Bitcoin's recent pullback has pushed a large share of newer holders into unrealized losses, placing the $73,000 to $76,000 range at the center of the market's next test. Glassnode data showed that only about 38% of short-term holder supply remained in profit, down from 97.5% in early October after Bitcoin retreated roughly 10% from its September high.
Short-term holders are generally defined by Glassnode as entities that acquired Bitcoin within the previous 155 days. Their profitability often changes quickly during sharp price moves because their purchase prices sit close to the current market. The latest decline has therefore removed much of the paper profit accumulated during the late-summer rally and left recent buyers more exposed to further volatility.
Bitcoin briefly closed below Glassnode's True Market Mean of about $77,700 on Nov. 3, then reached an intraday low near $76,100 before recovering above the level. The True Market Mean is an on-chain valuation measure intended to estimate the average cost basis of coins that remain economically active in the market.
Cost basis levels are becoming the market's near-term reference points
The short-term holder cost basis, estimated at roughly $75,700, now sits close to the True Market Mean and the area where Bitcoin found buyers after the recent sell-off. Glassnode identified the $73,000 to $76,000 range as the main downside zone because it also overlaps with the 200-day moving average and clusters of potential futures liquidations.
A sustained break below $73,000 could make a quick recovery harder. Glassnode said such a move would risk shifting Bitcoin into a longer consolidation phase, where prices trade sideways while the market works through supply bought at higher levels.
The distinction matters for holders who entered during the August-to-September advance. A recovery above their average purchase prices could reduce pressure to sell into rebounds, while repeated failures near those levels could encourage more defensive positioning. Bitcoin's ability to hold around the short-term holder cost basis may therefore shape whether the drawdown remains a correction or develops into a more prolonged range.
Futures liquidations have shifted lower
The decline has also changed the balance of risk in derivatives markets. Much of the long-side liquidation exposure that had built since August has been cleared as Bitcoin moved lower, according to the data cited by Glassnode.
Remaining downside liquidation exposure was concentrated between about $73,000 and $76,000. If spot prices revisit that range, leveraged long positions could face additional forced closures, potentially adding short-lived selling pressure around an already important technical and on-chain support area.
Liquidation clusters have also built above the market. Glassnode identified the largest short-side concentration near $87,000, suggesting that a recovery toward that level could force bearish futures traders to buy back positions. Such events can accelerate rallies, although they do not guarantee that spot demand will be strong enough to sustain a move once liquidations are complete.
Bitcoin fell about 3.5% over the past week in the same data set, even as the potential short-liquidation exposure above the market increased. That leaves the market caught between nearby support where long positions could be vulnerable and higher price levels where shorts may be forced to cover.
Options market remains positioned for higher prices
Bitcoin options activity shows a noticeably different balance. Glassnode put total call open interest at about $18 billion, compared with roughly $13 billion in put open interest. Calls give buyers the right to purchase Bitcoin at a specified price, while puts provide downside protection or a way to express a bearish view.
The largest reported upcoming expiries were about $5.7 billion for Nov. 27 contracts and $12.5 billion for Dec. 25 contracts. The report placed the respective max pain levels — prices where the largest number of options would expire without value — near $80,000 and $76,000.
For late-December contracts, call interest was concentrated at $80,000, $90,000, $100,000 and $120,000 strikes. Put positioning was concentrated mainly at $60,000 and below. The distribution shows that traders are maintaining exposure to a recovery while also paying for protection against a deeper decline.
Options positioning should not be treated as a price forecast. Large call open interest can reflect hedging by market makers or structured trades rather than a simple directional bet. Yet the concentration of strikes creates levels that may draw attention as expiry dates approach, particularly if Bitcoin trades close to $76,000 or $80,000.
ETF outflows have weakened a recent source of demand
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in net outflows over the past two reporting weeks, according to the figures cited in the report. The average daily net outflow was estimated at about $115 million.
The flow data contrasts with the stronger inflow momentum seen after Bitcoin moved back above $85,000 in mid-September. ETF flows do not explain every daily move in Bitcoin, but persistent redemptions remove a source of spot-market demand that had helped absorb supply during earlier rallies.
Spot trading activity has remained comparatively elevated despite the pullback. Average daily spot volume was about $24 billion, around 1.5 times the baseline reported before the August breakout. That suggests the market has not simply become inactive; instead, Bitcoin is changing hands at a higher level of participation while recent buyers reassess their positions.
Altcoins have seen a sharper deterioration
The downturn in profitability has been more severe among smaller crypto assets. Across a dataset covering more than 300 altcoins, Glassnode said the share showing short-term holder profit conditions fell to about 12% by late October from nearly 80% in late September.
That drop indicates that the recent correction has been broader than Bitcoin alone, with many newer altcoin buyers moving underwater in a matter of weeks. Assets with thinner liquidity and less established demand can experience larger swings when traders reduce leverage or rotate toward cash and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin itself has held up better than some traditional assets over the latest two-month comparison. The report showed Bitcoin down about 2%, against a decline of less than 1% for the S&P 500 and roughly 9% for spot gold. Over the past 90 trading days, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 on half of sessions, returning to a 50% daily win rate for the first time since March 2025.
The immediate market structure now centers on whether Bitcoin can defend the cost-basis cluster around $75,700 and regain the $77,700 True Market Mean. Holding those levels would ease pressure on short-term holders and place the $80,000 options area back in view. A break below $73,000 would instead expose the lower part of the liquidation range and test whether the market can find durable demand before the large December options expiry.
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