Bitcoin’s 24% rally has pushed several onchain and demand indicators into bullish territory, but CryptoQuant says the move still needs a weekly close above the 365-day moving average near $83,000 before it can be treated as a confirmed shift into a new bull-market phase.
Bitcoin traded around $79,000 after climbing above $80,000, leaving the market below the technical level CryptoQuant identified as its confirmation threshold. The gap is narrow in percentage terms, yet it places the latest rally at a sensitive point: enough buying has returned to improve market conditions, while profit-taking activity is also rising sharply.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score climbed to 80 from 30 in the past week, its highest level since October 2025. The firm said eight of the index’s 10 measures had turned bullish, reflecting stronger spot-market demand and improving conditions across its onchain indicators.
The reading places Bitcoin in a markedly different position from the weaker sentiment seen before the rally. A Bull Score of 80 signals that CryptoQuant’s composite measures are broadly aligned in a positive direction, though the firm’s insistence on a close above the long-term moving average suggests it does not yet view the technical breakout as complete.
$82,820 stands between the rally and a larger breakout
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, identified $82,820 — Bitcoin’s high from May 2026 — as the next major chart level. A sustained break above that price would put $100,000 and Bitcoin’s 2025 record high back into focus, according to Kruger.
That level also broadly overlaps with the 365-day moving-average area identified by CryptoQuant. The convergence makes the low-$80,000 range more than a routine resistance zone: it is where a recovering long-term trend would need to prove it can absorb selling from holders who bought at or near previous highs.
Bitcoin’s advance has been supported by an acceleration in spot demand, CryptoQuant said. The firm also reported that spot and futures demand are rising together for the first time since early October 2025.
Spot demand refers to purchases of Bitcoin for immediate delivery, while futures demand reflects activity in derivatives contracts tied to the asset’s price. When both rise together, the market can show stronger participation than a move driven solely by leveraged futures positioning. Yet the mix also raises the stakes if derivatives activity becomes overheated and traders begin closing positions into a pullback.
Rising profits bring selling pressure back into view
CryptoQuant’s data points to near-term pressure building beneath the bullish demand trend. The firm said traders’ unrealized profit margins had reached 20.5%, their highest level since June 2025.
Unrealized profits measure the gain holders would make if they sold their Bitcoin at the current market price. Larger paper gains tend to increase the incentive to lock in profits, particularly after a rapid rally through a widely watched round-number level such as $80,000.
CryptoQuant drew a comparison with early May, when unrealized profit margins climbed to 19% while Bitcoin was near $82,000. The firm said that period was followed by a decline of about 30%. The comparison does not establish that the current rally will repeat the same pattern, but it shows that price levels near the low-$80,000 range have previously attracted substantial selling.
Large short-term holders have already begun realizing gains. CryptoQuant said short-term holder whales — entities holding large amounts of Bitcoin for a relatively brief period — realized around $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22. That included $614 million in realized profits on Aug. 20 alone, when Bitcoin traded near $78,000 to $79,000.
The selling figures suggest some participants are treating the rebound as an opportunity to reduce exposure rather than waiting for a break above the next resistance level. Such behavior can slow an advance even if underlying demand remains healthy, especially when price is approaching an area where prior buyers may be looking to exit near breakeven.
Trading-platform inflows add to the caution signals
Bitcoin deposits to trading platforms rose to roughly 53,000 BTC, the highest level since June, according to CryptoQuant. Transfers to trading platforms do not guarantee a sale, but they can indicate that holders are moving coins into position to trade.
In the context of higher unrealized profits and whale selling, the increase carries more weight than it would during a flat market. It gives the market a larger pool of readily available supply just as Bitcoin attempts to push through resistance near $83,000.
That does not erase the constructive elements in CryptoQuant’s data. The firm’s Bull Score shows that demand and onchain conditions have improved meaningfully from the prior week, while the simultaneous increase in spot and futures demand points to participation beyond a single market segment.
The more immediate question is whether incoming demand can absorb coins being moved to trading platforms and profits being realized by large holders. A weekly close above the 365-day moving average would strengthen the case that buyers have gained control of that supply. Failure to clear the area could leave Bitcoin trading within a range where short-term gains are repeatedly sold.
Bitcoin’s market structure therefore presents two competing forces: improving demand that has lifted its broader indicators, and an expanding incentive for holders to take profits after the 24% rise. The next test sits near $82,820 to $83,000, where a technical confirmation signal and a visible concentration of potential selling pressure now meet.
For timing entries as BTC eyes $83K, learn key Bitcoin buying signals and strategies before the next breakout.
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