Bitcoin’s recovery from a mid-October slide has left the market pinned between an $80,000 support zone tied to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers, and a heavily supplied resistance band near $87,500, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. The firm said daily closes outside that range could set the next direction: a break above $87,500 would test whether recent buyers can absorb available supply, while a close below $80,000 would bring the average cost basis of active market participants near $77,600 into focus.
The range was tested on Oct. 15, when Bitcoin briefly fell to an hourly closing low of about $80,100. Glassnode placed the average acquisition prices of both U.S. spot ETFs and its tracked group of corporate Bitcoin treasury holders within a narrow $80,000 to $81,500 interval. The corporate cohort’s estimated average cost basis stood near $80,200.
Bitcoin moved back above that area in the following hour, preventing the two groups from slipping, on average, into unrealized losses. Glassnode said daily closes have remained above the corporate treasury cost basis since Sept. 18, following earlier stretches when price traded below the line.
A sustained move beneath $80,000 would create a more difficult technical and psychological backdrop. ETF buyers and corporate holders whose purchases cluster in the band would be underwater on average, while the next major on-chain reference point sits lower. Glassnode’s “true market mean” — its measure of the average cost basis for active participants — was around $77,600, and the Oct. 15 low held above it.
Supply remains concentrated near $87,500
On the upside, Glassnode identified $86,500 to $87,500 as the market’s main barrier. Its order-book analysis showed concentrated spot sell interest in that interval, while the estimated cost basis of Bitcoin acquired six to 12 months ago stood near $86,700. That figure had declined from roughly $88,000 cited in the firm’s prior weekly assessment.
The positioning of holders from that period could add selling pressure as Bitcoin approaches their entry price. Buyers who acquired coins one to two years ago have a much higher estimated cost basis near $100,000, placing their holdings outside the immediate range.
Derivatives liquidation maps pointed in a similar direction. After the Oct. 15 selloff cleared a dense group of liquidation levels around $80,000, the largest nearby concentrations shifted above the market toward $85,000 and $87,000, Glassnode said. A further liquidation area remained near $79,600, below the October low.
Those levels can intensify a breakout rather than independently cause one. A move upward through resistance could force the closure of bearish leveraged positions, adding buying pressure. Conversely, a slide through $80,000 could expose long positions around the $79,600 area, creating a faster route toward the $77,600 true market mean.
ETF flows improve as treasury buying slows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $653 million in net inflows on Monday, Oct. 19, Glassnode reported, their largest daily intake since Sept. 22. The inflows returned weekly ETF flows to positive territory after the prior week’s withdrawals.
The rebound offers some evidence of demand near the lower edge of Bitcoin’s range, although ETF trading activity has not matched the flow recovery. Glassnode said the 30-day average ETF trading volume was below one-quarter of the level seen a year earlier. Stronger inflows accompanied by rising turnover would provide a more convincing test of whether fresh demand can clear the $86,500-to-$87,500 supply zone.
Corporate treasury accumulation has also become less aggressive. Since June, monthly net additions by Glassnode’s tracked cohort have been less than one-tenth of the peak reached in November 2024. That slowdown leaves ETFs as a more immediate source of observable institutional demand around current prices.
Selling by longer-term holders has eased as well. Glassnode said coins held for one to two years experienced a selling peak in early October after Bitcoin’s September high, but daily selling volumes subsequently fell to less than one-third of that earlier level. On-chain realized profit growth also slowed to about half the pace seen during September’s peak week, while realized losses remained broadly stable after the sharpest loss event during the 24 hours ending on the morning of Oct. 15.
Macro calendar and MSCI decision approach
Two scheduled events could test Bitcoin’s narrow trading range. The Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 interest-rate decision arrives after a period of firmer inflation indicators cited by Glassnode, including higher household inflation expectations and September readings for headline and core consumer prices that exceeded forecasts.
Glassnode also pointed to the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which it said had climbed by more than one percentage point this year to 4.8%, above the Federal Reserve’s 4% upper target bound despite the Sept. 16 rate increase. Bitcoin rose about 10% after that decision, according to the report, though the relationship between rate expectations and cryptocurrency prices remains inconsistent over short periods.
A separate equity-market event involves MSCI’s Nov. 11 publication of an index removal list after the index provider approved a rule change covering “non-operating companies.” Glassnode said a consultation test using May data had flagged Strategy and Metaplanet. Under the rule described in the report, existing constituents would need to fail the test in two consecutive annual reporting periods before removal takes effect after the Nov. 30 close.
Strategy shares fell nearly 10% on Oct. 16, their worst one-day decline since February, while Bitcoin moved little that day, Glassnode said. If MSCI includes Strategy in its removal list, funds designed to track MSCI indexes would have to sell the stock, potentially adding pressure to one of the public market’s largest Bitcoin treasury vehicles.
Altcoin leverage has cooled without a full reset
Risk appetite across altcoins weakened following the Oct. 15 Bitcoin selloff and rebound. Glassnode put the median weekend decline across altcoins at roughly 4%, the largest such drop since May. The share of tokens with funding rates above neutral fell from about 25% in late September to less than 5%, near the bottom of its two-year range.
Funding rates are periodic payments between traders in perpetual futures markets. A decline toward neutral or negative levels generally signals that enthusiasm for leveraged long positions has faded.
Open interest, the value of outstanding derivatives positions, did not fall sharply after adjusting for Bitcoin’s price move. Glassnode estimated it remained only about 5% below October’s peak. That leaves substantial leverage in place even after the correction, increasing the likelihood that a decisive move beyond either boundary of the $80,000-to-$87,500 range could produce an abrupt derivatives-led reaction.
For now, the market has absorbed a test of institutional cost bases without losing them on a daily closing basis. The next sustained move depends on whether ETF demand and reduced holder selling can overcome supply near $87,500, or whether a renewed break under $80,000 sends Bitcoin back toward the active market’s average entry price near $77,600.
Eyeing Bitcoin’s $80K–$87.5K range? Deepen your strategy with this insight-packed guide: key resistance levels.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
