Bitcoin rose above $85,000 on Monday for the first time since Jan. 29, extending a rebound that gathered pace after a weekly close at $81,120 and a sharp late-week increase in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. BTC/USD reached $85,248 as traders watched crude oil retreat below $94 a barrel after briefly moving above $100 last week.
The move put Bitcoin close to the average purchase price of US spot Bitcoin ETF holders, estimated by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode at $85,638. That level could become an immediate test for the rally: a sustained move above it would place the average ETF buyer back in profit, while rejection could encourage short-term selling around a widely watched cost-basis threshold.
The latest advance also triggered more than $600 million in cryptocurrency short liquidations over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Liquidations occur when leveraged positions are forcibly closed because traders lack sufficient collateral, and a concentrated wave of short closures can accelerate an upward move as traders buy assets to exit bearish bets.
Etf inflows accelerated before bitcoin’s move
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $435 million in net inflows on Friday, their largest daily intake since Sept. 3, according to Farside Investors. The figure followed $159 million in net crypto ETF inflows on Thursday, providing a clearer sign of renewed demand through regulated funds than the price move alone.
Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, traded under the ticker FBTC, accounted for $310 million of Friday’s total. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, did not lead daily inflows, marking a change from earlier in the month.
CryptoQuant data showed that IBIT’s holdings netflow had exceeded FBTC’s by nearly six times on Sept. 3. By Sept. 18, FBTC’s netflow was almost three times larger than IBIT’s. The shift does not establish a permanent change in market leadership, but it shows that the latest ETF demand was not concentrated in one product.
The fund flows arrived as US policymakers continued to work on cryptocurrency rules despite the CLARITY Act failing to advance in the Senate. The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved forward with crypto-related policy initiatives, though the supplied measures did not specify changes that would directly alter Bitcoin ETF operations.
Bitcoin’s rise places ETF demand at the center of the near-term market picture. Friday’s inflows were large enough to stand out after a period of uneven fund activity, while the price now sits only a few hundred dollars below Glassnode’s estimated ETF-holder cost basis.
Oil retreat eases immediate inflation pressure
Bitcoin’s climb coincided with a drop in oil prices as diplomatic contacts around the US-Iran conflict came into focus. WTI crude fell below $94 per barrel on Monday after trading above $100 last week, reducing one immediate source of inflation concern across global markets.
Majed Al-Ansari, spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, said attempts to restart talks had been underway “for the past couple of weeks.” President Donald Trump, speaking on Fox News on Sunday, described the available approaches as “wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically, or making a deal.” Trump said he would “probably be open” to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations General Assembly.
Cheaper oil can reduce pressure on headline inflation expectations, but the market has not removed the possibility of further US rate tightening. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the probability of a 0.25-percentage-point Federal Reserve rate increase in October at 53%, with almost a 40% chance of another quarter-point rise before the end of the year.
Long-dated US Treasury yields nevertheless eased as crude retreated. The 30-year yield stood at 5.301% on Monday, down from 5.425% on Sept. 11, which was its highest reading since June 2004. Lower yields can improve appetite for risk-sensitive assets, though the relationship is not automatic and remains vulnerable to shifts in energy markets or Federal Reserve guidance.
Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, is scheduled to speak Tuesday to the CFA Society Baltimore about economic conditions, recent monetary policy and his outlook for the US economy. His remarks will be closely parsed after oil’s sharp swings complicated the inflation outlook.
Technical levels narrow bitcoin’s trading range
Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index was approaching 70, a reading commonly associated with overbought conditions. The indicator does not predict an immediate reversal, but it shows the speed of the latest advance and raises the likelihood of volatile trading near resistance.
The previous local high of $82,950, reached in May, has shifted from resistance into a level traders will watch for support. Bitcoin’s ability to remain above that area would reinforce the breakout; a move back below it would put the rally’s durability under scrutiny.
Bitcoin also reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average, listed at $77,769. The average tracks price over roughly a year while placing greater weight on recent trading, making it a commonly used gauge of medium-term momentum. Corporate Bitcoin treasury holdings had an estimated cost basis near $80,500, according to the figures provided, placing another concentration of recent buying below the current market price.
The combination of ETF inflows, falling oil prices and forced short covering has lifted Bitcoin rapidly into a zone where several cost-basis and technical benchmarks converge. The next test is whether demand remains strong enough to hold above the May high while the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and geopolitical risks remain unsettled.
As Bitcoin tests new highs, sharpen your entries with ETF and macro insights in our guide here.
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