Bitcoin’s rally to an eight-month high of $87,400 is facing growing signs of near-term exhaustion, with short-term holders sitting on the largest unrealized gains in 21 months while spot and futures demand have weakened, according to CryptoQuant.
The blockchain analytics firm said its short-term trader unrealized profit margin reached 33%, its highest level since December 2024. That measure tracks the paper gains held by newer market participants, a group generally more likely to sell when prices rise quickly. Elevated unrealized profit does not guarantee an immediate decline, but it gives holders a stronger incentive to lock in gains after a sharp advance.
CryptoQuant linked the reading to a potential period of profit-taking after Bitcoin pushed above $87,000. The firm said Bitcoin holders realized profits on 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22, the largest single-day total recorded in 2026. Realized profit measures coins moved on-chain at a price higher than their previous transaction price, making it a closer indication of actual selling than unrealized gains alone.
Bitcoin’s bullish trend meets weakening demand
The cautious short-term signals emerged even as CryptoQuant’s longer-term indicators remained positive. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said Bitcoin’s close above its 365-day moving average last week confirmed a new bull-market phase. The company’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index stood at 90 out of 100, reflecting favorable conditions across several of its market indicators.
A 365-day moving average smooths out a full year of price action and is often used to assess whether an asset is trading in a sustained uptrend. Bitcoin’s ability to regain and hold that level near $80,000 would preserve a technical structure that has supported the latest rally.
Yet CryptoQuant’s demand measures indicate that the market may need to absorb a growing supply of coins from holders looking to realize gains. Apparent spot demand contracted by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, according to the firm. Apparent demand is an on-chain estimate that compares changes in Bitcoin holdings with new issuance, offering a view of whether market participants are accumulating or distributing coins.
A decline of that size suggests fewer spot buyers are stepping in as Bitcoin trades near recent highs. That leaves the market more sensitive to selling from short-term holders, particularly if momentum in derivatives also continues to fade.
Speculative futures demand growth slowed sharply, CryptoQuant said, falling from 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29. Futures markets can amplify directional moves because leveraged positions may be closed quickly when prices reverse. Slower growth in speculative positioning reduces one source of buying pressure that helped carry Bitcoin higher earlier in the month.
Altcoin exchange activity adds to selling-risk signals
CryptoQuant also flagged rising exchange activity among altcoin holders. The seven-day cumulative number of altcoin inflow transactions reached 76,000, the highest reading since Oct. 17, 2025. The number of addresses depositing altcoins onto exchanges climbed to 51,000 over the same period, also reaching its highest level since October 2025.
Transfers to exchanges do not always lead to sales; coins may be moved for collateral, market making, or portfolio management. But an increase in the number of depositing addresses, alongside a rise in transactions, tends to show that more holders are preparing assets for trading.
The altcoin data matter for Bitcoin because broad risk appetite often affects the market as a whole. If traders are moving a larger volume of smaller cryptoassets onto exchanges following a rally, the pattern can point to a more defensive approach across the sector rather than fresh rotation into higher-risk tokens.
The combination of Bitcoin profit realization, slower futures demand and increased altcoin deposits paints a market that remains structurally bullish but has become more vulnerable to a pullback. Such conditions often produce volatile consolidation rather than a straight-line continuation of a rally.
ETF inflows and exchange withdrawals offer counterweight
CryptoQuant’s report also pointed to sustained institutional demand through US spot Bitcoin funds. Those products recorded $2.4 billion in net inflows during the week ending Sept. 25, pushing total assets held by the funds to $108 billion, according to the figures cited by CryptoQuant.
The same week saw centralized trading venues record net Bitcoin outflows of 31,782 BTC. Exchange outflows are commonly associated with holders moving coins into custody rather than leaving them immediately available to trade, though the signal can vary depending on the entities involved.
Fund inflows and exchange withdrawals could cushion a decline if long-term buyers continue absorbing supply released by shorter-term traders. They do not remove the risk of a correction, particularly when the pace of spot demand and futures positioning has slowed.
Bitcoin’s network fundamentals have also remained firm. The network hash rate reached a record 742 exahashes per second in early September, according to the supplied data. Hash rate measures the computing power securing the network and reflects miners’ aggregate commitment of resources, though it does not reliably predict short-term price direction.
Levels that could define a pullback
CryptoQuant identified the 365-day moving average near $80,000 as the first major area of support if Bitcoin retreats. A decline to that level would represent a test of the trend line that Moreno cited as confirmation of the latest bull-market phase.
Below it, the firm highlighted the 200-day moving average near $71,000 and the trader on-chain realized price around $67,000. The trader realized price estimates the average acquisition cost of coins held by more active market participants. When market prices approach that level, traders who bought during the recent cycle are closer to break-even, which can alter selling behavior.
Bitcoin’s current setup leaves the market caught between two forces: long-term trend indicators and fund flows remain supportive, while on-chain profit-taking and weakening marginal demand raise the odds of a shorter-term reset. Whether the $80,000 area holds would offer a clearer test of how much buying interest remains beneath the recent highs.
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