its 50-week moving average, a technical level widely watched by market participants.
Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on Monday, down 0.2% over the previous 24 hours and roughly 36% below its October 2025 peak near $126,000. The distance from that high leaves the market vulnerable to renewed volatility, but Galaxy’s analysis frames the recovery from June as a shift in the underlying trend rather than a short-lived rebound.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, said Bitcoin had closed above its 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks through Oct. 18. The cryptocurrency had previously remained below that level for 44 straight weeks, making the latest stretch its longest sustained recovery above the indicator since the preceding downturn.
The $76,540 level defines the recovery
Galaxy identified Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, then near $76,540, as the principal technical level that could test its bullish assessment. Thorn said a weekly close below that threshold, followed by a failure to reclaim it within a month, would challenge the conclusion that the bear market had ended.
Moving averages smooth price data over a set period, helping traders assess whether prices are persistently gaining or losing momentum. The 50-week measure is especially closely followed in Bitcoin because it has often acted as a dividing line between stronger multi-month advances and extended periods of weakness.
During Bitcoin’s decline into the June 30 low, Thorn said the price tested its 200-week moving average and recorded its weakest weekly close relative to that indicator, ending 4.7% below it. The 200-week average has historically been viewed as a long-term support area during severe Bitcoin drawdowns.
The recovery above the shorter 50-week average places the market in a technically stronger position than it held for most of the previous 10 months. Yet the report’s own invalidation level shows that this improvement remains conditional: Bitcoin needs to hold above the $76,540 region on a sustained weekly basis rather than merely trade above it during intraday swings.
Older holders are moving fewer coins
Galaxy’s second major argument concerns the behavior of wallets holding Bitcoin for at least five years. The report said this group moved an average of 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 47,000 BTC per month in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024.
Long-held coins returning to circulation can increase the pool of Bitcoin potentially available for sale, particularly when older holders choose to realize gains after major price rallies. The slowing movement reported by Galaxy suggests that this source of distribution has become less intense than it was over the past two years.
The firm estimated that about 1.11 million BTC from five-year-plus wallets had moved since October 2024. Galaxy said exchange-traded funds and publicly listed corporate treasury companies absorbed much of that supply.
That claim places recent ETF demand in a more practical context than daily trading volumes. The question is not simply whether funds are buying Bitcoin on a given day, but whether their demand can absorb coins redistributed by holders who accumulated long before the current cycle. A slower release of older coins could reduce one source of selling pressure, though it does not eliminate risks from derivatives liquidations, macroeconomic shocks, or sales by shorter-term holders.
Fiscal conditions feature in Galaxy’s macro case
Galaxy also linked its Bitcoin outlook to U.S. fiscal conditions. The research note put U.S. federal debt at $40.44 trillion and argued that borrowing connected to artificial-intelligence infrastructure could contribute to broader credit expansion.
The connection between government debt, liquidity and Bitcoin prices remains difficult to isolate. Bitcoin has traded both with and against traditional risk assets across different market periods, and fiscal concerns do not produce a uniform price response. Galaxy’s inclusion of debt data nevertheless reflects a familiar argument among Bitcoin advocates: that a fixed issuance schedule becomes more appealing when government borrowing and credit creation expand.
The report did not present federal debt as a short-term price target or a guarantee of demand. Instead, it treated fiscal conditions as part of the backdrop for an asset whose supply issuance is set by protocol rules and cannot be increased in response to higher prices or financing needs.
AI and quantum concerns remain theoretical
Galaxy also addressed concerns that artificial intelligence or quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s security. The firm said recent cryptocurrency thefts have generally targeted exchanges, service providers, personal devices or users rather than compromising the Bitcoin protocol itself.
The report said AI does not weaken Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hash function, which secures mining, or the digital signature system used to authorize transactions. Greater use of AI could potentially make phishing, malware development and social-engineering attacks more effective, but those risks sit largely at the level of custodians and individual users rather than Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism.
On quantum computing, Galaxy said no existing machine can break Bitcoin’s cryptography. It also pointed to continuing work on quantum-resistant cryptographic upgrades and industry funding intended to reduce longer-term exposure.
Bitcoin’s network hash rate reached one zettahash per second in late October, according to the figures cited in the report. Hash rate measures the computing power miners devote to securing the network; a higher figure raises the cost of attempting to disrupt transaction validation through a majority attack.
Galaxy’s case rests on a combination of technical recovery, reduced selling from older wallets and continued institutional absorption of supply. Its most immediate test remains far simpler: whether Bitcoin can preserve weekly support above the 50-week moving average near $76,540.
As bitcoin reclaims key averages, learn when to strategically buy dips in our guide: when is the best time to buy bitcoin.
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