Bitcoin climbed to an 11-week high of $72,505 on Thursday, gaining more than 4% after revisiting $71,000 earlier in the session, as oil prices, US Treasury yields and geopolitical risk all moved sharply. The advance extended Bitcoin’s gain over four days to nearly $10,000, placing the market’s attention on whether fresh spot buying can sustain the rally rather than leaving it dependent on derivatives-driven liquidations.
The move came as US equities opened lower and Treasury yields reversed upward following a volatile session in government debt markets. Bitcoin’s rise alongside a stronger oil market and unsettled bond trading offered a different pattern from the risk-off response often seen during geopolitical shocks, though the short time frame makes it difficult to separate durable demand from aggressive short-covering.
US-Iran tensions push oil higher
The immediate macro backdrop intensified after President Donald Trump said the United States would pursue the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country” against Iran. In a Truth Social post, Trump called the proposed measures “Economic D-Day” as negotiations linked to the Strait of Hormuz oil route remained stalled.
WTI crude oil rose to $87.69 a barrel, its highest level since July 24. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for seaborne oil exports from the Persian Gulf, so threats to access or shipping routes can rapidly feed into energy prices and inflation expectations.
Higher crude prices create a difficult environment for financial markets. They can raise the expected cost of fuel and transport, pressure consumer spending and complicate the outlook for interest-rate cuts. That backdrop was visible in the Treasury market, where yields turned higher after dropping sharply the day before.
Treasury yields reverse after buyback announcement
The 30-year US Treasury yield fell as low as 5.179% before rebounding to 5.266%, a rise of 9 basis points that nearly erased the prior day’s decline. The 10-year yield also recovered as traders reassessed rate expectations and the potential inflationary consequences of higher oil prices.
The US Treasury said it would at least double the size of its bond-market liquidity operations from September and would revisit the scale of debt buybacks on Nov. 4. Treasury buybacks allow the government to repurchase outstanding securities, generally targeting less-liquid issues to improve market functioning. They do not operate in the same way as Federal Reserve monetary easing, although larger buybacks can influence trading conditions and the availability of specific bonds.
That distinction matters for Bitcoin’s macro narrative. A volatile bond market can lead traders to focus on assets viewed as alternatives to government debt and currencies, but rising long-dated yields can also signal tighter financial conditions and a higher opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets. Bitcoin’s Thursday rally therefore occurred against mixed signals rather than a clear liquidity surge.
Spot demand becomes the test for the rally
Bitcoin’s price action has prompted renewed debate over whether the market is forming a more durable reversal after a weak period for spot demand. Rekt Capital said Bitcoin would need to extend its advance to challenge a framework of weakening support, while identifying $60,000 as a longer-term support area.
The analyst also argued that historical four-year Bitcoin-cycle patterns leave room for a new macro low through the end of 2026. That view places the current rebound in a broader technical context: a sharp recovery can improve near-term momentum without necessarily resolving questions about the cycle’s eventual low.
Ki Young Ju, chief executive of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, said demand had turned positive across both spot and derivatives markets, a combination he said had not appeared since October 2025, when Bitcoin last reached its record high of $126,200.
Ju described the improvement as modest and said the next month would help show whether it can persist. The distinction between spot and derivatives demand is central to assessing the rally. Spot purchases require buyers to acquire Bitcoin directly, while futures and perpetual swaps allow traders to build exposure with less capital and, in some cases, leverage.
A rally led heavily by derivatives can accelerate quickly when short positions are forced to close. It can also reverse sharply if leveraged long positions begin to unwind. Sustained spot buying, by contrast, would indicate that buyers are absorbing available supply in the underlying market rather than mainly reacting to futures-market positioning.
Volatility leaves little room for complacency
The supplied market figures indicated that more than $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within an hour during the latest move. Such liquidations can amplify an advance because traders who had bet on lower prices must buy Bitcoin to close their positions, adding mechanical demand during a fast rally.
Bitcoin’s market dominance was also reported at 58.29%, showing that Bitcoin continued to account for a large share of the total cryptocurrency market’s value. In periods of heightened macro uncertainty, capital often concentrates in the most liquid digital asset before moving into smaller tokens, though dominance alone does not establish the source or durability of demand.
Reported daily trading volume rose above $60 billion after a sharp increase, a level that will be watched alongside spot-market activity in the coming weeks. High volume during a breakout can support the case for broader participation, but elevated turnover can also reflect forced liquidations and rapid repositioning rather than new long-term holdings.
Bitcoin has so far held above the $71,000 area after its latest push, but the interaction between oil prices, Treasury yields and geopolitical developments leaves the market exposed to abrupt changes in risk appetite. The next test is whether spot demand remains positive after the liquidation-driven phase of the rally fades.
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