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Changpeng Zhao says 2026 is weak for crypto

2026-08-31 03:56

OpinionLiquidationPrice

 

Changpeng Zhao said he would exclude U.S. users from the outset if he were building a global cryptocurrency platform under the market conditions of 2017, offering one of his clearest retrospective assessments of the regulatory risks that shaped the industry’s expansion.

Speaking in a podcast interview, the Binance founder said a rebuilt platform would also block some other higher-risk jurisdictions, establish derivatives products sooner and expand its range of financial services earlier. He said he would devote more resources to regulatory communication across different countries.

The comments place jurisdictional risk ahead of the rapid-growth priorities that defined much of the last crypto cycle. Global platforms once treated broad availability as a commercial advantage, but Zhao’s account suggests that access decisions, product sequencing and regulatory engagement should be built into a company’s initial operating model rather than addressed after a platform has reached scale.

Zhao also described 2026 as a weak year for the cryptocurrency sector, saying company results could decline even as he had maintained a demanding work pace and avoided major mistakes. He did not provide forecasts or company-specific figures.

U.S. exposure and derivatives would be handled differently

Zhao’s answer on rebuilding a crypto platform concentrated on the U.S., where digital-asset businesses have faced years of enforcement actions, licensing disputes and scrutiny over whether certain products fall under securities, commodities or money-transmission rules.

Avoiding U.S. users “from day one,” as Zhao put it, would represent a major strategic trade-off. The country remains a large pool of crypto trading activity, capital and technology talent, but servicing it can require a costly compliance framework and creates exposure to overlapping federal and state agencies.

His other retrospective priority was derivatives. Crypto derivatives allow traders to gain or hedge exposure to an asset without directly buying or selling it on the spot market. Zhao said he would have introduced them earlier, along with a wider suite of financial products.

That approach reflects how derivatives became central to crypto market infrastructure, particularly for professional trading firms seeking to manage price risk. Yet these products also carry elevated regulatory and consumer-protection concerns because leverage can amplify losses and because access rules vary sharply between jurisdictions.

Zhao’s emphasis on more regulatory communication suggests he sees legal engagement as an operating requirement rather than a final-stage compliance exercise. For platforms serving users across borders, the practical challenge is less about adopting one rulebook than handling a patchwork of licensing, sanctions, anti-money-laundering and product restrictions.

Pressure came from markets and legal uncertainty

Zhao identified two periods as the most stressful of his career. The first came roughly two weeks after an initial coin offering began trading, when the token’s price declined. The second involved more than 10 months in the United States while he dealt with a legal process.

He said the U.S. experience was difficult largely because of uncertainty: uncertainty over the eventual outcome and over whether further actions could be added as the process continued. That distinction offers a view into the strain legal cases impose beyond direct financial costs. A company or executive can plan around known requirements more easily than a moving timetable and unresolved scope of liability.

In handling stress, Zhao said he deliberately separates unrelated problems. Legal meetings and product meetings, for example, should be treated as different subjects rather than allowing the emotional pressure of one to carry into the other.

He said he generally avoids personal targets tied to wealth, rankings or growth rates, preferring to focus on effort and execution. The approach contrasts with an industry that often frames success through token prices, trading volumes and user-growth milestones, metrics that can be volatile and only partly within a founder’s control.

A management system built around limited attention

Zhao described a work routine designed to keep decisions moving without turning every task into a founder-level approval process. He said he responds to messages when he sees them and can handle more than 500 in a day, partly because delayed messages are more likely to be forgotten.

His message checks take place in short windows after meetings, in the morning and before sleep. He pauses that review only during work requiring deep concentration.

On management, Zhao said he does not routinely pursue updates after assigning a task. Instead, colleagues arrange follow-ups, manage logistics and send progress reports. He said he typically keeps only “three to five” matters in mind that require his personal action.

The method depends on staff being able to drive timelines and flag decisions rather than merely wait for instructions. That division of labour can help a large organization move quickly, though it also places considerable weight on internal reporting systems and on the ability of managers to escalate problems early.

Zhao said he usually sleeps around six hours at night and adds a 30-minute to one-hour nap, putting his daily total at roughly six to eight hours. He described himself as a good sleeper about 80% of the time.

He also discussed a previous health issue, saying he underwent two minor surgeries for a herniated disc and required more than two years of recovery and rehabilitation. Prolonged sitting can still cause discomfort, he said.

Tokenization and stablecoins changed his view

Zhao said Bitcoin’s store-of-value role has held up, while its use in everyday payments remains small relative to early expectations for widespread spending. He also said blockchain-based certification for assets such as real estate has progressed more slowly than he had expected.

His views on real-world asset tokenization have shifted in the opposite direction. Zhao said he questioned whether RWA structures could work as recently as about 18 months ago, but now sees rapid growth in the area.

Tokenization generally refers to representing ownership claims or financial interests through blockchain-based tokens. The model has drawn increasing attention for products such as tokenized government debt and private credit, where issuers hope blockchain settlement and transfer systems can reduce administrative friction.

Zhao said he experienced a similar change of mind with stablecoins. He did not fully understand their utility about five years ago, he said, but later came to recognize their role within crypto markets. Stablecoins are designed to maintain a stable value, commonly by tracking a national currency such as the U.S. dollar, and are widely used to transfer value between trading venues and blockchain applications.

Outside commercial projects, Zhao said he is spending substantial time on Giggle Academy, a free education product. He said its student count grew from tens of thousands earlier in the year to about 1.2 million, and described the ability to help others as a major reason he continues to work intensely.


To navigate crypto regulation like Zhao, explore this in-depth guide on future U.S. crypto regulation.

Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.

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