U.S. lawmakers are advancing several digital asset bills, but time constraints and political uncertainty are narrowing the chances of major legislation passing this year.
Clarity act faces uphill battle
The CLARITY Act remains the centerpiece of current efforts, requiring 60 Senate votes to move forward. With roughly 40 legislative days left, including the lame-duck session, and national elections approaching, the probability of passage is seen as limited.
The bill was added to the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, 2026, making it eligible for consideration. However, prediction markets currently estimate only a 43% chance of it becoming law this year. Upcoming House Financial Services Committee hearings in mid-July are expected to shape debate but are unlikely to resolve vote uncertainty.
Republican lawmakers may need to negotiate with the White House on ethics provisions while securing support from undecided senators. Without a compromise, the legislative path could stall.
Agencies prepare for stronger regulatory role
If Congress fails to act, federal regulators are positioned to expand oversight through rulemaking. A March 2026 agreement between the SEC and the CFTC signals closer coordination, reducing past jurisdictional conflicts and creating a more unified regulatory approach.
This cooperation suggests both agencies are prepared to act decisively using existing authority, potentially shaping the digital asset market in the absence of new laws. However, the CFTC’s ability to act is constrained by a shortage of commissioners, with four seats currently unfilled, limiting decision-making capacity.
Despite this, CFTC leadership has indicated rulemaking will continue without delay.
Tax provisions gain traction
While broader legislation faces obstacles, several crypto-related tax measures are more likely to advance before year-end if attached to a larger fiscal package.
These include provisions on staking taxation, small transaction exemptions, wash-sale rules, and reporting requirements. Legal experts view these as technical adjustments aimed at improving compliance rather than major policy shifts, making them more politically viable.
Developer protections and stablecoin rules progress
Elements of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act have been folded into the CLARITY Act, including language clarifying that developers who do not custody user funds are not considered money transmitters. This provision has gained strong industry backing but still awaits final approval.
Separately, regulators are implementing the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, signed into law in 2025. Draft rules released in June 2026 propose customer identification requirements similar to banking standards, with a public comment period underway.
Prediction markets in regulatory spotlight
Rapid growth in prediction markets is drawing increased attention from regulators. Trading volume has surged from under $1 billion in mid-2024 to nearly $24 billion by April 2026.
The CFTC has proposed a framework that would allow certain event-based contracts, such as those tied to sports, while restricting markets linked to sensitive events like war or terrorism. The proposal remains under review, and jurisdictional questions persist over whether these markets fall under financial regulation or broader betting laws.
Leadership changes add uncertainty
Upcoming departures of key policymakers could further complicate the regulatory landscape. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce is set to leave in November 2026 after completing two terms, while Senator Cynthia Lummis, a central figure in bipartisan negotiations, is also stepping down.
Their exits are expected to shift the balance of expertise and influence in digital asset policymaking.
Outlook remains uncertain
As the legislative calendar tightens, the window for passing comprehensive digital asset reform is shrinking. While targeted measures such as tax provisions have clearer paths forward, broader market structure legislation faces significant hurdles.
For now, the direction of U.S. digital asset policy is likely to depend on a mix of limited congressional action and increasingly assertive regulatory oversight heading into 2026.
As U.S. rules tighten, explore how regulation reshapes crypto in this in-depth outlook through 2026.
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