Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined $44.8 billion in trading volume in June, marking a 75% jump from May’s $25.66 billion as FIFA World Cup 2026 activity accelerated across prediction markets. The sharp rise places both platforms among the strongest-performing decentralized venues this year.
Kalshi led the surge, posting $31.5 billion in volume, up 87.4% from $16.81 billion in May. Polymarket followed with $10.26 billion globally, a 45% increase from $7.08 billion. Its U.S.-regulated arm contributed $3.04 billion, up from $1.77 billion a month earlier, extending steady domestic growth seen through the spring.
World cup fuels massive betting interest
The World Cup, which kicked off on June 11, has been a primary driver of activity. On Kalshi, contracts predicting the tournament winner attracted more than $832 million, with roughly 35% of traders backing France.
Polymarket also saw strong engagement across individual match markets, where contracts generated between $500,000 and $2 million per game. These event-based contracts accounted for a substantial share of overall volume as the tournament progressed toward its July 19 conclusion.
Regulatory pressure intensifies in the United States
Despite the rapid growth, both platforms face mounting scrutiny from U.S. state regulators. More than a dozen states have launched legal challenges, arguing the firms may be offering unlicensed gambling through sports-based markets.
Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintain that federal oversight permits nationwide access to these contracts, asserting that such authority supersedes state-level restrictions. However, states continue to push back, with New Jersey lawmakers advancing legislation on June 30 to tax operators, potentially creating a fragmented compliance landscape if adopted more broadly.
Shifting dynamics as tournament advances
As the tournament moves into its knockout phase, trading patterns are expected to evolve. With fewer matches remaining, activity is likely to concentrate on high-stakes games, particularly as unpredictable outcomes reshape expectations.
Underdog teams such as Cape Verde and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have advanced deeper into the competition, while traditional contenders have faced tight contests. France required a standout performance to advance past Sweden, and England narrowly overcame DR Congo, underscoring the uncertainty driving market participation.
Outlook hinges on post-tournament momentum and regulation
Attention is turning to whether elevated trading levels will persist after the final match. Continued strength would signal that platforms have retained new traders beyond the tournament cycle, while a sharp drop could indicate that recent gains were largely event-driven.
Regulatory developments will also play a defining role. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is working to formalize rules that would broadly allow sports outcome contracts while restricting markets prone to manipulation, such as those tied to individual player incidents. At the same time, ongoing legal disputes, including Kalshi’s challenge against Illinois over taxes and licensing requirements, are shaping the broader question of whether federal or state authorities will ultimately control this rapidly expanding market.
Explore how sports-driven prediction markets could evolve next in this detailed outlook for traders.
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