Six of the largest U.S. banks will report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 13 and 14 as rising Treasury yields reshape expectations for lending income, securities portfolios and Wall Street dealmaking. The results could provide an early read on whether banks can convert higher long-term borrowing costs into stronger revenue without triggering renewed pressure on deposits, credit quality or capital markets activity.
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are scheduled to report on Oct. 13, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Oct. 14. Wells Fargo expects to release results at about 7 a.m. ET and hold its earnings call at 10 a.m. ET.
Consensus estimates compiled by LSEG point to year-on-year profit gains of as much as 20% at major lenders. The forecasts arrive after a weaker stretch for bank stocks: the KBW Bank Index fell 6% during the third quarter and stood about 13% below its August closing high.
Higher yields create gains and risks for lenders
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.28% on Oct. 7, while the two-year yield was 4.77%, according to the Federal Reserve’s H.15 release. The gap places banks in a familiar but difficult position. Higher long-term rates can support loan yields and interest income, particularly on newly originated commercial and consumer credit. They can also lower the value of bonds and other fixed-income securities already held on bank balance sheets.
Management commentary on deposit costs will be closely watched. Banks have spent much of the rate-hiking cycle competing for deposits through higher savings rates, certificates of deposit and money-market products. If customers continue moving cash into higher-yielding accounts, the benefit of higher loan pricing can narrow.
That issue extends beyond the banking sector. Treasury yields above 5% give traders and institutions a liquid, government-backed return that competes with riskier assets, including digital tokens. Bank executives will not determine cryptocurrency prices, but their assessments of deposit flows, credit demand and financial-market activity can help shape the broader appetite for risk before the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27-28 policy meeting.
Profit forecasts remain strong at major banks
LSEG expects JPMorgan to report third-quarter earnings per share of $5.94, compared with $5.07 a year earlier. Wells Fargo is projected to earn $1.85 per share, up from $1.66, while Citigroup is expected to post $2.41 per share, compared with $2.24 a year earlier.
These forecasts suggest that the largest lenders are entering the reporting period with a substantial earnings cushion despite the decline in bank share prices. Their business models are diverse enough to offset weakness in one unit with strength in another, though the balance differs sharply from firm to firm.
JPMorgan has indicated that investment-banking fees and trading revenue could increase by the mid-to-high teens from a year earlier. Bank of America has warned that investment-banking fees may decline by at least 10%. Goldman Sachs has described a more subdued quarter, with weaker fixed income, currencies and commodities, or FICC, revenue partly offset by stronger equities performance.
The differing outlooks reflect a capital-markets environment that was active over the first nine months of the year but slowed during the third quarter. According to LSEG, global mergers and acquisitions totaled $3.9 trillion in the first nine months of 2026, a 28% increase from the same period a year earlier and the strongest January-to-September total since 2001. The number of announced deals, though, fell 8%.
Deal volumes slowed as yields climbed
Global M&A value reached $993.0 billion in the third quarter, according to LSEG, down 41% from the prior quarter. It was the first quarter below $1 trillion since the second quarter of 2025.
Equity issuance also lost momentum from the preceding quarter. LSEG recorded $284.0 billion in global stock issuance during the third quarter, down 26% quarter on quarter but 39% higher than a year earlier. Excluding special purpose acquisition companies, initial public offering proceeds reached $215.0 billion year to date, the highest level since 2021.
Several prospective listings, including Oura and SB Energy, were delayed amid the late-September rise in yields. For the banks underwriting offerings and advising on acquisitions, the issue is less the overall pipeline than the willingness of companies and buyers to proceed when financing costs move quickly.
A prolonged period of elevated yields could restrain debt-funded acquisitions and reduce the number of companies willing to test public markets. A stabilization in yields would give banks more visibility on financing conditions and could release transactions that have been paused rather than cancelled.
Consumer credit remains stable, with pockets of strain
Credit indicators offer a comparatively reassuring backdrop for lenders’ consumer businesses. The Federal Reserve said the credit-card delinquency rate across all commercial banks was 2.85% in the second quarter of 2026. That marked an eighth consecutive quarterly decline and remained below the 3.22% cycle high reached in the second quarter of 2024.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that total U.S. household debt stood at $18.771 trillion at the end of the second quarter, down 0.1% from the previous quarter. Credit-card balances rose by $21.0 billion during the quarter to $1.263 trillion, an increase of $54.0 billion from a year earlier.
The New York Fed also reported an annualized serious-delinquency transition rate of 6.97% for credit-card balances newly moving into 90-days-past-due status, versus 6.93% a year earlier. That measure shows that while headline delinquency rates have improved, a portion of households carrying revolving debt remains under pressure.
Bank executives’ outlooks for consumer spending, charge-offs and loan demand will therefore carry more weight than a single quarter’s earnings beat or miss. Comments on whether borrowers are becoming more cautious could also indicate how long elevated rates may remain manageable for households.
Stress tests show capital buffers remain intact
The Federal Reserve’s 2026 stress tests found that all 32 assessed banks remained above their minimum common equity tier 1, or CET1, capital requirements under the regulator’s severely adverse scenario. The aggregate CET1 ratio fell by 1.6 percentage points in that scenario.
The test modeled more than $708.0 billion in total losses, including about $200.0 billion in credit-card losses, roughly $160.0 billion in commercial and industrial loan losses, and about $75.0 billion in commercial real estate losses. Its scenario assumed unemployment would peak at 10%, home prices would fall 30%, and commercial real estate prices would decline 39%.
The Federal Reserve said the results would not change large-bank capital requirements, which are expected to remain in effect through 2027. Citigroup has said its 2026 share repurchases are expected to exceed the $13.0 billion it bought back in 2025.
The earnings calls will now test whether banks can maintain that capital strength while navigating a more expensive funding environment. Fourth-quarter forecasts for net interest margins, deposit pricing, loan growth and advisory pipelines may prove more influential than the headline profit figures, particularly with the next Fed decision arriving less than two weeks after the final major bank reports.
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