Bitcoin could reach its next cycle low as late as October 2026 after trading above $126,000 in early October 2025, Swan Bitcoin Chief Executive Officer Cory Klippsten said, placing the potential bottom near $57,000 and possibly as low as $53,000 before a recovery toward the 2028 halving.
Klippsten’s estimate rests on a simple, though historically limited, timing pattern: previous Bitcoin bear-market lows have often arrived roughly 12 months after a bull-market peak. He has cautioned that Bitcoin’s history contains only a small number of full market cycles, making any calendar-based forecast uncertain rather than predictive.
The proposed range would represent a severe drawdown from the 2025 high, yet it would also leave Bitcoin well above the lows reached in earlier cycles in absolute dollar terms. Klippsten said Bitcoin could subsequently recover to around $130,000 before the next halving, currently expected in 2028.
Competing views put the possible bottom earlier
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, has outlined a nearer-term test. He said Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August if it achieves a monthly close above $63,000, a level that would shift several of 10x Research’s cycle indicators into bullish territory.
The difference between the two views is largely one of confirmation. Thielen’s framework looks for price action that signals a low may already be forming, while Klippsten’s approach gives greater weight to the elapsed time between a market peak and a trough. Both outlooks leave room for volatility, but they point to very different paths through the second half of 2026.
Bitcoin traders therefore face a market in which a move above $63,000 could improve the technical picture without necessarily resolving the longer-cycle argument. A sustained monthly close above that level would offer a more concrete market signal than a calendar forecast, while failure to hold it could keep lower targets in play.
Klippsten had previously connected the prospect of an earlier bottom to accumulation by long-term holders. In a June 2026 interview, he said those holders controlled a record 14.7 million BTC. Large balances held by participants with a history of retaining coins through market declines can reduce immediately available supply, though they do not prevent price falls when demand weakens.
That accumulation figure also complicates comparisons with earlier cycles. Bitcoin’s ownership structure, derivatives market and access through regulated financial products have changed materially since its past bear markets, so historical timing may be less reliable than it appears from a small sample.
Altcoin market becomes more selective
Klippsten argued that altcoins have largely failed as monetary competitors to Bitcoin, while suggesting that cryptocurrency and decentralized finance will increasingly become embedded in traditional finance. In his view, centralized crypto businesses would eventually operate under frameworks closer to those governing conventional financial institutions.
His assessment echoes a July report from crypto market maker Wintermute, which said institutional participation has made altcoin rallies narrower and more selective. According to Wintermute, liquidity has concentrated in assets favored by larger financial participants, while activity across the market’s “long tail” of smaller tokens has weakened.
That dynamic places more emphasis on whether a protocol can generate measurable fees, retain users and maintain liquid markets. During broad speculative rallies, smaller tokens can rise alongside major assets despite limited operating activity. In a more selective environment, sustained interest is more likely to flow toward projects with visible usage or a clear connection to trading and financial infrastructure.
Hyperliquid has emerged as one example cited in that debate. Klippsten described the decentralized derivatives platform as a business with a token, rather than treating the token purely as a speculative asset. DeFiLlama data showed Hyperliquid generated $5.9 million in revenue during the previous seven days, placing it fifth among DeFi protocols by weekly revenue at the time of the snapshot.
TradingView data showed Hyperliquid’s HYPE token up 130% year to date, while Bitcoin was down 28% over the same period. The comparison captures a period in which selective protocol-linked tokens outperformed Bitcoin, but it does not establish that revenue alone determines token prices. Token supply schedules, liquidity conditions, governance rights and broader market sentiment can all influence performance.
Revenue does not remove token risk
The appeal of protocols with cash-generating activity has become clearer as liquidity concentrates in fewer assets. Yet revenue should be examined alongside how a protocol distributes fees, funds its operations, manages token emissions and handles governance. A platform can collect substantial fees without those flows directly benefiting token holders.
For Bitcoin, the more immediate issue remains whether market prices validate an August recovery signal or continue toward Klippsten’s October cycle-low window. A monthly close above $63,000 would strengthen the case that selling pressure is easing. A renewed decline toward the mid-$50,000 range would instead bring the longer-cycle forecast into sharper focus.
Wondering when to re-enter the market? See key signals in When is the best time to buy Bitcoin.
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