TD Cowen has cut its split-adjusted price target for Nakamoto Inc. to $17 from the equivalent of $40, reducing its valuation by 58% as the bank lowered expectations for Bitcoin and assumed the company would pause further purchases of the cryptocurrency through 2026. The firm kept its buy rating on Nasdaq-listed NAKA, whose shares were recently trading at $4.65, implying roughly 275% upside under TD Cowen’s revised base case.
The downgrade in the target underscores the degree to which Nakamoto’s common stock has become tied to Bitcoin’s direction. TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete said the company’s debt and preferred securities amplify the effect of Bitcoin price moves on the value remaining for common shareholders.
Nakamoto’s shares have fallen more sharply than Bitcoin this year. NAKA is down more than 71%, according to the figures in TD Cowen’s note, compared with an approximately 26% decline in Bitcoin over the same period. That gap reflects both the market’s reassessment of Bitcoin-treasury companies and the financial structure Nakamoto has used to build its holdings.
TD Cowen assumes Bitcoin returns to $100,000 in 2026
The bank’s new valuation assumes Bitcoin recovers to $100,000 by the end of 2026. That level would remain about 25% below Bitcoin’s $126,000 all-time high reached last October, according to the assumptions outlined by TD Cowen.
The analysts also assume Nakamoto makes no additional Bitcoin purchases before 2027. That represents a more conservative outlook for a company whose strategy has shifted toward holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet while operating media, asset-management and advisory businesses related to the asset.
The prior target can appear unusually low without accounting for Nakamoto’s reverse stock split. The company completed a 1-for-40 reverse split in May, meaning TD Cowen’s earlier $1 target translates to $40 per share on the current share-count basis. The new $17 target is therefore a substantial reduction rather than an upgrade created by the split.
Bitcoin was trading near $65,000 on July 27, based on figures supplied with the TD Cowen report, leaving it well below the bank’s long-term base-case assumption. A recovery toward $100,000 would lift the marked value of Nakamoto’s holdings, but the bank’s analysis indicates that rising asset values do not flow directly to common equity because creditors and holders of preferred securities have claims on the company’s capital structure.
Debt structure increases common-share volatility
Nakamoto held 4,467 BTC, worth roughly $290 million at the market prices cited in the supplied material. The company ranks as the 22nd-largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, according to Bitcoin Treasuries, a platform that tracks corporate and institutional Bitcoin holdings.
TD Cowen estimated that Nakamoto’s Bitcoin holdings could be valued at about $521 million by year-end under its assumptions. The analysts cautioned that obligations linked to debt and preferred instruments reduce the portion of that value available to common shareholders.
That structure can produce sharper movements in NAKA than in Bitcoin itself. When Bitcoin appreciates, the company’s fixed financial obligations account for a smaller share of its asset value, potentially increasing the value attributed to common stock. When Bitcoin declines, the same obligations remain in place while the value of Nakamoto’s treasury falls, leaving less residual value for shareholders.
The distinction has become increasingly relevant for publicly traded companies that finance cryptocurrency accumulation through debt, convertible instruments or preferred equity. Such structures can offer companies a way to expand Bitcoin exposure without immediately issuing common shares, but they also add financing costs, maturity schedules and repayment risks that do not exist for an entity simply holding Bitcoin without leverage.
Nakamoto has refinanced debt and approved buybacks
TD Cowen highlighted several recent steps aimed at improving Nakamoto’s balance sheet. The company repaid approximately $45 million of debt, extended $105 million of principal to June 2027 and reduced its borrowing costs, according to the analysts.
The company also authorized the repurchase of up to $25 million of its common shares. A buyback authorization gives management the option, rather than an obligation, to acquire stock in the market. If executed, repurchases could reduce the number of outstanding shares, although they would also use capital that could otherwise support operations, debt reduction or Bitcoin purchases.
Nakamoto has also completed the closure of its legacy healthcare clinics, according to the material provided. The company is now focused on Bitcoin media, asset management and advisory services, alongside its treasury strategy.
That operational reset leaves the stock more directly exposed to the performance of its Bitcoin holdings and to management’s ability to develop revenue from its remaining business lines. The closure of the clinics may simplify the corporate story, but it also removes a legacy operating segment at a point when the value of the Bitcoin treasury has declined with the market.
A bullish rating with a lower tolerance for risk
TD Cowen’s retained buy rating indicates that the bank still sees substantial value potential if Bitcoin recovers and Nakamoto’s financing position remains manageable. Yet the lower target and the assumed pause in purchases show a more restrained view of how quickly the company can build value through further treasury accumulation.
For NAKA traders, the revised outlook places attention on three connected variables: Bitcoin’s price, the company’s debt and preferred-equity burden, and whether management preserves cash rather than adding to its Bitcoin position during a weaker market. TD Cowen’s $17 target depends on a Bitcoin recovery that remains far above current levels, while the share’s recent decline illustrates how quickly leverage can magnify a downturn in the underlying asset.
Wondering if Bitcoin can rebound enough to lift NAKA? Explore BTC’s path to $100K in this analysis.
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