Bitcoin’s 24% rally over the past two weeks has run into a dense cluster of on-chain and technical resistance, leaving the market confined largely between $76,000 and $82,000 as it trades near $77,000. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno said Bitcoin would need to close above its 365-day moving average, currently near $81,700, before the firm’s model would classify the move as the start of a new bull market.
The immediate obstacle lies closer to the current price. CryptoQuant places the nearest supply-resistance zone between $77,100 and $80,200, an area where long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC during a 30-day period earlier this year. That selling history suggests many holders may view a return to those price levels as an opportunity to reduce exposure or take profits, limiting the speed of any further advance.
A sustained move through that range would bring Bitcoin toward the 365-day average at roughly $81,700. Long-term moving averages are widely watched because they smooth out shorter-term volatility and can show whether an asset is regaining a durable upward trend. In CryptoQuant’s framework, a daily close above that level would shift the market’s technical classification, rather than merely marking another intraday spike.
Resistance levels extend toward $88,700
Above the yearly average, CryptoQuant identified $83,600 as another potential pressure point. The level is tied to a “3x Metcalfe band,” a model that estimates Bitcoin’s value using network-activity measures including active addresses.
Metcalfe-style models assume that a network becomes more valuable as its number of active participants and potential connections expands. They do not set an exact market price, but analysts use the bands as reference zones for periods when price may be stretching above the level implied by network activity.
Moreno pointed to earlier market milestones to illustrate how the model has behaved. When Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the 3x Metcalfe band stood near $138,000, according to CryptoQuant. When Bitcoin first traded at $100,000 in December 2024, the model’s 2x band was close to the market price.
The next overhead level sits near $88,700, based on CryptoQuant’s trader realized-price model. Realized price estimates the average price at which coins held by a particular group were last moved on-chain. The trader version focuses on more active market participants, whose holdings tend to turn over more frequently than those of long-term holders.
CryptoQuant said the upper band of that model has historically coincided with periods of profit-taking by traders. If Bitcoin reaches that area after a sharp rebound, it could become a test of whether fresh demand is strong enough to absorb coins returning to the market.
Long-term holders define both sides of the range
The data presents a market in which long-term holders have influenced both the resistance above Bitcoin and the support below it. Their sales helped create the $77,100-to-$80,200 supply zone, while their accumulation established a lower area of demand between $62,000 and $65,000.
CryptoQuant said long-term holders accumulated about 476,000 BTC in that lower range this year. Such accumulation zones can become relevant when prices fall because holders who acquired coins there may be less inclined to sell immediately while the market remains near or above their purchase prices.
Between the current trading range and that accumulation zone, the 200-day moving average near $70,000 stands out as the nearer support level. A decline below it would place greater focus on the low-$60,000 region, where the earlier long-term-holder purchases are concentrated.
That structure leaves Bitcoin with clearly defined thresholds rather than an open-ended price path. The market has recovered sharply from lower levels, but it remains below the area where recent holders have previously distributed coins and below the 365-day average that CryptoQuant uses as its longer-term trend signal.
Mining data adds a separate measure of network strength
Bitcoin’s price consolidation has occurred alongside continued expansion in computing power securing the network. The Bitcoin hash rate rose above 1.02 billion terahashes per second in September, according to the figures cited in the source material.
Hash rate measures the combined computing power miners direct toward processing transactions and securing Bitcoin’s blockchain. A rising figure can reflect new mining equipment coming online, more machines being deployed, or improved profitability that keeps existing hardware operating.
The measure does not determine Bitcoin’s market price, and mining expansion can lag price moves because operators make equipment and infrastructure decisions over longer periods. Yet a hash-rate record indicates that miners continue committing resources to the network despite the price failing to break decisively above the upper end of its recent range.
A breakout needs demand beyond short-term momentum
Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on whether demand can absorb the supply clustered between $77,100 and $81,700. The rally has brought the asset back into a range where long-term holders previously sold heavily, while model-based resistance levels at $83,600 and $88,700 provide additional reference points if buyers regain control.
A close above the 365-day moving average would satisfy CryptoQuant’s stated condition for a bull-market confirmation. Until then, the market remains caught between a strong two-week recovery, evidence of resilient network participation, and the selling pressure that has repeatedly emerged near the current range.
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