Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reach $150000 by 2027

Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and roughly $300,000 at a projected cycle peak in 2029, arguing that a more durable ownership base and growing demand through exchange-traded funds could make the current market downturn less severe than earlier Bitcoin cycles.

The research firm set out the forecast in a client note released Wednesday, maintaining its view that Bitcoin remains in a four-year cycle while revising the timing and shape of the expected recovery. Its base case places Bitcoin near $125,000 by the end of 2026 before rising to $150,000 in the middle of 2027.

Bernstein also retained a more bullish accelerated scenario. Under that model, Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and peak near $500,000 in 2029. The firm kept its much longer-term estimate of approximately $1 million by the end of 2033, separating that forecast from its projected next-cycle high.

The note paired the Bitcoin outlook with a reduced price target for Strategy, the Bitcoin-focused corporate treasury company formerly known as MicroStrategy. Bernstein cut its target to $350 from $450 but retained its positive rating, saying the lower figure reflected an updated Bitcoin cycle model and faster expected dilution from Strategy’s equity issuance.

Strategy closed Tuesday at $126.83, meaning Bernstein’s revised $350 target represented implied upside of about 176%. The company held 840,447 BTC, according to the note, equivalent to roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s eventual 21 million-coin supply.

A shallower drawdown than past Bitcoin cycles

Bernstein’s case rests partly on the view that Bitcoin’s ownership and demand structure has changed since prior boom-and-bust periods. The analysts said Bitcoin had risen 28% over the previous 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak.

A 50% retreat remains a sharp decline for an asset with Bitcoin’s market value, but Bernstein compared it with drawdowns of 75% to 90% in prior cycles. The analysts linked the relatively smaller pullback to demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and companies buying Bitcoin for their corporate treasuries.

The firm also cited supply data showing that about 59% of Bitcoin had not moved on-chain during the preceding 12 months. Long-held supply can reduce the amount of Bitcoin immediately available for sale, although it does not prevent holders from moving coins when market conditions change.

Bernstein continued to base its valuation framework on a multiple of Bitcoin’s marginal production cost, referring to the expense incurred by miners to produce an additional coin. The model is not a direct price predictor, but it gives the firm a way to measure Bitcoin’s price relative to mining economics and historical cycle patterns.

Bitcoin and gold ETFs return to trading spotlight

Signs of renewed activity in defensive and alternative-asset products also appeared in the ETF market. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said Tuesday that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, trading under the ticker IBIT, and SPDR Gold Shares, known as GLD, had returned to the 10 most-traded ETFs.

According to Balchunas, the two products displaced several semiconductor-focused ETFs that had ranked among the most actively traded funds earlier in the summer. Trading volume does not establish whether the activity came from buying, selling, hedging, or short-term positioning, but the ranking points to renewed attention on Bitcoin and gold products in a market increasingly focused on interest rates, government debt and currency risk.

IBIT is a spot Bitcoin ETF, meaning it is designed to hold Bitcoin rather than futures contracts. Its presence among the most heavily traded ETFs gives large market participants a regulated, liquid route to gain or reduce Bitcoin exposure without directly managing digital assets.

Gold’s simultaneous return to the most-traded ETF group places Bitcoin alongside a traditional hedge asset in the current market discussion. The two assets have different histories and risk profiles, yet both often draw attention when traders are reassessing the outlook for currencies, sovereign borrowing and real interest rates.

Debt and borrowing costs shape Bernstein’s macro view

Bernstein said the four-decade era of generally falling interest rates has ended as government debt burdens and borrowing costs increase. The analysts cited U.S. sovereign debt of $40 trillion and argued that higher yields can feed into a self-reinforcing fiscal cycle: rising interest expense expands deficits, which then creates a need for additional borrowing.

That macro argument underpins the firm’s positive long-range stance on Bitcoin. Higher public borrowing requirements do not automatically translate into higher Bitcoin prices, and Bitcoin has historically moved sharply in both directions during changes in monetary policy. Bernstein’s view is that persistent concern over debt servicing and the purchasing power of major currencies could support demand for scarce assets over a longer period.

The forecast also assumes that spot ETFs and corporate treasury accumulation will remain meaningful sources of demand. Those channels have changed the way institutions and public companies can access Bitcoin, but they introduce their own risks. ETF flows can reverse quickly, while treasury buyers may face pressure to sell or slow purchases if their financing costs rise or their shares trade at discounts.

Strategy’s leverage remains central to the equity call

Strategy is especially exposed to this dynamic because its operating and capital-raising strategy is closely tied to Bitcoin accumulation. The company’s 840,447 BTC holding makes its stock a highly leveraged way for traders to gain Bitcoin-related exposure, alongside risks tied to debt, preferred shares, equity issuance and the premium or discount applied to its Bitcoin holdings.

Bernstein estimated that Strategy has about 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest payments and preferred-dividend obligations. That assessment addresses near-term balance-sheet capacity, though the company’s longer-term financial flexibility will depend heavily on its ability to raise capital and on Bitcoin’s market performance.

By lowering Strategy’s target even while keeping a positive rating, Bernstein drew a distinction between its constructive long-term Bitcoin outlook and the more immediate effects of dilution on shareholders. The revised projection suggests the firm expects Bitcoin’s recovery to remain substantial, but less front-loaded than in its previous model.