Bitcoin’s relationship with gold strengthened sharply during the latest selloff in U.S. government bonds, while its link to U.S. equities weakened, offering a rare period in which the cryptocurrency traded more like a macro-sensitive alternative asset than a technology proxy.
Bitwise data cited by André Dragosch showed Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold reaching its highest level since 2020 by the end of August. The move coincided with rising long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, a decline in bond prices, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s increased purchases of longer-term government debt.
Bitcoin gained 22.4% in the week after yields moved higher, its strongest weekly advance since March 2024, according to Dragosch. Gold rose about 5% over the same period, while stocks declined. The split placed Bitcoin and gold on the same side of a market move that had been driven by concern over long-term borrowing costs and pressure on Treasurys.
A return to a 2020-style correlation pattern
The previous comparable reading in Bitcoin’s correlation with gold came during 2020, when fiscal support and monetary easing reshaped markets during the Covid crisis, Dragosch wrote. That period also pushed attention toward assets viewed as potential hedges against currency debasement and unusually loose financial conditions.
Bitwise’s 90-day measure showed Bitcoin moving inversely to the U.S. Dollar Index at the end of August. A weaker dollar can support dollar-priced assets, including gold and Bitcoin, because it reduces the cost for buyers using other currencies and can reflect changing expectations for U.S. interest rates.
The latest move unfolded as the U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion, according to U.S. Treasury data. The debt figure has become a recurring part of the market debate around gold and Bitcoin, though correlation alone does not establish that debt concerns were the direct cause of either asset’s price gains.
Bitcoin has often traded alongside high-growth technology shares during periods when liquidity and risk appetite dominated market pricing. Its recent behavior suggested a more complicated picture: bond-market stress appeared to matter more than the direction of equities during the August rally.
Equity correlation faded during the rally
Glassnode reported on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell toward zero as the cryptocurrency rose in August. U.S. stocks were largely flat across the same stretch, meaning Bitcoin’s gains were not simply an extension of a broad equity advance.
A separate measure cited by ETF analyst Eric Balchunas found that Bitcoin had shown a lower correlation with U.S. stocks over the preceding six months than gold, small-cap stocks, emerging-market equities and Treasurys. Balchunas placed Bitcoin’s longer-run correlation at roughly 0.40, below the comparable readings he cited for gold and Treasurys during the recent period.
The decline in Bitcoin’s link with the Nasdaq 100 was also pronounced. Its daily correlation with the technology-heavy index reportedly fell from about 60% to 33% by late August, while its correlation with gold moved above 50%.
Those figures describe a short period rather than a permanent change in Bitcoin’s market identity. Glassnode noted that previous breaks between Bitcoin and equities during sovereign-bond selloffs have often been temporary. Once immediate pressure in rates markets eases, correlations can re-form quickly as macro traders return to broad risk positioning.
ETFs concentrated demand near recent highs
Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 near the end of August after gaining roughly 25% for the month, before retreating toward $76,000. It traded around $77,600 during the period covered by Glassnode’s report, close to a separate BTCUSD quote of $77,720.50.
The pullback placed a substantial share of recent buyers near or above the market price. Data cited in the supplied material put the average purchase range for new spot Bitcoin ETF demand between $80,000 and $83,000. That zone overlaps with an area Glassnode identified as containing supply held by long-term holders, between $83,000 and $86,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed an average of $290 million a day during the rally’s peak, while daily trading volume remained near $3 billion, Glassnode said. The supplied figures also placed monthly net inflows into the funds at $3.52 billion and total ETF net assets at $99.61 billion by the end of August, up 31% over the month. Monthly trading volume was reported at $58.63 billion.
Sustained ETF demand can provide a visible source of spot-market buying, but fund flows can reverse when prices decline or broader financial conditions tighten. The concentration of recent purchases in the low-$80,000 range could make that area an important test if Bitcoin attempts another advance.
Profitability data points to a less stretched market than May
At roughly $78,000 in late August, Glassnode estimated that 68% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was held at a profit. That compared with 65% when Bitcoin traded near the same level in May.
The difference indicates that coins changed hands at higher prices during the intervening period, reducing the amount of supply with large unrealized gains at that price point. Such measures can help show where holders may be more likely to sell, although they do not determine short-term price direction.
Glassnode placed Bitcoin’s main accumulation floor between $62,000 and $65,000. That range represents a zone where significant on-chain supply was accumulated, making it a potentially consequential area if the market faces a deeper correction. The $77,000 level has also drawn attention after the late-August retracement, but it remains a trading reference rather than a guaranteed support level.
Bitcoin’s August performance offered evidence that it can occasionally move closer to gold during stress in sovereign debt markets. Whether that relationship persists will depend less on a single correlation reading than on the path of Treasury yields, the dollar, ETF demand and the willingness of holders near recent highs to keep their coins rather than take profit.
Wondering whether bitcoin really rivals gold as a safe haven? Explore the deeper comparison in Gold vs Bitcoin now.
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