Bitcoin held near $78,000 as U.S. Treasury yields climbed toward levels last seen more than a decade ago, creating a tougher backdrop for risk assets even as the cryptocurrency remained on course for its strongest August since 2017.
BTC/USD traded in a narrow range during the opening of Monday’s Wall Street session, rising about 1% on the day. The price action came as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield returned to 4.76%, its highest reading since January 2025, while the 30-year yield touched 5.269%, according to U.S. bond-market pricing. The 30-year rate stood six basis points below its highest level since January 2007.
Rising long-term yields increase the return available on U.S. government debt and can tighten financial conditions across markets. Higher borrowing costs also raise the hurdle for assets whose valuations depend heavily on liquidity, growth expectations or speculative demand. Bitcoin’s ability to remain near recent highs while Treasury yields advanced has left traders watching whether the cryptocurrency can sustain its momentum into the monthly close.
Treasury buybacks face a difficult bond-market test
The bond move followed comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on potential measures targeting the long end of the yield curve, which includes 10-year and 30-year Treasurys. Bessent said he had not yet purchased assets to support that section of the market.
The U.S. Treasury had previously said it would at least double the size of its debt buyback operations to $4 billion beginning in September. A Treasury buyback involves the government repurchasing outstanding bonds before they mature, potentially improving market liquidity and influencing the supply of specific securities. Treasury yields fell after the program was announced, but Monday’s rebound indicated that the plan has not removed pressure from longer-dated debt.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, raised doubts over how much control the Treasury could exert through the buyback program. In a LinkedIn post, Dalio said he favored diversification across asset classes and countries, an underweight position in bonds, and an overweight allocation to gold alongside a small Bitcoin allocation.
Dalio’s comments place Bitcoin in the same discussion as traditional hedges against fiscal and currency risks, although the asset’s daily trading behavior remains closely tied to broader liquidity conditions. The combination of rising yields and lower U.S. stock prices pointed to a more cautious market tone rather than a broad rush into alternative stores of value.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each fell about 0.4% during the session as markets also assessed tensions connected to new U.S.-Iran strikes. Bitcoin avoided a comparable decline, but it did not break convincingly above its recent range.
Bitcoin preserves a major weekly support level
Bitcoin entered the August monthly close holding above its 50-week exponential moving average, a widely watched long-term trend indicator. The level stood near $77,269, placing it just below the spot price during Monday’s trading.
The 50-week EMA has become a practical line for market participants assessing whether Bitcoin’s advance retains structural support. A sustained move below it would put more attention on lower support zones and weaken the case that the late-August consolidation is simply a pause within an uptrend. Holding above it into the monthly close would keep the longer-term chart picture comparatively stable despite pressure from bond markets.
Bitcoin was up almost 25% for the month, according to the price performance cited in the supplied market data. That would make August its best since 2017, a period associated with a much smaller and more retail-driven cryptocurrency market. The latest gain has occurred with Bitcoin trading as a mature macro-sensitive asset, increasingly responsive to Treasury yields, equity-market volatility and U.S. policy expectations.
Daily momentum shows signs of strain
The near-term technical picture is less straightforward. Rekt Capital, an independent cryptocurrency market analyst, identified a hidden bearish divergence on Bitcoin’s daily chart. Such a divergence occurs when price and the relative strength index, or RSI, stop confirming one another’s direction, potentially signaling that upward momentum is weakening.
Rekt Capital put Bitcoin’s daily RSI at 70.7 on Monday. RSI is a momentum measure that compares the speed and size of recent gains with recent losses; readings above 70 are commonly described as overbought. That label does not guarantee an immediate reversal, particularly during a strong uptrend, but it can indicate that a market has become more vulnerable to sharp pullbacks or consolidation.
The analyst also pointed to lower highs in the daily RSI, a pattern that could add pressure if Bitcoin loses nearby price support. Weekly RSI indicators, by contrast, remained more constructive, leaving a split between the short-term momentum warning and the broader trend.
That split helps explain Bitcoin’s choppy trading near $78,000. The cryptocurrency has preserved a key weekly average and posted an unusually strong August, but it is doing so while the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.8% and the 30-year yield remains above 5.2%. A move through the 50-week EMA would shift attention toward downside risk, while continued support above it would keep the market focused on whether Bitcoin can turn its monthly strength into a durable breakout.
Wondering if price strength will last? Dive deeper into BTC outlook in this Bitcoin forecast now.
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