Bitcoin’s monthly Fisher Transform has produced a bullish crossover for only the fourth time in the asset’s trading history, according to market analyst Willy Woo, adding another technical signal to the debate over whether the July decline to roughly $57,000 marked a cycle low.
Woo said the crossover emerged in the August reading, with the underlying signal recorded in July at -2.26. Previous monthly crossovers have appeared near major bear-market troughs, including late 2022, when the indicator fell to -3.83 before turning higher. Bitcoin was trading near $77,751 in mid-September, according to the market data cited in the source material.
The signal does not establish that Bitcoin has begun a sustained rally. Monthly technical indicators move slowly and can remain positive while spot prices consolidate or revisit support. Yet its rarity gives the crossover more weight than a short-term chart pattern, particularly after Bitcoin reached a 21-month low in early July.
A long-term reversal signal returns
The Fisher Transform was developed by market technician John Ehlers in 2002 to make turning points in price data easier to identify. It applies a logarithmic calculation that converts price movements into a distribution designed to emphasize moves toward historical extremes.
On a trading chart, the tool consists of a Fisher line and a trigger line. The trigger line is derived from the Fisher reading and delayed by one period. A bullish crossover generally occurs when the Fisher line rises above that trigger line, suggesting that downward momentum has weakened and a trend reversal may be developing.
Both lines move around a zero midpoint. Negative readings can show that an asset is trading in an area of unusually weak momentum, while deeply negative readings followed by an upward crossover may signal that selling pressure is becoming exhausted.
Woo’s comparison with 2022 is central to the current interpretation. Bitcoin’s previous bear market ended after a prolonged decline that drove the Fisher Transform to -3.83 on the monthly chart. The latest crossover began from a less extreme -2.26 reading, which could indicate that the recent correction was shallower in momentum terms than the 2022 downturn, even though Bitcoin’s price retreat was substantial.
That distinction also limits direct comparisons. A crossover at a higher level may reflect a market stabilizing earlier in a correction, but it does not automatically carry the same implications as a signal that follows a deeper, longer bear market.
Weekly divergence supports the bullish case
The monthly chart is not the only timeframe producing a potentially constructive pattern. Woo said Bitcoin’s weekly Fisher Transform formed a bullish divergence during 2026.
A bullish divergence occurs when price makes lower lows while an indicator makes higher lows. Traders often view that mismatch as evidence that the market’s downward momentum is weakening, because each new price decline produces a less severe reading in the momentum measure.
According to Woo, the weekly Fisher reading reached a swing low of -2.85 near the end of December 2025, when Bitcoin traded around $90,000. Since then, the indicator has formed higher lows even as BTC/USD made lower lows, including the July slide toward $57,000.
Woo compared the setup with 2022, when a weekly bullish divergence developed during the final six months of Bitcoin’s bear market. In that episode, the divergence appeared before the broader recovery was established rather than providing an immediate signal of a sharp price rebound.
That history fits the nature of the Fisher Transform. It is designed to identify changes in momentum and possible market turns, not to predict the timing or scale of the next advance. Bitcoin can trade sideways for weeks after a crossover, and a technical pattern can fail if renewed selling drives the price below recent support.
July buyers were concentrated, not broad-based
The case for a July cycle bottom is also complicated by the character of buying activity at the lows. Woo said bid-side data showed that Bitcoin’s buying near $57,000 came from only a small number of large-volume buyers rather than broad participation across the market.
Concentrated accumulation can provide a powerful floor in the short term, especially if large buyers absorb sell orders during a period of stress. It offers less confirmation of a widespread shift in sentiment than a recovery supported by many market participants across spot and derivatives venues.
The difference matters because a durable reversal usually requires more than the disappearance of aggressive sellers. Bitcoin would need continued demand as it approaches resistance levels formed during the prior decline. A move through recent price highs, accompanied by deeper market participation, would offer stronger confirmation than the Fisher crossover alone.
Several on-chain metrics have also produced reversal signals since the July low, according to the source material. Such metrics can track holder behavior, realized profitability, network activity, or the balance between longer-term accumulation and distribution. Their usefulness depends on whether they align with price structure and liquidity conditions rather than appearing in isolation.
New futures products add another market variable
The Moscow Exchange is scheduled to list five new index futures contracts on September 22, according to the source material. The contracts could expand trading activity linked to the exchange’s covered indexes, though their direct effect on Bitcoin’s global price formation remains uncertain.
Bitcoin’s major spot and derivatives markets are spread across multiple jurisdictions and venues, making any single product launch only one factor in a much larger liquidity picture. The more immediate question for the current technical setup remains whether demand persists above the July low and strengthens as Bitcoin tests overhead resistance.
The Fisher Transform’s fourth monthly bullish crossover places Bitcoin in a technically unusual position after its sharp summer decline. The chart pattern supports the argument that downside momentum has faded, while the narrow buyer base at July’s lows leaves the market without a clear demonstration of broad conviction.
For more context on timing entries, explore Bitcoin’s broader outlook in this Bitcoin cycle analysis now.
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