Bitcoin slipped below $78,000 on aug. 26 after U.S. inflation data came in slightly hotter than economists expected, adding pressure across risk assets as stocks opened lower and gold fell beneath $4,600 an ounce.
The bureau of economic analysis said the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier in july, above the 3.6% consensus forecast cited in the market. The headline index increased 0.2% from june, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.2% on the month.
Bitcoin was down as much as 1% on the day, according to trading data provided in the source material, preventing the market from mounting another attempt at the $80,000 level. The reaction placed renewed focus on whether the cryptocurrency can hold support near a closely watched long-term technical indicator ahead of its august monthly close.
Inflation data disrupts a fragile bitcoin recovery
The PCE index is the federal reserve’s preferred inflation measure, so a reading above expectations can affect assumptions about the pace of interest-rate cuts. Higher-for-longer rate expectations tend to weigh on assets whose valuations are sensitive to liquidity conditions, including large technology shares and cryptocurrencies.
The july data followed a surprise cooling in june, when the PCE index posted its first month-on-month decline in six years, according to the supplied material. July’s 0.2% monthly increase does not by itself establish a new inflation trend, but it removes some of the momentum created by that earlier decline.
U.S. equities opened lower following the release, while gold also moved down, showing the market response extended beyond digital assets. Bitcoin’s decline was comparatively limited during the initial reaction, though its inability to recover $80,000 left it near a chart level that analysts have treated as a dividing line between a short-term rebound and a more sustained recovery.
The data arrives shortly before the federal reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. Federal reserve chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver friday’s keynote address, placing monetary-policy messaging alongside inflation and corporate earnings as the main market catalysts for the remaining days of august.
Traders will be watching whether Warsh addresses the conditions required for rate cuts, particularly after the july PCE result exceeded forecasts. A speech that emphasizes persistent inflation risks could reinforce tighter financial conditions; a more accommodating tone could ease pressure on assets that have struggled to regain recent highs.
Nvidia earnings add another risk-asset test
Nvidia’s quarterly results are the next major scheduled event for markets focused on technology and artificial-intelligence spending. The company is expected to report $92.3 billion in quarterly revenue, according to estimates included in the source material.
A separate Wall Street estimate cited data-center sales of $85.4 billion for the quarter. Data-center revenue has become the central measure of demand for Nvidia’s AI hardware, making the company’s results relevant far beyond the semiconductor sector. A major earnings surprise, in either direction, could influence sentiment toward high-growth stocks and other assets that often move with shifts in risk appetite.
Raymond James expects Nvidia’s CPU revenue to grow from 3% of total company revenue to 5% by 2028, according to the material provided. That forecast points to a gradual expansion beyond the graphics-processing units that have powered the company’s recent growth, though the immediate market focus remains on current data-center demand and management’s outlook.
Bitcoin does not trade as a direct proxy for Nvidia, but both have been sensitive to broader liquidity expectations and technology-led moves in equity markets. The pairing of an inflation release, a central-bank gathering and Nvidia results gives markets several reasons to remain volatile through the monthly close.
$77,251 becomes a monthly-close level
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital identified bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average, near $77,251, as a critical threshold for the august close. An exponential moving average gives greater weight to recent prices than a simple moving average, making it a commonly used tool for tracking shifts in momentum.
According to Rekt Capital, bitcoin last achieved a monthly close above the 50-week EMA in october 2025. Reclaiming the level would improve the chart’s medium-term structure, while another rejection could preserve a series of lower highs that the analyst says has been in place since that month.
Rekt Capital also described the prior week’s rally, which the source material said included gains of more than 25%, as potentially consistent with a bear-market relief rally if bitcoin continues to make lower highs beneath descending resistance. That framework makes the price action around the downward-sloping resistance line, rather than a single intraday move below $78,000, especially relevant into month-end.
The immediate question is whether bitcoin can stabilize around its 50-week EMA while macro markets process the latest inflation reading. A close above the level would give the rebound a stronger technical foundation. A close below it would leave the $80,000 area as resistance and keep attention on lower support zones identified by chart analysts.
Bitcoin’s network fundamentals were also cited as a counterweight to the weak price action, with processing power recently reaching 500 exahashes per second in the supplied material. Hash rate measures the computational power securing the network and is separate from short-term price direction. The market’s next move is more likely to be shaped by inflation expectations, federal reserve communication and the august close than by that security metric alone.
Wondering if this dip is a buy? Read whether you should buy Bitcoin while it’s still above $70,000 before making your next move.
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