Bitcoin’s current downturn has yet to produce a daily close below realized price, a break from the deep and prolonged drawdowns that defined the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets. Glassnode data shows the June low held above that aggregate on-chain cost basis, leaving Bitcoin on track for its shallowest cycle trough since 2017 if support around $84,000 remains intact.
The immediate test sits higher, between roughly $95,000 and $97,000. That range combines a major on-chain valuation threshold near $96,700 with concentrated options-market positioning around the $95,000 strike, creating a zone where a rebound could lose momentum.
Bitcoin had briefly slipped below its True Market Mean, an on-chain cost model that adjusts realized price by excluding certain long-dormant supply effects, before reclaiming the level within days, according to Glassnode. The True Market Mean was near $77,000 in the firm’s Sept. 21 dataset. Bitcoin also traded above the cost basis of short-term holders, typically defined as wallets that acquired coins within the previous 155 days.
A downturn without a realized-price breakdown
Realized price represents the aggregate price at which the existing Bitcoin supply last moved on-chain. It is widely watched because prolonged trading below it has historically reflected broad losses among holders and, in past cycles, periods of heavy selling pressure.
During the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, Bitcoin remained below realized price for months. Glassnode’s current-cycle data shows no daily close beneath that measure, even during June’s decline. The comparison does not rule out further weakness, but it places the recent selloff closer to a sharp reset than the extended capitulation phases seen in the prior two cycles.
At June’s low, the percentage of Bitcoin supply held at a profit dropped to a level comparable with November 2022, Glassnode said. That indicated that a substantial share of coins had fallen into unrealized losses. Yet net unrealized profit/loss, or NUPL, remained above zero through the decline. NUPL compares the market’s aggregate unrealized gains and losses; it fell deeply negative during the 2018 and 2022 bottoms.
The positive NUPL reading suggests losses were distributed widely enough to weaken sentiment without producing the broad, deeply underwater conditions that accompanied earlier cycle washouts. It also helps explain why the June low did not trigger a sustained break beneath realized price.
Support is concentrated at $84,000 and $77,000
Glassnode identified a large cluster of long-term holder supply in the $84,000 to $85,000 range. Those levels sit immediately below the market in the firm’s framework and form the first meaningful support band.
Holding above that area would preserve the route toward the $96,700 region. A renewed decline below $84,000 would shift attention back to the True Market Mean near $77,000, which Glassnode described as the more consequential downside support.
The $96,700 level is the mean MVRV price, calculated by multiplying realized price by Bitcoin’s long-run average market-value-to-realized-value ratio. MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, making the mean MVRV price a valuation level where the market’s profitability approaches its historical norm.
That level also overlaps with the approximate breakeven area for buyers who entered one to two years earlier, according to Glassnode. Such zones can create supply as holders who endured a drawdown regain an opportunity to exit near their purchase price.
Options positioning could intensify the approach to $95,000
Derivatives positioning adds another layer to the $95,000-to-$97,000 resistance zone. Glassnode reported that market-maker gamma exposure at the $95,000 Bitcoin options strike rose sharply in a single day, reaching the highest reading on the chart cited by the firm.
Gamma measures how quickly an options position’s sensitivity to Bitcoin’s price changes. When dealers hold positive gamma, their hedging activity can dampen price moves, as they tend to sell into rallies and buy into declines. Negative gamma can have the opposite effect, requiring hedging flows that reinforce a move.
Glassnode found negative gamma positioning between the spot price and $92,000, followed by positive gamma near $95,000. That structure could allow price moves to accelerate in the lower band before hedging activity becomes more restrictive near the higher strike. It does not determine direction, but it makes the $95,000 area a technically crowded level rather than a simple round-number target.
Profit-taking remains restrained despite recovery
Short-term holders have largely returned to profit, and their share of profitable supply rose above what Glassnode called its “sell-side line,” a level historically linked with greater willingness to realize gains. The condition raises the chance of supply entering the market during rallies.
Yet realized profit-taking remains muted compared with the peaks recorded in 2024 and 2025. Weekly net realized profit was only a small fraction of those earlier highs, Glassnode said, and more closely resembled late 2023 and early 2024, when profit-taking built gradually before heavier distribution appeared later.
That leaves Bitcoin in a less stressed position than at the June low but without evidence that holders are distributing coins at the pace associated with major market tops.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $1.3 billion in net inflows across the five trading days covered by Glassnode’s latest data, reversing two weeks of net outflows. The most recent daily inflow was the largest since early July, according to the firm. The return of positive ETF flows coincided with the recent price squeeze, though flow data alone cannot establish that ETFs caused the move.
Volume rises as altcoins gain ground
Bitcoin spot trading activity has strengthened from August’s lows. Glassnode measured 24-hour spot volume as 121% higher than at the August low, though its seven-day average remained about 30% below the level of a year earlier.
August also marked the first volume expansion in a year that occurred alongside rising prices, Glassnode said. The four previous periods of stronger volume had developed during selloffs, making the latest increase a more constructive sign for the rebound, provided activity remains elevated rather than fading after the initial move.
Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over the past week, with 72.5% of Glassnode’s tracked sample beating Bitcoin. Perpetual futures positioning did not show a comparable burst of leverage: open interest measured in coins was nearly unchanged over about 30 days, and fewer than half of tracked markets added positions.
That contrast differs from the broad leverage expansions seen in February 2021 and December 2024. The recent altcoin strength has therefore been accompanied by less evidence of a market-wide derivatives chase, even as Bitcoin approaches a resistance band that could determine whether the recovery extends or returns to the $84,000 support zone.
For deeper context on BTC near $100k and key resistance levels, explore our outlook in this Bitcoin roadmap.
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