Bitcoin’s rebound toward $81,500 has run into a dense concentration of coins held near breakeven, placing the $80,000 to $82,000 area at the center of the market’s next test. Glassnode’s on-chain data shows that roughly 8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was last moved within that range, including about 5% at $80,000 alone—the largest single concentration across tracked price levels.
Bitcoin traded around $80,000 on Aug. 28 after retreating from above $81,500. The price zone is drawing attention because it combines a large on-chain cost-basis cluster with the estimated average purchase price of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, which Glassnode placed between $80,000 and $82,000.
That overlap can create a difficult market structure. Holders who bought near those levels may use a return to breakeven to sell, especially after a prolonged drawdown. At the same time, sustained ETF demand could gradually absorb that supply. Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the band would therefore depend less on a sudden burst of leveraged buying and more on whether spot demand remains durable.
Etf inflows accompanied a spot-led advance
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight consecutive trading days of net inflows between Aug. 17 and Aug. 26, totaling $2.8019 billion, according to the flow data cited for the period. August inflows through Aug. 26 reached roughly $3.282 billion.
The inflows coincided with one of Bitcoin’s largest weekly dollar gains on record. Galaxy Research said Bitcoin rose from $62,818 to $77,593 during the week of Aug. 17 through Aug. 23, a $14,775 increase. The 23.5% advance ranked as Bitcoin’s 41st-largest weekly percentage gain among 840 weekly candles tracked since July 2010, though it was the strongest percentage rise since March 2023.
Glassnode characterized the rally as a two-stage move. Short liquidations helped fuel the initial rise on Aug. 19, according to the blockchain analytics firm, before ETF creations, lower exchange balances and accumulation across several wallet-size groups supported a more spot-driven phase.
That distinction matters for the durability of the move. Rallies led primarily by futures liquidations can reverse rapidly once forced buying ends. A rise supported by purchases in the spot market, where Bitcoin is bought outright rather than through leveraged derivatives, tends to face less immediate pressure from cascading position closures.
Futures positioning cooled during the rebound
Bitcoin’s derivatives market did not show the kind of aggressive leverage build-up that often leaves a rally exposed to a sudden unwind. Glassnode reported that futures open interest, measured in BTC, declined from 645,760 BTC on Aug. 14 to 587,584 BTC on Aug. 25. The roughly 9% decline brought open interest close to a five-month low even as the price recovered.
Open interest backed by crypto collateral, including BTC, fell to about 52,000 BTC, or 11% of all futures open interest, Glassnode said. Cash- and stablecoin-margined positions made up the bulk of the remaining market.
Perpetual-futures funding rates also stayed close to neutral for most of the period. Funding is the regular payment exchanged between long and short holders of perpetual contracts; persistently high positive funding can signal that leveraged traders have become heavily positioned for further gains. Neutral readings suggested that closed short positions were not immediately replaced by an unusually large wave of leveraged longs.
The data leaves Bitcoin less dependent on a derivatives squeeze than it was during the opening stage of the rally. It also means a break above resistance would need continued spot buying rather than automatic short-covering alone.
Supply clusters define the nearby price map
Glassnode’s entity-adjusted UTXO realized price distribution, or URPD, tracks the price levels where Bitcoin was last transacted and groups holdings believed to belong to the same entity. Beyond the $80,000 to $82,000 concentration, the firm identified another major cluster near $78,000, representing about 3.7% of circulating supply. The $82,000 level ranked as the fourth-most concentrated price point.
These clusters can operate as either support or resistance depending on where the market trades. Coins held below the current price may be less likely to be sold at a loss, giving a market area some support. Coins held above or near the price can become available for sale when holders regain their original purchase price.
A separate concentration between $60,000 and $63,000 contains more than 6% of supply, according to Glassnode. That range functioned as support for much of 2026 and remains a deeper reference point if Bitcoin fails to establish itself above the current cost-basis zone.
Moving averages add another obstacle near $81,000
Bitcoin also remained below its 50-week moving average, estimated near $81,081. The asset had not reclaimed that long-term trend measure since November 2025.
The 50-week average is widely followed as an indication of whether medium-term momentum is improving or weakening. Historical episodes cited in the market discussion included May 2020 and March 2023, when Bitcoin’s recovery above the line preceded multi-month advances. Those comparisons do not establish a forecast, but they help explain why the area around $81,000 has attracted attention beyond the on-chain supply data.
K33 Research noted that Bitcoin regained its 50-day, 100-day, 200-day and 200-week moving averages within four days, comparing the speed of the recovery with conditions seen in January and October 2023. Reclaiming shorter and longer averages in quick succession improves the technical backdrop, although the 50-week line remains unresolved.
CoinShares took a more restrained view, projecting a potentially range-bound market over the next two to three months. The firm said Bitcoin could approach $80,000 but may struggle to sustain a move above that level without weaker employment data and a further repricing of interest-rate expectations supporting a push toward $100,000.
September data could test the recovery
September has often been difficult for risk assets, although the pattern is far from uniform. CryptoQuant Research found that the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of about 0.8% in September over the past 50 years. Bitcoin posted negative September returns for six consecutive years from 2017 through 2022, before recording gains in September 2023, 2024 and 2025.
The next U.S. employment report, scheduled for Sept. 4, could influence expectations for borrowing costs and therefore demand for risk-sensitive assets. A weaker-than-expected labour reading could increase expectations for lower rates, while a stronger report could keep financial conditions tighter for longer.
Bitwise Europe identified $69,000 as the short-term holder cost basis and $76,000 as its “true market mean.” Holding above $76,000 would keep Bitcoin above a major on-chain reference level, while a sustained move through $80,000 to $82,000 would show that new spot demand has absorbed one of the market’s largest nearby pools of potential sellers.
Wondering if Bitcoin can clear this heavy resistance? Learn more in this resistance-levels breakdown for traders.
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